Week twelve NFL DFS is upon us. As the NFL playoff picture becomes clearer, we can target teams that will be supplying a heavy workload to players that are on the playoff bubble or are getting auditions for future roster considerations. However, buyer beware of match-ups. The Detroit Lions have two such players in quarterback Jeff Driskel and running back Bo Scarbrough. Although Driskel’s price is coming up, both are in a nice position against the Washington Redskins and Scarborough is a nice value. However, can we trust them?
Additionally, look for the defensive funnels and attack the porous run and pass defenses. Week twelve NFL DFS has two games with high implied totals and a handful of games with very interesting matchups. I’m digging deep for Week Twelve NFL DFS under the radar plays.
Players and pricing for DraftKings, Sunday main slate.
Week Twelve NFL DFS: Under The Radar Plays
Quarterback: Sam Darnold $5,800
Darnold is at a price point that will have DFS’ers paying up for Russell Wilson/Matt Ryan or paying down for Carson Wentz/Baker Mayfield. However, don’t overlook Darnold. The New York Jets host the Oakland Raiders with an implied total of 45.5. Not terrible, and they are a home underdog. This leads me to believe the Jets will be passing the ball a lot. And, we know the Raiders can be passed on. The Raiders are a bottom ten pass defense and better against the run. The Jets are a top-five rush defense which will lead Derek Carr to push the pace of the game and go to the air more than they want to. The increased pace will lead to more plays. Also, keep in mind that both quarterbacks are prone to making mistakes. So, both defenses are interesting.
Week 11 pick: Kyle Allen, 12.7 fantasy points. Outcome: Bust!
Running Back: Patrick Laird $3,400
Scarbrough looks like the obvious pay down on the main slate. However, Laird and the Miami Dolphins travel to face the Cleveland Browns. There are a few things going for Laird in this game. First of all, Kallen Ballage has been atrocious running for 1.9 yards per carry. Secondly, the Dolphins waived Mark Walton due to unusual circumstances. Lastly, Laird is a pass-catching back. He was targeted and caught six passes against the Buffalo Bills in a loss. This week the ‘Phins are a road underdog and as we know Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to sling the rock. Add to the fact that the Cleveland Browns will be without two of their best defensive players, Larry Ogunjobi and Myles Garrett. Laird has seen 12 and 23 percent of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks. We will see a sharp increase in those snaps this week and he could easily reach value at his salary.
Week 11 pick: Carlos Hyde, 12.5 fantasy points. Outcome: Ok!
Wide Receiver: Allen Hurns $3,300
Nelson Agholor will be the chalk value option this week at a price tag of $4,100. However, he was just listed as questionable on the injury report and if he is out, Jordan Matthews $3,500 becomes the play. However, with that being said, I like Hurns as a pivot from Devante Parker. Parker should draw Denzel Ward‘s coverage and if Hurns, who was targeted six times week eleven, can get five receptions for fifty yards and fall into the endzone? He will hit value without a problem. Hurns’ price is dirt-cheap and allows for a lot of maneuverability in roster construction.
Week 11 pick: Dede Westbrook, 7.2 fantasy points. Outcome: Bust!
Tight End: Jonnu Smith $3,600
Smith has come on strong, for the Tennessee Titans, in the absence of Delanie Walker. Smith has averaged six targets in the past three games and could be counted on to move the chains on third downs. With that being said, monitor Walker’s availability against the Jacksonville Jaguars come Sunday. He’s currently listed as questionable and if he takes the field I will pivot to Vance McDonald $3,500 who’s had seven targets in each of the past three games. Recency bias suggests that DFS players will roster Dallas Goedert for an extra $100, and rightfully so, especially given the scarcity of pass catchers in Philadelphia for week twelve.
Week 11 pick: Irv Smith Jr., 11 fantasy points. Outcome: Boom!
Defense: Cincinnati Bengals $2,100
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North clash. This game has the makings of a low scoring slugfest. Paying up for the Steelers defense, $4000, makes a lot of sense which they could easily pay off that price. However, I will always look to pay down. Especially, considering Mason Rudolph hasn’t been lighting the world on fire. If the Bengals can somehow exhibit an ounce of heart against their rivals it should be interesting. Six points out of the Bengals defense would be enough to hit value.
Week 11 pick: Washington Redskins, 5.0 fantasy points. Outcome: Solid!
Under the Radar
Week twelve NFL DFS roster construction will be interesting. Can we trust a resurgent Atlanta Falcons defense to quiet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing attack? Will the New Orleans Saints slow down Christian McCaffrey? The following plays will allow you to pivot from the chalk and provide value to pay up. This is where we take a stand, pivot and go under the radar. Who do you think is going under the radar?
Good luck and good DFS!
Embed from Getty Images