The Oklahoma City Thunder’s magical season continues after winning a grueling seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets.
Despite making a major trade right before the start of the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. The Wolves are coming off a gentleman sweep over the Golden State Warriors.
The rest vs. rust factor is in reverse for the Thunder this time around—they have a quick turnaround with only one day, while the Wolves will have had five days of rest before the start of the Conference Finals.
The Wolves are the hottest team in the West—winning 25 of their last 31 games and are looking to reach the Finals for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, the Thunder have been vying for their first finals berth since 2012.
Here is my preview, things to watch for, keys, and series predictions for this Western Conference Finals matchup between the Thunder and the Timberwolves.
Thunder-Timberwolves Western Conference Finals Preview
Season Series
Oklahoma City and Minnesota split the season series 2-2, though they never met with both teams at full strength.
- Game 1: December 31: vs Minnesota (Won 113-105)
- Game 2: February 13: @ Minnesota (Lost 101-116)
- Game 3: February 23: @ Minnesota (Won 130-123)
- Game 4: February 24: vs Minnesota (Lost 128-131)
This Thunder vs. Timberwolves series will provide a refreshing look for NBA fans, with two of the best young stars in the league facing off head-to-head.
Playoff History
This will be the first time Oklahoma City will face Minnesota in the playoffs.
The only playoff series associated with the two franchises was in 1998, when the franchise was in Seattle, and the Supersonics won 3-2.
Series Schedule (Central Time)
Game 1: Tuesday @ Oklahoma City (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 2: Thursday @ Oklahoma City (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 3: Saturday @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Game 4: Mon., May 26 @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 5: Wed., May 28 @ Oklahoma City (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 6: Fri., May 30 @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 7: Sun., June 1 @ Oklahoma City (7 p.m., ESPN)
*If necessary
Top Storyline
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Anthony Edwards
All eyes will be on the two young stars: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the likely MVP, and Anthony Edwards, the most charismatic personality in the league, who has an NBA Finals appearance on the line.
In four games against the Timberwolves, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game while attempting 12 free throws per game. The Timberwolves’ defense will be the top priority in finding ways to make things difficult and slow down the likely MVP.
In four games against the Thunder, Edwards’s averages dropped. He scored 22.2 points and 6 assists (3.5 turnovers) per game on 36% shooting from the floor and 31 percent from three. Oklahoma City has the perimeter defenders to throw at him and can pack the paint with rim protectors in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Slowing down Edwards will be at the top of the Thunder’s priority list, as Edwards is the engine of Minnesota’s offense.
This series will ultimately come down to these two-star guards.
Keys To The Series
Creating Turnovers
The Thunder have forced more turnovers than any other team, both in the regular season and the playoffs, and that trend followed suit in the matchups against the Wolves.
The Timberwolves are turning the ball over (14.8 times per game) and have a 15.7 percent turnover percentage—the highest of any remaining team in the playoffs, and the Thunder can exploit that area in this series.
The Thunder are forcing (18.3 turnovers per game) and scoring a playoff-best 24.7 points off turnovers.
They will be in good shape if the Thunder force turnovers and convert their transition opportunities.
Three-Point Shooting
The Thunder’s three-point shooting struggle continues, as it has been an issue all playoffs. They are shooting 31.9 percent from three, the worst among the remaining teams in the playoffs.
Here are every key rotational Thunder player’s three-point shooting percentages in the playoffs:
Jaylin Williams ➡️ 42.9% on 1.3 attempts
Alex Caruso ➡️ 41.7% on 4.4 attempts
Isaiah Joe ➡️ 38.2% on 3.1 attempts
Cason Wallace ➡️ 34.5% on 2.6 attempts
Aaron Wiggins ➡️ 33.3% on 3.8 attempts
Chet Holmgren ➡️ 32.1% on 4.8 attempts
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ➡️ 29.3% on 5.3 attempts
Lu Dort ➡️ 28% on 6.8 attempts
Jalen Williams ➡️ 25.4% on 5.4 attempts
In the regular season, the Wolves utilized the zone the most against the Thunder. Expect the Wolves to use a lot of zone and pack the paint.
If the Thunder want to advance to the NBA Finals, they must be more efficient from three.
X-Factors
Julius Randle
Julius Randle is playing the best stretch of basketball in his career. He’s been the most important player for the Wolves. Emerging and providing stability as the secondary option during this playoff run, he is averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.9 rebounds. Without his production, Minnesota wouldn’t have gotten this far.
Matching Randle’s physicality and force — will be where this is won or lost for the Thunder.
Jaden McDaniels
Jaden McDaniels is capable of big scoring nights. The Wolves are 7-1 this postseason when he scores 10+ points. He’s averaging 15.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, on 53 percent shooting from the floor and 42 percent from three.
McDaniels’s ability to knock down threes and attack closeouts while being the primary defender on Gilgeous-Alexander will be a huge swing factor in this series.
Naz Reid
Naz Reid has provided a huge spark off the bench for Minnesota. Reid’s averaging 11 points on 46% from three (on 4.5 attempts per game). His three-point shooting has been pivotal for the Wolves, and his ability to be a scoring punch off the bench will be an x-factor in this series.
Jalen Williams
Jalen Williams had a great first round and an up-and-down second round, averaging 17.5 points on 37 percent from the floor and 23 percent from three in the series. He stepped up when the Thunder needed him most in Game 7, scoring 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting against the Nuggets.
The Wolves will do everything they can to slow down Gilgeous-Alexander, making Williams’s creation the deciding factor in this series for the Thunder.
Chet Holmgren
It’s a homecoming for Chet Holmgren. The Minnesota native can be a problem for the Wolves with his length, ability to stretch out the defense, ability to attack closeouts, ability to attack Minnesota’s frontcourt off the dribble, and rim protection.
Holmgren is averaging 15.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game on 32 percent from three.
Holmgren’s presence and ability to neutralize Minnesota’s frontcourt will be an X-factor for the Thunder.
Series Prediction
Oklahoma City in six. Both the Thunder and the Wolves have star power, depth in numbers, and the ability to lock down on defense. However, the Thunder have the edge in those areas: they have the best player in the series, Gilgeous-Alexander, and the deeper team with the ability to go ten deep and go in another gear defensively.
The Thunder’s ability to wear you down and force turnovers, along with their home-court advantage against a tough Wolves team, will make the difference.
Main Image: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
