I’m going to be frank here. The Blake Snell signing was B A D.
Oh, please. This guy is 31 years old, and he’s washed. His two best seasons were in 2018 and 2023 when he had a sub-3 ERA, and when he won the Cy Young. Aside from that, all his other seasons have been really bad.
Let’s analyze.
Why the Blake Snell Signing Wasn’t Worth it
In 2019, his pitching run value was in the 57th percentile, somewhere below average. His offspeed run value was even worse, coming in at the 22nd percentile, a poor ranking. Average exit velocity metrics were in the 58th percentile, while walks came in the 33rd.
2020 was not a good season for Snell (World Series year for the Rays), but let’s say this was because of the short season and move on.
2021 was absolute GARBAGE. It was his first season as a San Diego Padre, and it was the beginning stages for the team you see today. Let’s begin with my rant. Snell had a pitching value in the 58th percentile, with an offspeed run value in the second. XERA came in at 4.82, which was in the 23rd percentile and his average exit velocity was in the 36th. While his Whiff and K rates were pretty high, they were not the usual Snell numbers. His BB% and Barrel percentage were in the 10th and 8th percentile, and his hard-hit numbers were in the 29th percentile.
2022 was a bit better than 2021, as Snell’s XERA and XBA were high once again, but he just can’t bring up his BB% and average exit velocity.
2023 was by far his best season, and this was the year he won the Cy Young. Yes, his walk percentage wasn’t good, but that was the only negative that season. No pitcher can be perfect, right?
Blake Snell had another great season in 2024, and his metrics were off the charts! But, he didn’t pitch the whole year and got injured often. Neither did he get a good warmup during spring training because Scott Boras screwed him over. He got better as the season progressed.
But, I still say no to Prop Blake Snell.
His play is part of my worries. He turns 32 on December 4th, and a five-year deal has him under contract until he’s 37 years old. But, that isn’t my main worry.
Snell has improved since that 2021 season, and I get that. But instead of signing him to a one or three-year deal, why sign him to a five-year deal? Fine, you sign him to a five-year deal, but is he worth that much money? For the stats you see above, 182 million dollars is quite a lot.
That’s my main worry. We could’ve used that money and signed someone else like Max Fried, who’s always in the 90th percentile in most stats. Same with Corbin Burnes, who’s been one of the top pitchers the last few years. These guys are all one year younger and have some playoff experience. Fried has won it all!
The contract does include some deferred money ($62 million), and the amount of deferred money the Los Angeles Dodgers owe altogether now surpassed one billion dollars. That’s a lot of money.
DODGERS ROTATION:
Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May.
Dodgers Rumors Roundup:
- Even with Jon Heyman saying that the Dodgers are still in the race for Juan Soto, after the Snell deal, it does seem unlikely that the Dodgers will make a huge push for Soto. I assume that if a bidding war begins, the Dodgers won’t go past 550 million dollars.
- With the signing of Snell, the Sporting News rumors that the Dodgers might lose Teoscar Hernandez to the New York Yankees on a $32 million contract.
- If the above actually happens, do we see Dalton Rushing or Diego Cartaya up in the majors playing the outfield?
- Michael Busch (Chicago Cubs) to the Dodgers trade rumors are on.
- According to Bleacher Report, it is said that the Yankees have upgraded their contract for Soto, making things even more lucrative. We do not know the numbers yet, but it is predicted that Juan Soto will choose his suitor on the first day of December.
And that’s it for me. Thanks for reading this piece. Do you agree? Disagree (most of you will disagree)? Put it in the comments below!
Main Image: Katie Stratman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
