Two raptors traveling in completely opposite directions meet in Mercedes Benz Stadium this coming Sunday afternoon. The Atlanta Falcons are riding a three-game winning streak, with all of the victories coming against division opponents. The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, are losers of three straight after starting their season 3 – 0. It’s also worth noting that while Atlanta has defeated the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles (considered by many in the preseason to be a playoff contender) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and nearly beat the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle’s wins have been against the Denver Broncos (who at the time were considered a bad team), New England Patriots, and a Tua-less Miami Dolphins squad. This isn’t to suggest that a Falcon win over the Seahawks is a lock. In fact, per DVOA metrics, the two teams are very close to one another (in total DVOA the Falcons rank 10th, the Seahawks 14th. In Offensive DVOA it’s 6th vs 11th. Defensive DVOA it’s 20th vs 18th. Special Teams DVOA it’s 11th vs 15th). Nevertheless, the Dirty Birds should feel pretty good about their chances.
Falcons vs Seahawks Week 7
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When Atlanta Has the Ball
Over the last two weeks, the Falcons have shown the ability to beat teams either through the air or on the ground. In the overtime victory against the Buccaneers Kirk Cousins went off, throwing for a team-record 509 yards and adding four TD passes. Last Sunday against Carolina Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 200 yards at a 6.1 yards per carry clip and three scores. The offensive line still looks like a better group of run blockers than pass protectors, but last week against Carolina they graded out at a 90.0 in pass protection per PFF, sixth best in the league. Chris Lindstrom appears to be coming out of his early season slump protecting QBs. Ryan Neuzil, Drew Dalman‘s replacement, was the second-best center in the league in Week 6, per PFF.
Seattle’s defense is vulnerable to the run, ranking in the bottom third of the league in yards per game, yards per carry, and 20+ yard runs allowed. They started the season much better against the pass, though overall they’re more middle-of-the-road than elite. Over their three most recent contests, however, they’ve allowed opposing QBs to throw eight TDs against zero picks, complete 74.1 percent of their passes, and put up a 138.5 rating. They are a top-10 unit in getting sacks, hurry percentage, pressure percentage, and quarterback knockdowns, despite blitzing at an average rate compared to the rest of the league.. The most important stat, of course, is points allowed, and the Seahawks are the eighth-worst team in the league in that regard. During this three-game losing skid, they’ve been giving up 35.7 points per game (as well as 430.7 total yards per game). Seattle should be getting rookie first-rounder DT Byron Murphy back from an injury for this game, and they did just acquire DT Ray Robertson-Harris from the Jaguars in a trade, so perhaps they’ll stiffen up a little bit defensively this week.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
It’s been all about the passing attack for Seattle so far this season. Geno Smith has been racking up the yardage, leading the league with 1,778 yards, and is completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. He has a deadly trio of weapons at wide receiver in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. He is, however, throwing an average of an interception per game, and is the third most sacked QB in the league. On the flip side, Atlanta’s defense is the worst in the league at rushing the passer and in opposing quarterback completion percentage allowed. Despite possessing two former second-round picks at running back in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnett, the Seahawks have rushed for the sixth-fewest yards in the league, and only the Los Angeles Rams have fewer rushing attempts. They are averaging 4.6 yards per carry, however, and only the Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints have more rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons’ defense has been a veritable sieve against the run, allowing the eighth-most yards at a 4.4-yard clip. Only the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals have allowed more rushing first downs, and the percentage of rushing first downs Atlanta has allowed is the eighth-worst in the NFL. As referenced above, the Falcons are terrible so far this year at getting after the quarterback. They have only five sacks, they’re 28th in pressure percentage, dead last in sacks per pressure rate, and 27th in pass rush win rate – all that despite blitzing at a rate above the league average. Fortunately for Atlanta, despite the alarming completion percentage allowed, the pass defense is allowing only 6.3 yards per completion (tied for 3rd-best in the league with the Minnesota Vikings), focusing on – and largely being successful at – limiting big plays.
Inside the Blue Tent
Seattle has listed starting cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Tre Brown as out for this game. Corner Artie Burns was placed on the IR. Safety Jerrick Reed II is also out. Third-string right tackle Stone Forsythe, who’s been starting due to previous injuries to Abraham Lucas and George Fant, is also out, meaning rookie sixth-round pick from Division II school Findlay, Michael Jerrell, will be starting (if there was ever a day for Matt Judon to go off, this would be the day). Running back Walker III popped up as questionable on the injury report Saturday.
For the Falcons, LB Troy Andersen and EDGE Lorenzo Carter are out. S Micah Abernathy was placed on the IR. S Justin Simmons and DB Antonio Hamilton are questionable.
Main Image: oe Nicholson-Imagn Images
