For the first time since the Atlanta Falcons were defending their NFC Champion title in 2017, there is excitement in Atlanta about pro football. A brand new coaching staff after three years of mediocrity (to be kind), a $180 million contract being given to an upper-echelon quarterback, and, most recently, the addition of two Pro Bowl-level defenders will do that. But how good can the Falcons really be this year? And if it all goes wrong somehow, how bad could they be?
The Falcons’ Ceiling and Floor for 2024
The Ceiling
Coaching
Raheem Morris, after two previous stints of less-than-inspiring head coaching, proves he is indeed ready for prime time. Zac Robinson and Jimmy Lake, who have never called plays at the NFL level, step seamlessly into their new roles of offensive and defensive coordinators and scheme their players to success.
Offense
Kirk Cousins is completely healthy and ignores father time for another year which meshes perfectly with Robinson’s Sean McVay-style system. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts (who is also fully healthy) are unleashed with this new scheme and with Cousins under center. The offensive line adapts well to doing more pass protecting than run blocking than they ever did under Arthur Smith, keeping Cousins clean and giving London, Pitts & company time to get open.
Defense
The change from Ryan Nielsen to Jimmy Lake at defensive coordinator is seamless. The return of Grady Jarrett from injury and the addition of Matthew Judon bolster the front seven’s pass rush. Rookies Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus provide quality depth. Zach Harrison and Arnold Ebiketie develop into key contributors. In the secondary, adding Justin Simmons to Jessie Bates at safety masks the uncertainty of Mike Hughes being the starting corner across from AJ Terrell. Overall, the pass rush improves, they get stingier against the run, and while they’re not the ’85 Bears, they’re in the top half of the league in all significant defensive metrics (points allowed, yards allowed, etc…)
Overall
The Falcons win 12 games, sweep their division opponents, win the NFC South, and make the playoffs as the number three seed in the NFC. They win at home in the wild-card round but then fall on the road against the Lions in the divisional round.
The Floor
Coaching
Morris proves to be the same guy he was in his first run with Atlanta and his time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Robinson and Lake find out that being a pro-QB coach and a college head coach / defensive coordinator aren’t the same as being NFL playcallers.
Offense
Cousins and Pitts still haven’t quite shaken their injuries. Cousins feels his age. The offensive line is exposed for being better run blockers than pass protectors. As a result, the blue-chip young talent at the skill positions produce but underachieve.
Defense
The pass rush improves with the return of Jarrett and the addition of Judon, but the rookies disappoint and don’t provide the expected depth. Harrison and Ebiketie stagnate instead of developing. The team is still soft against the run. Hughes is exploited as a weak spot by opposing QBs. Bates and Simmons eliminate big plays in the passing game, but the team still gets nickel-and-dimed to death. Overall the defense isn’t horrible, but it’s not good enough to compensate for the shortcomings on offense.
Overall
The Falcons are decidedly middle-of-the-road. They win eight or nine games, splitting their contests against the Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and even the Carolina Panthers. They finish second in the NFC South behind the Bucs and miss the playoffs.
Main Image: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
