A recent PFF poll listed the “Superflex Top 400” NFL players, ranking them regardless of position according to the players’ projected fantasy performance. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen topped the list. Other top NFL quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurst, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson filled spots two through six. Elite San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was the highest-ranked non-quarterback, nabbing the seventh spot. 60 rookies also made the list without ever playing a single NFL snap.
NFL Fantasy’s Most Underrated and Overrated Quarterbacks
Fantasy football involves just as much luck as skill when planning your draft. You could grab the number one overall pick only to see your superstar athlete have a season-ending injury in Week 1. Or, you could look like a genius by drafting a sleeper rookie running back who stuns the league with his mind-boggling moves and has a breakout season. When planning your draft, it’s helpful to research the pre-draft expert rankings. But on occasion, even the experts get it wrong. That’s why it’s risky to rely only on analytics. Did PFF get it wrong with their “Superflex Top 400”? Perhaps.
Here are a few examples from the list illustrating the most underrated and overrated NFL quarterbacks this season.
The Number One Ranking
There is no question that Josh Allen deserves the number-one ranking. With an average of 22.5 points per week, Allen’s fantasy managers were rewarded with over 2,082 career fantasy points. He is a dual-scoring threat through the air and on the ground. Capitalizing on his superior mobility and speed, Allen can be counted on for multiple scores and has earned as many as five touchdowns in a single game.
The Young Guns and The Veterans
It’s also understandable that successful young quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes, who led their teams to the Super Bowl rank highest. They’ve done a fantastic job and succeeded at the NFL’s highest level. Based on the analytics, their weekly point average would tend to be higher with fewer games.
However, here’s where the numbers don’t always add up. Veteran quarterback, Dak Prescott, is ranked QB7 with an average of 19 points per game. But Kyler Murray is ranked below him at QB8 with an average of 20.17 points.
The Most Underrated Quarterback
But one of the the biggest surprises on the list was the low ranking given to Detroit Lions quarterback, Jared Goff. Coming in at a disappointing number 38 overall and ranked QB17, Goff is the most underrated quarterback on the list. It’s hard to understand the rationale that justifies ranking 16 other quarterbacks higher. Goff led the Lions to their first Division Championship game in over 30 years. In 2023, he passed for 4,575 yards with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a 67.5 completion percentage. Goff’s stats the previous year were equally impressive. He earned a 99.3 passer rating throwing for 4,438 with 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His fantasy managers acquired 1,879.2 fantasy points during Goff’s NFL career.
The Most Overrated Quarterbacks
What is hard to justify is how a rookie quarterback who has yet to throw a single NFL pass ranks higher than Goff. Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is rated the QB11, ahead of both Prescott and Goff. It’s absurd that a rookie earned such a high ranking. Almost as hard to comprehend is how Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who played in only four games last year, ranks higher than Goff at QB8. Richardson only earned a career total of 72.7 points or 18.1 points per game.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love played in only 27 games, earning 351 career fantasy points (or 13.03 points per week) and ranked one spot below Goff as the QB18.
When it comes to predicting who will have a great season, a quarterback’s history and analytics are only one element to consider. There are other factors to keep in mind. How strong is the offensive line and the group of receivers? Does the team have a solid ground game? Even when the supporting cast around them is ever-changing, quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson scramble and find a way to make things happen on their own.
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