Here we go again. The 2024/25 NBA regular season started on October 23rd and all eyes will be on the defending champions as they make their claim to evolve from a Championship-winning team to a dominant dynasty.
The Boston Celtics were good last season – historically good by some metrics – yet we can look at the Nuggets, Bucks, Warriors, Lakers and Raptors, all of whom failed to repeat after winning the NBA Championship.
Indeed, the Celtics’ victory last season equaled the NBA record for successive seasons (6 seasons: 1975-1980) without a repeat champion. Now, as we know, there is nothing to say that we won’t make it a seventh season in a row with a new champion – that’s basketball – but there are decent signs that this Celtics unit is set up to win two in a row.
Celtics are clear favorites in betting odds
First, we must point out that the Celtics are absolute favorites in the sportsbooks’ 2024/25 outright NBA odds, as they have been all preseason. At odds of around +300, there is clear daylight between them and their rivals, with the likes of The Thunder (+800), 76ers (+900), and Knicks (+1000) almost three times the price.
One of the key metrics that has been pointed out about why the Celtics will triumph whereas recent champions won’t is that they have none of the problems those teams encountered in the subsequent season. The Raptors, for instance, were forced to deal with the departure of Kawhi Leonard after winning it all in 2019. The Lakers and Warriors in 2020 and 2021 were both veteran rosters, and both seemed to play like it the season after their NBA Championship wins. Both the Nuggets and Bucks suffered from health issues and the departures of key players.
The Celtics have none of those problems. The roster is relatively young – indeed, it has the scary potential to get better – and star players are signed up for long-term deals. Heck, the Celtics don’t even have contract issues next season never mind this one.
There is an adage in sports that if you stand still you won’t progress, but that does not apply to a team like the Celtics. They were brilliant last season, and the roster only needed minor surgery going into this. They brought back everyone essential in 2023/24 – 15 players who played over 93% of the minutes (a record for a defending champion) – will return for the 2024/25 season.
A team ethic that can survive injuries to key personnel
Above all, though, there is a true sense that the Celtics are a team, not a group of individuals. They could deal with losing Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum for an extended period, although you’d want them back for the Playoffs. We saw this last season, and the Celtics’ win record never dropped when benching players or having big names out with injuries. That stress on a team, where every player knows their role, is what should see them through any injury crises that inevitably come to all NBA teams.
There is, of course, an argument against the Celtics. We have mentioned some of the contenders they will face this season, and the likes of the Knicks, 76ers, and Thunder have made improvements. Moreover, there was an argument that the Celtics were a lucky team last season. They were not lucky in the sense of their play on the court – they were one of the most efficient and well-drilled teams in recent NBA history. But lucky in terms of their playoff opponents and the overall strength of the league.
Yet, it’s not provable at this point that the teams who struggled to hunt down the Celtics have improved enough to do so this season. The Celtics were way ahead – winning the Eastern Conference by 14 games and never playing more than five in any round of the Playoffs. Anything can happen in an NBA season, but the Celtics are hot favorites with sportsbooks for a reason. It’s their title to lose.
