2024 New York Mets O/U: Why Mets Will Reach the OVER

The 2023 New York Mets had a season that many people felt was one of their worst ever. With a 75-87 record and a fourth-place N.L. East position, it was almost impossible to not imagine some changes being made for the team and organization. And that’s exactly what happened.

As we fast-forward to 2024, the new president of baseball operations David Stearns, and new manager Carlos Mendoza are aiming to prove to the world that they’re contenders this year. According to FanDuel, the projected Mets win total is 81.5. However, here are some reasons why they will get to OVER that amount.

The 2024 New York Mets Will Win OVER 81.5 Games

The “Baby Mets”

This is an important one. For a good portion of last season, the Mets were known for their production from young players who came from the minor leagues. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Francisco Álvarez were the three youngsters who started the 2023 season as rookies. These guys certainly have the capabilities to shine as sophomores this year.

Let’s start with Álvarez. By now it’s obvious that he is the team’s starting catcher moving forward. For a guy who’s in his early 20s, it’s amazing how much he has progressed thus far. Statistically, he hit 25 home runs and 63 RBIs in 123 games during his rookie year last season.

Álvarez has already gotten off to a good start in spring training, and his English has gotten better. That’s important because he can communicate better with his teammates on and off the field. In fact, according to The Athletic, a goal that Álvarez has for this year is to be a better speaker by bringing a stronger voice to team meetings — something he admitted was a struggle for him last year. Álvarez is going to be an important player for the Mets from this point on, so it’ll be critical to watch him perform throughout the year.

As for Baty and Vientos, they both have a lot of work to do. That’s because they both struggled last season. However, that doesn’t mean they don’t have a chance to improve themselves this season. Vientos is likely going to be the team’s go-to designated hitter in the starting lineup, presuming that J.D. Martinez or another DH option doesn’t join in. He mentioned in an interview that this opportunity feels like the first day of school, meaning it’s a fresh start for him. That’s a good way to think about it, so hopefully that mentality pays off positively. For Baty, he is working on adjustments while at the plate to be a better hitter.

On Mets Hot Stove, he told SNY’s Todd Zeile that the big thing he is working on is his top hand and getting it stronger so he can “get the barrel more out front.” This is another example of a good mentality. If Baty can maintain this new adjustment, chances are he will get more positive results.


This is an area the Mets have been good with for years. It’s a little different this year with the news that Kodai Senga is likely starting the season on the injured list after receiving an injection in his shoulder. However, let’s not allow that to slow down the depth that’s on this team’s pitching staff.

For the starting rotation, there are plenty of veteran pitchers with so many capabilities. Guys like José Quintana, Luis Severino, Adrian Houser, and Sean Manaea all have a bunch of experience as starters. These four pitchers definitely be good to back up Senga as he’ll likely be the No. 1 starter when he returns. It’s also worth noting that Severino and Houser both made their spring training debuts for the Mets and did well.

Other pitchers on the Mets’ pitching staff are in the bullpen. The biggest one is Edwin Díaz, who’s returning as the team’s closer after missing all of last season due to injury. Mets fans are excited about Díaz coming back and it’s going to benefit the team a lot when it comes to finishing games. There is also the return of Adam Ottavino, alongside the additions of Jake Diekman and Shintaro Fujinami. With all these pitchers on the staff being healthy and at the top of their game, it will be tough for hitters to reach base safely and thus help the Mets win more games.

Other Reasons

The Mets have other current and new players who can make an impact on the team’s progress toward winning more games. They still have Pete Alonso, who still hasn’t been given the long-term contract everyone wants him to get. Ji Man Choi is a new player who could provide depth on offense, and he is off to a solid start in spring training so far. Let’s not forget that some Mets fans are thinking that this season might not go well due to what owner Steve Cohen said last year about rebuilding their farm system for 2025. Well, so far some prospects are doing well in spring training so far that might just get called up to the big leagues sometime in 2024, like Luisangel Acuña and Drew Gilbert for example.

If you’re a Mets fan or a general baseball who watches this team, a great way to look at 2024 would be what Tug McGraw said: “Ya Gotta Believe!”

Main Image: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

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