It took three months, but a major offseason storyline finally turned the corner. Aaron Rodgers, commonly viewed as one of the most talented throwers in NFL history, cemented his decision to join the quarterback-needy Pittsburgh Steelers on June 7, connecting the ultra-polarizing Rodgers with legendary Head Coach Mike Tomlin, whom he defeated back in Super Bowl XLV in 2011. While the pairing is certainly intriguing on paper, the Steelers are far from their glory days, though the roster is certainly talented. However, with hype growing, what can we expect from Rodgers, Tomlin, and the 2o25 Steelers?
Expectations From Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers
How will offensive coordinator Arthur Smith mesh with Aaron Rodgers?
One of the biggest factors in a successful partnership between Rodgers and the Steelers lies in the hands of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his ability to tailor the offense to the quarterback. In his first season calling plays for the black and gold, he ran a zone-centric running scheme with an emphasis on heavy-personnel formations and play action, something Rodgers has thrived at throughout different periods in his career.
For Smith’s play-action offense to be effective, opposing teams need to believe in his dedication to running the ball — something that forces defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage, giving his receivers better matchups. With the addition of workhorse power back Kaleb Johnson, who figures to step in next to Jaylen Warren, the Steelers should have an extra boost in their backfield, compared to last season with Najee Harris.
Ultimately, offensive success will come down to their offensive line play, a position group that has plagued the Steelers for multiple seasons. The unit gave up 49 sacks last year, no thanks to former left tackle Dan Moore Jr., who swindled the Tennessee Titans to sign him to a massive deal.
Other than Moore Jr., injuries forced the Steelers to play without rookie first-round tackle Troy Fautanu and veteran center Nate Herbig, leading to poor cohesion among the unit. Still, they were able to run-block well enough, with backs averaging 4.1 yards a carry last year, which should be consistent in 2025, given the group’s improved health. Fans should expect the offense to be one of the most run-based in the league, similar to last year and for Rodgers to average about 30 passes a game, preventing him from taking too many hits but giving him a chance to connect on more medium to deep play-action passes.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Weapons Analysis
While the group of skill players isn’t anything to write home about, especially after trading star receiver George Pickens, the remaining weapons within this offensive scheme are enough to give Rodgers a chance to win most games. D.K. Metcalf is a bona fide receiver one, and while there aren’t other flashy pass catchers on the team, Calvin Austin III showed the ability to be one of the league’s better slot receivers and 2nd-year player Roman Wilson will finally be able to contribute.
Pittsburgh also has one of the better tight end duos in the league, with red-zone threat Pat Freiermuth still in the picture as well as emerging receiving threat Darnell Washington. Given the run-heavy offense, Rodgers has enough weapons to make do, but don’t expect him to have many 300+ yard passing games. Warren and rookie running back Johnson should combine for around 30-32 rushes per game, taking the load off Rodgers as much as possible.
Conclusion and Aaron Rodgers’ Final Statistical Predictions
In short, this offense is extremely well-suited for an aging quarterback such as Rodgers, as it doesn’t lean on the quarterback to consistently make seven-to-eight-play touchdown drives. Instead, it’ll be a unit that methodically works its way down the field, with a strong, physical run game complemented by well-timed play-action calls featuring tight-window throws that Rodgers is still capable of, even heading into his 20th season. While this type of offense won’t outright win many games, it won’t lose many either.
With Rodgers’ infamously being protective of his touchdown-to-interception ratio, which took a hit last year, he’ll be looking to keep the ball out of harm’s way and be as efficient as possible. Assuming the defense continues to play at a high level, the Steelers should make the playoffs as a 6-7 seed, with Rodgers throwing for around 3,945 yards, 27 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on a 64.5 completion percentage.
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