The Detroit Tigers entered the 2025-2026 offseason in a position most franchises dream of, yet one that brings immense anxiety: they possess the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal, who is quickly approaching free agency.
As the 2026 season approaches, the burning question in the Motor City is no longer just “Will they extend him?” but rather “Will the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?” With Skubal entering his final year of club control and represented by super-agent Scott Boras, the situation has created a high-stakes showdown between the Tigers’ front office and the best pitcher on the planet.
Will Detroit Trade Tarik Skubal?
The Context: A Historic Arbitration Gap
Heading into early 2026, the relationship between Skubal and the Tigers hit a potential snag. The team and the left-hander were unable to reach an agreement, exchanging massive, record-setting arbitration figures. Skubal filed for $32 million, while the Tigers countered at $19 million, creating the largest salary arbitration gap in MLB history.
This massive $13 million discrepancy has fueled fresh trade rumors. While the Tigers operate as a “file-and-trial” club, meaning negotiations usually cease once figures are exchanged, the massive gap shows a stark difference in how the two sides value his 2026 season. If Skubal wins his arbitration case, it complicates Detroit’s financial flexibility, but it doesn’t necessarily dictate an immediate trade.
The Case for Trading Skubal
The logic behind trading a two-time Cy Young winner is simple: asset management. Skubal is slated to become a free agent after 2026. If the Tigers believe they cannot afford or will not reach a long-term extension with him, he is projected to land a contract in excess of $400 million, trading him now maximizes their return.
The Tigers have reportedly set an incredibly high asking price for Skubal, indicating they would only move him for a haul of top prospects and young, controllable major league talent, such as a package rumored to involve elite talent from contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, or Baltimore Orioles.
Trading him now allows an acquiring team to have him for a full season, yielding a higher return than waiting until the July 2026 trade deadline, when his value decreases to a “rental” status.
The Case for Keeping Skubal
Despite the rumors, the Tigers have maintained a position of not viewing any player as untouchable, but they have not shown a desperate willingness to move their ace. The Tigers have seen their team improve dramatically. Following a strong 2025, they believe they can win the AL Central in 2026. Trading Skubal would severely diminish those chances and send the wrong message to the clubhouse and fanbase.
While unlikely, some believe the Tigers might still believe they can lock up Skubal long-term, perhaps by modeling a contract after recent high-AAV, shorter-term deals. The cost for Skubal is “understandably high,” as insider Jon Heyman put it. The chances of a trade in the immediate future are considered “not great” because the asking price is so high that most teams are hesitating.
The Verdict: What Will Happen?
As of late January 2026, all signs suggest the Tigers expect Skubal to be on the mound for Opening Day. While the arbitration dispute is a headache, it is unlikely to force a trade on its own.
However, the situation is fluid. The most likely scenario is that the Tigers will enter 2026 with Skubal and, if they are not in contention by the trade deadline, they will then move him for a substantial return. If they are in the playoff hunt, they will keep him for a postseason push and risk losing him in the off-season, aiming for a World Series ring instead of prospects.
For now, Tigers fans can expect to see the best pitcher in the American League in Detroit for at least the start of the 2026 season, while the front office tries to navigate the impossible challenge of balancing long-term sustainability with the chance to win now.
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