If the unranked Duke Blue Devils defeat the ranked Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Championship, it would trigger a historic and controversial college football scenario: the ACC, a Power 4 league, would likely be left out of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff entirely.
This outcome stems from the specific rules of the 12-team CFP, which grant automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions. An 8-5 Duke team would likely not be ranked highly enough by the CFP selection committee to secure one of those five coveted spots, opening the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to make the playoff instead.
The ACC’s Potential Nightmare
The CFP Automatic Bid Dilemma
The primary reason a Duke victory would cause such chaos is the change in the CFP format. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a berth. If Virginia (a ranked, 10-2 team) wins, they would easily represent the ACC in the playoff. However, an 8-5 Duke team, with notable non-conference losses to Tulane and UConn, presents a weak resume by comparison to other conference champions.
In this scenario where Duke wins, champions from the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 would secure three of the automatic bids. The champion of the American Athletic Conference (Tulane or North Texas) would likely be ranked high enough to secure a fourth bid. The final spot would come down to a comparison between Duke and another strong Group of 5 champion, such as James Madison (JMU)Â from the Sun Belt, who would likely be 12-1.
Most projections indicate that the one-loss James Madison would be ranked higher than the five-loss Duke team, thus earning the final automatic bid and likely excluding the entire ACC from the national title picture.
Bowl Game Scenarios
A Duke win would not only create immediate CFP drama but also have significant long-term repercussions for the ACC. If Duke wins the ACC title but misses the CFP, they would likely receive a bid to an upper-tier, non-playoff associated bowl game, such as the Pop-Tarts Bowl or the Sun Bowl, as the conference champion. The ACC would then place its other top teams, like Miami and Virginia, in the remaining selection of bowl games, such as the Gator Bowl or the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Conference Realignment and Future
The potential exclusion from the CFP would be a major embarrassment for the ACC, especially given ongoing discussions about conference stability and revenue disparities. There would be significant pressure on the ACC to revise its tiebreaker rules. Critics argue the current system, which resulted in a five-loss unranked team reaching the title game over the higher-ranked Miami, is flawed and should prioritize CFP rankings like the American Conference does.
The scenario would fuel further speculation about the long-term viability and stability of the ACC, potentially accelerating talks of member institutions (like Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, and North Carolina) exploring options with other conferences like the Big Ten or SEC due to financial and competitive concerns.
A Duke Upset is a Real Possibility
The Blue Devils are more than capable of pulling off the upset, as they are only four point underdogs as of Thursday. They have a great passing game led by Darian Mensah, who has thrown for 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions. When Mensah and talented wide receiver Cooper Barkate are at their best, they have an offense capable of hanging around with anyone in the country.
A Duke victory in the ACC Championship would be a remarkable on-field achievement for the Blue Devils, but it would simultaneously plunge the ACC into a major institutional crisis and likely result in its historic absence from the college football postseason’s biggest stage.
Main Image: Â Jeremy Brevard-Imagn Images
