Three weeks are in the books in the 2021 NFL season and there’s plenty of money to be made. NFL Week 4 has a number of great matchups on tap, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of the last two number one overall picks (Cincinnati is favored by 7.5, but couldn’t cover).
The NFL point spread is a great indicator of how bettors think each game will go. It’s said that the home team gets three points, so to take the JAX/CIN line, the Bengals would be favored by 4.5 points on a neutral field, give or take. Below, we will take a look at one matchup where the underdog will cover and one where the favorite will cover
The Two NFL Week 4 Games You Have To Bet
Panthers (+4.5) vs Cowboys
We all knew the Cowboys would be a solid team with the return of Dak Prescott. Through three games, he’s thrown for 876 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. The tandem of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper has proven to be too much for defenses. That offensive line is not what it once was. They’ve given up seven sacks to date, Prescott has only been pressured on 18% of his dropbacks.
Where the Panthers thrive is on defense. They possess the number one pass defense, number one rush defense, and have forced the most sacks with 17. Haason Reddick (4.5) and Brian Burns (3.0) lead the way on a defense that is a massive reason Matt Rhule’s squad has surprised with a 3-0 start.
The Panthers will be without one of the best running backs and offensive weapons in the game, as they just put Christian McCaffrey on IR, so how in the world can they cover a 4.5 point spread on the road? While the Cowboys’ defense has done a fine job of stifling the run (allowing only 70 yards per game), they have allowed the second-most yards through the air. Trevon Diggs is a stud corner, but he can’t cover all three of DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Robby Anderson.
Turning Dallas into a one-dimensional team will be the key to victory. The Cowboys are certainly good enough to win this game, but Carolina covers the 4.5-point spread on the road. If it weren’t for a blatantly missed offensive pass interference in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, this would be a marquee 3-0 vs 3-0 matchup.
Ravens vs Broncos (-1)
Even though past matchups have nothing to do with this year, the Ravens are 1-2 since that exciting double-overtime win in the 2013 NFL playoffs. Denver has surprised the league by jumping out to a perfect 3-0 mark. Teddy Bridgewater may not be taking the league by storm with his 827 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s taking care of the ball, considering he’s yet to turn it over. Both Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams are getting it done on the ground, combining for 331 yards and three touchdowns.
They will be without young wide-out KJ Hamler for the remainder of the season because of another torn ACL, unfortunately. Baltimore’s opportunistic defense will look to hone in on tight end Noah Fant and receiver Courtland Sutton. To this point, the Ravens’ defense is third-worst in the league defending the pass. They allowed Derek Carr to eat to the tune of 435 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1.
Lamar Jackson is still elite. “He can’t throw” is what everyone hears, but he leads the league in yards per completion (14.4) and yards per attempt (12.3). Not to mention he leads the way with 7.2 yards per carry on the ground.
The Broncos are barely favored in this game. The question still looms whether or not they are the real deal. A win over Baltimore to get to 4-0 would begin to silence those doubters. As with the Panthers, the Broncos’ defense will be key. Von Miller tied for second in NFL with 18 quarterback pressures. The Ravens’ offensive line has allowed eight sacks and on 12 instances, Jackson has had to abandon the pocket. Denver will likely get the chance to increase its mark of five turnovers forced. Lamar Jackson has already fumbled four times this year to go with his trio of interceptions.
Denver gets the win at Mile-High. However, don’t count out Justin Tucker lobbying to try and break his week-old record for longest field goal in the thin air.
Other notable picks
Chiefs vs Eagles OVER 54.5
Colts (+2.0) vs Dolphins
Lions vs Bears UNDER 42.0
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