Coaching turnover is abundant in college football. This past offseason, 29 of 134 FBS teams hired a new head coach. That is 22 percent, meaning more than one in five programs no longer have their coach from a season ago. Some retired. Some went to bigger programs. One took a coordinator job at a school in the same conference. One went to the NFL. However, some were also fired by their schools. The leash is short for coaches that do not meet expectations. We will review six Power 4 coaches who, barring a turnaround, are in danger of that fate.
Six Power 4 Coaches on the Hot Seat
Dave Aranda – Baylor
Aranda was hired by Baylor in 2020. The Bears went 2-7 that year in a season shortened by the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, Aranda led a tremendous turnaround that saw Baylor go 12-2 en route to a Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl win. However, in 2022 the program went 6-7 followed by 3-9 in 2023. Aranda approached athletic director Mack Rhoades before his team’s season finale, a 34-31 loss to West Virginia. He fought for his job and laid out his plans to right the ship. The school is betting on Aranda to rediscover his 2021 magic. If he has a repeat of last season, Baylor will be looking for a new coach
Mario Cristobal – Miami
The date is October 7, 2023. Miami is ranked 17th in the country at 4-0. The Hurricanes are leading conference foe Georgia Tech 20-17 with 34 seconds left and the Yellowjackets have no timeouts left. On third down, Cristobal’s team could (and should) have taken a knee, ran out the clock, improved to 5-0, and continued their climb up the rankings. Instead, they handed the ball to their running back. He fumbled. Georgia Tech recovered. Then Miami’s defense allowed the Yellowjackets to go 76 yards in four plays and complete an improbable and avoidable comeback.
A 3-6 finish followed that 4-0 start. Miami was out of playoff contention by week six. Cristobal is 12-13 through two seasons in Miami, and a lackluster 6-10 in conference play. Even with the blunders and sub .500 record, Cristobal continues to be an effective recruiter. The program is on pace for three top-10 recruiting classes, based on 247Sports’ rankings. Nationally, they ranked seventh in 2023, fourth in 2024, and currently sit at 10th in the current 2025 cycle with time still to build. The 2023 and 2024 classes were tops in the ACC, and the 2025 class is currently the highest-rated in the conference. Cristobal has shown the capability to acquire talent, but he has to turn that talent into on-field wins. He also has to be smarter to prevent avoidable losses. Miami expects to be a postseason contender, and with the expanded playoff that goal is easier to accomplish. Missing that goal will test the patience of fans and boosters alike.
Clark Lea – Vanderbilt
The Commodores are 9-27 since 2021, Lea’s first year coaching his alma mater. He started 2-10 (0-8 SEC), then showed improvement with a 5-7 (2-6) 2022 season. Then last year it went back to 2-10 (0-8). The program has finished last in the conference in recruiting the previous three classes and is currently last in the 2025 cycle. Admittedly, Vanderbilt is a difficult job for a coach. The academic standards are high and they have to compete for in-state talent against Tennessee, a program with richer tradition and more accomplishments. With that being said, the last three coaches to lead the program for more than one season all at least made a bowl game. Regularly producing two-win seasons at any job will not stand for long.
Billy Napier – Florida
Napier is entering his third season as coach of the Gators, and the task in front of him is monumental. Last season ended on a five-game losing streak. He had multiple starting and contributing players transfer out. He had eight blue-chip prospects de-commit from the recruiting class. This season, he faces what many consider to be the toughest schedule in college football, with 11 of Florida’s 12 games against power four programs. The non-conference slate includes instate foes Miami, UCF, and Florida State.
In SEC play they have games against Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss. Seven of those teams have a realistic shot at making the twelve-team playoff. And what is Napier’s best shot at keeping his job? It might be a freshman quarterback. If five-star quarterback DJ Lagway impresses this year that could help save Napier’s job, but that is a lot to hope for from a freshman. The uncertainty around Napier is also showing in recruiting, as the Gators rank 40th nationally and 15th out of 16th in the SEC for the 2025 cycle. Napier needs to turn the program back in the right direction, or a new coach will likely be found to pick up the pieces.
Sam Pittman – Arkansas
Arguably the hottest seat in the country belongs to Pittman. Entering his fifth season with the Razorbacks, Pittman had a strong 2021 season that saw the team go 9-4 and win the Outback Bowl over Penn State. Since then, there has been a slow decline. The team went 7-6 in 2022. Last season, the Razorbacks started 2-0 then endured a six-game losing streak en route to a 4-8 finish. Pittman has made multiple changes in an attempt to improve the team, including hiring former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. The offensive line, wide receivers, and running backs will all have new position coaches this season.
As is a common theme, the lack of stability hurts the ability to acquire talent. Arkansas was 15th out of 16 SEC teams in the 2024 recruiting rankings, and the program is currently 11th out of 16 in the 2025 cycle. Pittman made a bold choice to implement all of these changes before the season; the bolder choice may have been hiring his potential replacement.
Kalani Sitake – BYU
Sitake is the most tenured coach on this list, entering his ninth season leading the Cougars. In his previous eight seasons, he is 61-41 and 4-2 in bowl games. So how did he make this list? The team started 5-2 last year but then ended the season on a five-game losing streak. Last season was BYU’s first in the Big 12. Growing pains are expected when teams elevate to a more difficult conference but there are concerns about the program’s ability to compete. In the 2023 recruiting cycle, BYU’s class ranked 12th out of 14 teams in the conference. Last cycle they ranked fifth out of 16. For the 2025 cycle, they are 15th out of 16. There is more than meets the eye though. The classes rank a combination of the number of players accumulated and the quality of those players, and BYU has been last in average player rating through all two-plus cycles of their time in the Big 12. This means they are not getting the same level of recruits as the other teams in their conference. They may be a little deeper in some spots, but there is concern they may lack the top-end talent needed to compete in the Big 12. If the team performs poorly in the conference again, the school may feel the need to start a new coach’s tenure
The Irrational Hot Seat
There are also two coaches worth mentioning that logically should not be on the hot seat, but college football is hardly ever logical. The first is Kalen DeBoer who is entering his first year at Alabama and replacing legendary Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban, who retired last January. The expectations at Alabama are far from reasonable. That is what happens when a program wins six national championships in 17 seasons. Winning one is hard enough and most coaches will never achieve that, but the fans in Tuscaloosa expect results. I do not think DeBoer is at risk of losing his job after one year, but it would not be the craziest thing to happen in this sport.
The second is Ohio State head coach Ryan Day. Day is entering his sixth season as head coach of the Buckeyes and has an impressive 56-8 career record. I could make an argument that five of those eight losses are forgivable to most Buckeye fans. The other three are at the hands of archrival Michigan. Day beat Michigan in 2019. Covid forced “The Game” to be canceled in 2020. Since then, Michigan has beaten Ohio State three straight seasons, costing them a shot at the Big Ten Championship all three years and eliminating them from playoff contention in 2021 and 2023. The Buckeyes enter 2024 with a plethora of talent on their roster. The mix of returning production and highly rated transfers has created astronomical expectations. If the Buckeyes fall short against Michigan again this year, Day’s job security may come into question. The expanded playoff and divisionless format mean that loss may not eliminate them from conference and national championship contention, but if the Buckeyes finish this season with another loss to the Wolverines and an empty trophy case then Day could be a part of next season’s turnover.
Main Image: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
