Although it feels like the Celtics were just crowned champions, NBA action has already returned in the form of preseason basketball. Don’t let the football or October baseball distract you; the NBA’s tip-off is just over two weeks away. We have entered the final stretch, and it’s time to cement our predictions. Who will win the NBA MVP? Who will be the best rookie? Who will the NBA award winners be next season?
2024-2025 NBA Award Predictions
MVP: Luka Doncic
Doncic is the favorite to win the MVP award heading into the year, and that’s for good reason. He averaged almost 34 points, ten assists, and nine rebounds last year, and after a heartbreaking end to a great playoff run with the Dallas Mavericks, he should come back hungrier than ever. The offseason additions of Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall should only help increase the spacing and versatility of the Mavericks, as the pieces are in place for Doncic to have yet another amazing year.
However, team success is also a big part of winning the MVP award. Last season, Doncic’s MVP case was hindered by the Maverick’s fifth-seed finish in the Western Conference; they most likely have to finish in the top three for Doncic to have a chance at the award. For this to happen, the Mavericks’ new additions must outweigh the losses of Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green, the roster must stay healthy throughout the year, and Kyrie Irving must put together another drama-free year characterized by stability. If these things do happen, Doncic will fill the other gaps on the roster to make the Mavericks a top seed in the West and win himself his first MVP.
Rookie of the Year: Reed Sheppard
Rookie of the Year is not something I would be betting on this year. The favorite to win the award right now is Zach Edey, at +500, as the sportsbooks don’t have a clue as to which rookies will be good, so they are just betting on Edey’s experience. However, if I had to bet on someone, it would be Reed Sheppard. Sheppard has the second-best odds of winning the award, and the flashes he showed in college and at the NBA Summer League give me optimism that he can be an impactful player from day one. The number three overall pick in the draft was a winning player in his time at Kentucky, and that competitiveness and drive to win will translate to the NBA. He also shot over 52% from three in college and will provide the Rockets’ bench unit with some much-needed court spacing.
The one concern for Sheppard’s ROY case is the overabundance of young and hungry players on the Rockets’ roster. Sheppard may struggle to get significant playing time over guys like Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Fred VanVleet; however, in the NBA, shooters and impactful role players tend to find their way onto the court. If Sheppard can get 20 minutes of action a night, he has a great shot to be the Rookie of the Year in a historically bad draft class.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
There’s not much to say for this one. Wembanyama probably should have won this award last year, but his horrific supporting cast weighed him down and allowed Rudy Gobert to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year. However, Gobert’s run is now over. Barring injury, Wembanyama very well might win the next ten of these awards. His lateral quickness and defensive versatility while standing at 7’4” with almost a 10’ standing reach is nothing short of extraordinary. If Chris Paul can make the San Antonio Spurs a competent team surrounding Wembanyama, the Frenchman is practically a shoo-in for this award. Wembayama averaged 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals per game last year, stats that should only increase as he grows more knowledgeable about the game.
However, Wembanyama’s odds of winning the award are -160, so it is a risky bet with not much of a reward. Guys like Evan Mobley or Jaren Jackson Jr. are great defenders with much higher odds and would be next in line if something happened to the Spurs big man. Nevertheless, Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year is a slam dunk.
Most Improved Player: Jalen Johnson
Trying to predict who will win Most Improved Player is always challenging, as the award recognizes mediocre players who have breakout seasons, often for no apparent reason. However, Johnson’s ascendance last year, combined with the increased opportunity he will see next year, give him as good of a shot as anyone to win the award. Johnson averaged 16 points and almost nine rebounds per game for the Atlanta Hawks last year, and to win the Most Improved Player, he will likely have to break into the 20 and 10 club.
The Dejounte Murray trade is what makes this improvement possible. Murray took almost 19 shots per game last year for the Hawks and wasn’t anything special as a passer. The additions of Dyson Daniels and number one overall pick Zaccharie Risacher will account for some of those missing shots, but Johnson will undoubtedly also see an increase in volume. He took 12.5 field goals and only 2.6 free throws per game last year, both of which should increase. Johnson is one of the bright spots on what has been a disappointing Hawks roster, so he will be fed the ball and given the opportunity to improve. If Johnson does obtain a more aggressive mindset, winning Most Improved Player is definitely on the table.
Sixth Man of the Year: Donte DiVincenzo
DiVincenzo’s inclusion in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade was somewhat shocking, but he will likely see a more prominent role in Minnesota than he would have on the now wing-heavy New York roster. Reports say that DiVincenzo was the missing piece that convinced the Minnesota Timberwolves to trade away Towns, so the sharp-shooter should get plenty of minutes in his new home. DiVincenzo averaged 29 minutes per game as the starting shooting guard for the Knicks last season, putting up 15.5 points on 40% shooting from three, and should see a similar amount of playing time in Minnesota.
DiVincenzo will serve as the primary backup to Anthony Edwards but also should see a lot of time playing next to the young superstar. Edwards’ presence on the court should create many open looks for DiVincenzo, who has shown his ability to knock those shots down his whole career. Last season, DiVincenzo shot 45% on wide-open three-point opportunities and over 46% on three-pointers from the corners. Furthemore, the Villanova product might have some revenge on his mind next season after getting shipped away from all of his friends in New York, so a career year and Sixth Man of the Year award would not be suprising for DiVincenzo.
Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins
League-wide, there is a lot of respect for Taylor Jenkins. He helped develop a young Memphis Grizzlies roster into a competitor in the West and only suffered a setback last season due to Ja Morant’s off-court antics. Think back to just a year and a half ago, when the Grizzlies were the future of the league, led by their young superstar in Morant and their young and forward-thinking coach in Jenkins. Yet, the rest of the league, especially the Thunder, surpassed them, and the public forgot about the Grizzlies’ talent. When on the court, Morant can be one of the top ten players in the world. When not in foul trouble, Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the league. The Grizzlies also have Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, GG Jackson, and the rookie Zach Edey. They can’t be slept on.
The roster should be young and hungry enough to want to prove the doubters wrong and return to the top of the West. If Jenkins can lead the Grizzlies to a top-three seed, then Coach of the Year would be entirely deserved, a year after going 27-55.
October 22nd is rapidly approaching, so clear your calendars for the start of the NBA. Will this year be another one headlined by Nikola Jokic? Can Luka Doncic and the Mavericks build off of their postseason success? Can an American-born player break through and win MVP for the first time since James Harden? It’s time to start preparing for the NBA rollercoaster.
Main Image: © Peter Casey-Imagn Images
