It has been a shocking start to the 2024-2025 season for the Philadelphia 76ers. After a rough end to the season that saw them knocked out of the first round of the playoff by the New York Knicks, there was a ton of hope and high expectations after the offseason. A lot of fans hung the early postseason exit on the fact that they were the 7th seed in the East because Joel Embiid missed 43 games last year, a majority of them in the second half of the season, and if he had been healthier they would have been in a different position. Once the offseason began, the 76ers decided to make a big splash by signing Paul George to a 4 year, $211 million contract. Add him to the starting lineup with Tyrese Maxey and add in their great draft pickup in Jared McCain and it was looking like a great season was waiting for the 76ers and, hopefully, that NBA Finals championship they have been dying to hoist for the past decade.
Then, the season started.
Embiid did not play his first game until November 12th in a 111-99 loss to the Knicks due to a left knee injury. George did not play his first game until November 4th in a 118-116 loss to the Phoenix Suns due to a left knee injury. Tyrese Maxey, carrying the team on his back, went down for a few weeks with a hamstring issue. Maxey, Embiid, and George have played only ONE game together since the season started. November 20th in a 117-111 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies Embiid scored 35, but Maxey only scored eight and George only scored two.
On top of that, there has been drama non-stop. Embiid stated before the season that he wouldn’t play in any more back-to-back games for the rest of his career which led to an investigation by the NBA. A team meeting where Maxey called out Embiid for being late to everything, a bad look for your superstar face of the franchise by the way, was leaked to the media. While it was said Embiid took Maxey’s criticism, it seems that Embiid was more angry at the meeting being leaked than their pitiful start. He dealt with a left knee injury in the playoffs last year, played in the Olympics, then was not ready to start the season due to the same left knee injury. He also has had a few spats with news reporters, one where he was in the right however, in which he claimed “he has given so much to this city” after they continued to criticize him for his lack of availability. All of that has led the 76ers, a team with title hopes just a month and a half ago, to be 4-14 and be the fourth-worst team in the NBA with the likes of the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and New Orleans Pelicans.
To add some context, the 76ers may not even have a draft pick this coming year. It is a special type of rock bottom to be at if you miss the playoffs, have a horrible record, and don’t even have a draft pick to look forward to in the offseason. Add to the fact that they are only about $6.1 million away from the second apron, and it doesn’t seem like there is any room to do anything if this team doesn’t succeed.
So what is to be done?
Usually, the simplest answer is the best answer. Trade Joel Embiid.
(statistics as of December 3rd)
Time to 86 the 76ers Process
But Why?
It is easy to just “trade this player” or “trade that player”. So let’s add some context from Embiid’s past and present that helps us figure out what the best choice for the future is.
First off, the most obvious issue is Embiid’s injury history. In his career, he has been on the 76ers for 836 games (including his first two seasons where he was out the entire year and this year). He has played in 437 of those career games. This is only 52 percent. On average over his career, he plays in 43 out of 82 games. If we take out that first season where he missed all 82, he still only averages 54 games a season. Since his 2022-2023 MVP season, he has only played 43 out of 97 games. Let’s compare this number to a player who was drafted the next year after him and someone who Embiid is constantly compared to, Nikola Jokic.
Since Jokic was drafted in 2015-2016 he has been on the Denver Nuggets for 757 games. He has played in 690 of those games which comes out to playing in 91% of his games. 91 percent compared to 52 percent. That seems to be the difference between a ring and three MVPS and only one MVP.
Everyone knew that Embiid was injury prone and that is one of his biggest critics, especially when it comes to playoff availability. However, it’s time to start realizing that these injury concerns are much larger than figuring out how to manage them. To get a better idea of how worrisome these injuries are, look at none other than Miami Heat legend Dwyane Wade. At the end of the Heat’s 2012 championship run, Wade had left knee surgery. Wade had been dealing with left knee issues throughout the playoffs and had to have his left knee drained multiple times and had surgery on it after the season which caused him to miss the 2012 Olympics. After that, Wade was not the same player. He was still a great player who won two more Finals championships and went to some All-Star games, but he also had LeBron James and Chris Bosh on those teams. Wade, because of the knee injury, started to lose his quickness and explosiveness which made him so good. His minutes, games played, field goal percentages, points per game, all of it began to drop year by year. Were there outliers? Of course, Wade had to change how he played the game, and was never the same after that.
How does this relate to Embiid? Wade had a left knee injury, and Embiid had a left knee injury. Wade was 30 years old when this happened. Embiid is 30 years old when all of this is happening. Embiid has it worse because he has a history of knee problems. Add in his history of knee issues, the number of surgeries he has had, his age, and how he plays…it wouldn’t be a surprise if a dip in Embiid’s play was to happen within a year or two.
Why Him?
Now, the 76ers have plenty of talent to trade if they are looking to make a trade. However, the front office needs to decide if they are making a trade to improve the team now or improve them for the future. The way it stands right now…they are 4-14, 0-4 when Embiid plays, they are the oldest team in the league at 28.6 years, potentially have 0 draft picks this year, and have no wiggly room when it comes to cap space. People will say “Just wait until all three are healthy and play together. They’ve only had 1 game”. Will they ever be healthy enough to play together? Is the culture around the 76ers going to shift and change all of a sudden? It doesn’t seem likely, so change needs to happen.
Back to the original question, why Embiid? Why not Maxey, Jared McCain, or George? Let’s look at contracts for the next few years for some context as to why Embiid, financially, is the right choice to trade.
Embiid signed a 3-year, $193 million extension this offseason with a player option in 2028-2029 on top of the one he had already signed. Here is the yearly cap hit from Embiid’s contract:
- 2024-2025 – $51.4 million
- 2025-2026 – $55.3 million
- 2026-2027 – $59.5 million
- 2027-2028 – $ 64.3 million
Now, here is George’s:
- 2024-2025 – $49.2 million
- 2025-2026 – $51.6 million
- 2026-2027 – $54.1 million
- 2027-2028 – $56.5 million
Here is Maxey’s:
- 2024-2025 – $35.1 million
- 2025-2026 – $37.9 million
- 2026-2027 – $40.7 million
- 2027-2028 – $43.5 million
- 2028-2029 – $46.3 million
McCain is still on his four-year, $19.4 million rookie contract so that isn’t an issue. Financially, Embiid costs the most.
Now, why is Embiid the right choice when it comes to culture? Let’s do a blind date run of three of the 76ers trade candidates to see who is a good fit, culture-wise, for the team. One player has been a social media icon since his college days and has been called a ray of sunshine because of his constant smile. One player has been called one of the best upcoming players in the league who has taken it upon himself, despite his age, to call out his team to be more focused and prepare better. The last player is known for being unprofessional, getting in media spats, being accused of showing up late, and making questionable choices when it comes to his health. Which one would you rather have? (In case you were wondering: the order was McCain, Maxey, and Embiid).
It is safe to take off McCain and Maxey because they are cheap for a team that is strapped for cash and young for a team that is the oldest in the league. That leaves George and Embiid. Two aging superstars with an injury-prone career. How do you choose between them? Simple. You choose the younger player who has been in the top four voting for Defensive Player of the Year twice, two-time runner-up for MVP, and is a former MVP winner. You will get more bang for your buck for a 30-year-old Embiid than a 34-year-old George.
But For What?
So what do you trade Embiid for? Draft picks and expiring contracts. Currently, the 76ers do not control their 2025 draft pick. They would need to get a lottery pick between 1-6 to keep it from going to Oklahoma City. Trading Embiid is a good, sneaky way to tank (even though you’re already losing without him) in hopes of getting a high pick. Looking for a team with a lot of draft capital and maybe a third or fourth team to add expiring contracts is a way to build for the future through draft picks and free agency. Something, at this current moment in time, the 76ers have the opportunity to do.
A couple of teams that need a center and would pay big for a former MVP to be their guy in hopes of a championship?
- Golden State
- Atlanta
- Indiana
- Clippers
- Lakers
- Miami
- Milwaukee
- Phoenix
- Brooklyn
A lot of those teams have draft capital that could make it worth it. As for expiring contracts, there is no shortage of teams willing to unload players in a deal to free up cap space that the 76ers could take on in preparation for a stout 2026 and 2027 free agency class.
As for the draft, Cooper Flag, Ace Bailey, and Dylan Harper are the top picks. The 76ers, however, don’t need those guys. They need to look at big men to replace Embiid and wings to get younger. The likes of Khaman Maluach, Collin Murray-Boyles, Derik Queen, Asa Newell, Liam McNeeley, and many more would be available at their potential top-six pick and more if they get draft capital.
Will they get that much for Embiid, though? Just take a look at the last two big profile big men to be traded. Karl-Anthony Towns (PF) was traded this last offseason for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop, Charlie Brown, DaQuan Jeffries, Duane Washington Jr. a first-round pick, and 2 second-round picks. Rudy Gobert (C) was traded in 2022 for Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in the 2022 draft, Jared Vanderbilt, four first-round picks, and a pick swap. So it’ll come down to where Joel Embiid compares to Towns and Gobert.
The New Process?
It is never easy moving on from the face of the franchise that has been there for over a decade, but it seems to me the early writings are there that Embiid and the current makeup of this 76ers team isn’t going to work. They are one of the league’s worst teams, they potentially have no draft capital next year unless they lose a lot of games, and don’t have much room for free agency for the next few years. None of that seems to be changing anytime soon and it doesn’t seem like this team’s lack of success will change anytime soon.
Daryl Morey has been known to do what it takes to make his team the best team it can be and a potential contender. It seems like the best option for the team and the future is to build around your young core of McCain and Maxey, let George be the aging star veteran to help the team mature, and get younger and get cheaper. The best way to do that? Say goodbye to The Process and trust in a new one.
Main Image: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
