Pain. This is the second straight week of going 2-3 on picks for Steakspeare’s Spreads. Week one came down to TWO goal-line fumbles by the Broncos. Week two fails on a backdoor cover by a clearly injured Justin Herbert throwing a meaningless touchdown on fourth and goal. The AFC West is killing me. The world seems to be out to get ya boy… BUT I’M NOT GIVING UP YET! We have five more lines, which is five more opportunities for winners. We aren’t far off from winning weeks. We WILL catch a break and we WILL start cashing checks! Four road favorites make up the majority of picks this week. Week 3 of Steakspeare’s Spreads starts now…
Steakspeare’s Spreads Week 3 (4-6 all-time)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ New England Patriots
Perhaps this is a trap game. The New England Patriots are a home underdog, which hasn’t happened often under Bill Belichick, but you can’t deny the ability of the Baltimore Ravens. After losing a wild game against the feisty Dolphins, look for the team to get back to its winning ways against what could almost be considered a rivalry. The Patriots haven’t looked like the New England teams of old and the Ravens and a contract-year Lamar Jackson are putting up points in droves.
New England seems to let even the lower-tier teams of the NFL stick around longer than they should. Look for them to continue this trend and for Baltimore to handily cover. Three points aren’t enough to show what Baltimore will do to this team. Look for this line to be bet up to the five range by Sunday.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ Miami Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills are far and away the best team in the NFL through two weeks. This week will be more of a test for Miami than it will be for them. The Miami Dolphins are not a joke team however they’ll now be facing the best defense they’ve seen so far on top of arguably the best offense in the NFL. Josh Allen is also the NFL’s best quarterback facing another quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa that we haven’t yet decided collectively whether he’s “the guy”.
No matter what side of the coin you’re on, you have to be leaning toward Buffalo, so now let’s analyze the 5.5 points. Buffalo hasn’t had a game yet where they won by less than 21 points. So let’s say Miami plays them the best and cuts off two touchdowns from the average winning margin. That’s still seven points. I’m riding Buffalo in this week’s Steakspeare’s Spreads and until the wheels fall off, no spread seems too high for this team. If you’re a true gambler, you may wait because this line may dip before kickoff and you COULD get a better spread for Buffalo (less than 5.5).
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
This is more of an indictment on the Indianapolis Colts. If you have trouble with the Jags and Texans, there’s no way you’re beating September Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City is 11-2 in the month of September with Patrick Mahomes and the average win margin of those 11 is 11.6 points. 6.5 seems like a lot until you see some of the scores KC has had in games including last week (had it not been for a darn backdoor cover it would have been 10 points… still bitter).
The Colts still don’t know when their best defender Shaquille Leonard will be back, their only credible receiver Michael Pittman’s health is a question, and Matt Ryan seems to be an aging quarterback trying to find past glory. Kansas City seems to have not missed a beat even without speedster Tyreek Hill who is now a Dolphin. Mahomes stated in his presser:
“So, I’m sorry to all you fantasy football guys, but it’s going to come from everywhere so you’re going to have to kind of choose the right guy every week.”
Fantasy skepticism aside, he means they can beat you with a myriad of players and schemes. KC wins convincingly here and covers.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ New York Jets
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t looked good, especially after the poor performance in this article from last week (an incorrectly predicted -7.5 point cover), so many may ask, why pick them again? The New York Jets are bad and the Bengals aren’t Cleveland. There will be some people incorrectly choosing the Jets here, as they somehow captured a win in the crazy end-of-game scenario against the Browns.
Pair this with a Bengals team that has been embarrassed in consecutive weeks, one being a national TV game against the Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush, and you have an opportunity for a reset game. The Jets are going to be overconfident and the Bengals will be motivated. There will be only one “Broadway Joe” in New York this week and it won’t be Namath! The Bengals right the ship and cover handily against a team that could still be starting a backup quarterback. The weapons at the Bengals disposal vs the unproven defense of the Jets should secure this game early.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Green Bay Packers
This is the last game for Steakspeare’s Spreads in Week 3. Take the teams out of this one and look at this number. Tom Brady -2.5 at home? That’s almost insulting to the GOAT. Now keep in mind that receiver Chris Godwin is hurt and receiver Mike Evans is now suspended, but the Green Bay Packers don’t really have anyone that makes us go “wow” anymore since losing Davante. It will be a true battle between two of the best quarterbacks of the last 12 years with minimal weapons for each man.
Brady as a less than three-point home favorite is the reason for the bet. He’s looking to rebound after another headline-filled week at the weird end of his football career. Aaron Rodgers, who may be the ONLY QUARTERBACK to have more puzzling headlines, just doesn’t trust these young receivers enough to potentially hurt the completion stats so I’m going Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover and win in what could be an entertaining game.
We are only two games back from .500 in Steakspeare’s Spreads so this week is crucial to keep pace. It feels like a winner, what do you think? Follow me on Twitter @Steakspeare and follow @LWOS for all your sports news, polls, and takes.
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