The No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners are in do-or-die territory this weekend as they try to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive with an upset win down in Tuscaloosa over the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide. The Sooners opened as +7 underdogs going into this weekend and will have their work cut out for them going up against Heisman hopeful Ty Simpson, quarterback of the Crimson Tide.
This is a spot where Alabama head coach Kalen Deboer usually thrives, with a 19-3 record against AP-ranked opponents, showing that it’s the big games that Deboer-led teams really rise to the occasion since he took over for Crimson Tide legend Nick Saban. Not only does this Alabama group seem to thrive in big moments, but this is a revenge game for a lot of this roster after the Sooners crushed Alabama’s Playoff hopes last season with a 24-3 victory in Norman.
Sooners coach Brent Venables is looking to move to 2-0 against the Crimson Tide in his head coaching career, and to do so, he will have to have a few facets of this game break his way. Here are three keys to Oklahoma securing the upset.
Oklahoma’s Path to Victory Against the Crimson Tide
1. Win the Turnover Battle
Maybe the most impressive stat one can find this year in College Football is Simpson’s touchdown-to-turnover ratio: he currently has 21 touchdown passes and only one interception on the year. That can’t keep up if the Sooners are to be able to stay in this game. The game has to look like how it did against Tennessee two weeks ago, forcing turnovers to stifle any momentum that the Crimson Tide has.
The Sooners’ defense is widely regarded as one of the best units in the country, but the turnovers haven’t come easily for them this year. They’re ranked 113th in the country in turnover margin this season, while Alabama is ranked fourth in the country. If Oklahoma’s secondary can withstand the balanced attack of the Alabama wide receivers, the Sooners should be right there with the Tide in crunch time with a chance to win the game.
2. John Mateer’s Legs
In Oklahoma’s two best wins this season, against Michigan and against Tennessee, a large recipe for victory for the Sooners has been quarterback John Mateer’s ability to create yardage with his legs, both in scramble and design QB run situations.
In week two’s win over Michigan, Mateer ran for 74 yards and two touchdowns, and then against Tennessee in week 9, ran for 80 yards and one touchdown. Against Alabama, a game where the Tide will inevitably find explosive plays on offense, the QB run game for the Sooners is must have so they can keep Simpson and their explosive pass offense off the field. It can also keep Alabama’s defense honest and create openings for big pass plays for the Sooners, finding their top receivers like Isiah Satengia, Deion Burks, and even tight end Jaran Kanek.
Alabama’s run defense hasn’t been anything special this season, ranking 55th in the country. With both Mateer and running back Xavier Robinson running well lately, the plus-one run game will be a prominent part of the Sooners’ game plan.
3. Get Home On Ty Simpson
 If Oklahoma’s going to limit this Alabama offense, it starts with the pass rush bringing pressure early and often to Simpson. Alabama is a one-dimensional offense, elite in the passing game but below average in the run game. The Crimson Tide ranks 119th in rushing offense this season, and while they’ve been able to get away with it thus far this season, if there’s any defensive unit that can punish them for it, it’s this Oklahoma defensive line.
One aspect of this defensive line to pay attention to going into the game is the health of the Sooners’ star edge rusher, R Mason Thomas. He hurt his hamstring during a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown against Tennessee, and as of Thursday is ruled as questionable. Without him, the Sooners still have studs across the defensive line, guys like David Stone, Grayson Halton, and Jayden Jackson. If Thomas does end up playing, he can be a game wrecker and can cause all sorts of havoc to the backfield of Alabama.
Going against an Alabama offense that has been one-dimensional, part of getting home on Simpson will be to limit him as a rusher, similar to how the Sooners limited Joey Aguilar. Simpson isn’t the caliber of rusher as a Trinidad Chambliss or LaNorris Sellers, but he’s also not a cone out there in the backfield, so the Sooners will still have to keep him in check with his legs, along with his elite pass ability. If the Sooners make Simpson uncomfortable, they can win this game, and even win it convincingly.
The Sooners have a prime opportunity in front of them. Beating Alabama puts them in an amazing position to capture a CFP bid, with the last two games on their schedule being Missouri and LSU, both of whom have had underwhelming seasons to say the least.
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