Life is a funny thing. Oftentimes, you plan and you plan, you budget and you budget, and things still go off the rails. We had planned on publishing the Week 4 picks but work and the impending birth of my child tend to get in the way.
Regardless, we are back! College Football is in full swing and last week was as exciting as any in the past few years. The sheer number of ranked matchups was legitimately bonkers.
Week 5 College Football Game Spread Best Bets
In order to make sure the picks were held accountable, we Xeeted out our picks of SMU (+6.5), UTSA (+21.5), Ohio State (-3.0), James Madison (-5.5), and Washington (-20.5).
Yikes.
All in all, we go 2-2 with an Ohio State push, which we won’t count as a win, loss, or tie. SMU got smashed, as did UTSA. However, JMU and Washington helped out the cause.
Overall: 15-9 (2-2 last week, 2-3 in Week 3)
Miami OH -14.5 at Kent State
What better way to kick off the Week 5 picks than a little #MACtion? Historically, the Redhawks have owned the Golden Flashed and then some. This will be the 70th matchup and Miami (OH) is coming off a nice win last year.
Miami (OH) is coming into this game 3-1 with this being their first MAC game. After dropping the Confusion Bowl to start the year, the Redhawks have rattled off three consecutive wins and are feeling good. One of those wins was over rival Cincinnati for the Victory Bell for the first time since 2005.
In the offseason, everyone from the coaches, starting playmakers, and even the mascot jumped ship to the Transfer Portal. Overall, the Flashes are doing their best but it’s going to be a very long season.
Miami (OH) has looked good and has an offense that can move the ball behind the mighty Brett Gabbert. Kent State’s defense is a mess. Even if this is a conference game, spotting Kent State 14.5 points won’t be enough. Miami (OH) is looking to get back to the MAC Title Game and they’ll be well on their way after this week.
[24] Kansas (+16.5) at [3] Texas
Is Texas Kansas back? Well, maybe not, but Kansas at Texas is setting up to be an exciting matchup in the year of our Lord 2023. This will be the 22nd time these two face off and the Longhorns have a commanding 16-4 lead. Kansas won the first two matchups prior to WWII and has won two of the last six games.
The Jayhawks, again, have started off strong. They’re 4-0 again and have been able to put up points. Jalon Daniels has backed up his fantastic 2022 with another hot start. This Kansas team can move the ball down the field and will be able to score.
Texas has one of the best wins thus far in this young season with a win at Alabama. Quinn Ewers is solidifying himself as a legitimate Heisman candidate and has one of the top receiving corps in the year. Texas has started off its 2023 season hot and is a serious CFP contender.
Kansas getting the win over Texas would be massive for the program because this marks the final Big 12 matchup between the two. On paper, these teams match up fairly well. Kansas likely won’t get the outright win in Austin however they’ll be able to keep it close. Texas is 2-2 ATS and 1-2 ATS as a favorite. The Longhorns should be able to get the win at home but Kansas covers.
[2] Michigan at Nebraska (+16.5)
For the 13th time (and 11th time in the regular season), Michigan takes on Nebraska in a battle of two of the top college football programs in history. The Cornhuskers haven’t beaten the Wolverines since their back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017. Michigan owns the overall record, 7-4-1.
Michigan has come into the year as the Big 10 favorite. They’ve routed their rival in back-to-back years and returned the majority of their talent. But this year, they’ve been good but not great. Despite their incredibly soft schedule to start the year, Michigan has yet to destroy an opponent as expected.
Nebraska is still in flux. It’s Matt Rhule’s first year in the program. They’re coming off of a pair of wins after starting the year 0-2. Heinrich Haarberg is making a legit argument to be given the reigns of the program. While they haven’t been overly inspiring to date, they’re not as inept as they were at the end of the previous regime.
Michigan should be able to get the easy win here. However, they’re 0-3-1 ATS thus far, the most egregious was how close Bowling Green kept it because of the poor play of J.J. McCarthy. If that was Ohio or Toledo (with a healthy DeQuan Finn) or any good MAC team, Michigan would have lost. They’ll get to 5-0 after this one but Nebraska should be able to keep it remotely interesting.
[11] Notre Dame (-5.5) at [17] Duke
After it’s gut-wrenching loss at home to Ohio State, Notre Dame gets to kick off its pseudo-ACC schedule with noted football school…Duke. Believe it or not, this is just the eighth time these two programs have faced off, and the Irish own a 5-2 record.
The Irish offense is still very solid. They have a five-pronged rushing attack that will eat up just about anyone and Sam Hartman is the best quarterback they’ve had in a very long time. The strength of this team last week was its defense (when they played 11 men, of course). Holding Ohio State to 17 points is a feat in and of itself. They’ll be fine.
Duke started off the year with a massive win against Clemson, sparking the debate of whether or not the Tigers are cooked. Either way, Riley Leonard has proven to be a legit quarterback, leading the Blue Devils to a 4-0 mark and as confident as they’ve been in a long time. He only has two passing touchdowns but that’s thanks to the fact that the team is second in the nation with 15 touchdowns on the ground. It doesn’t hurt to have the fourth-best scoring defense either.
This will be a very good game. Notre Dame is licking its wounds and is looking to get its swagger back. Duke is trying to look like the Grim Reaper in that meme with a showdown with Florida State and North Carolina down the road. The Irish are going to get back on track and win this one by a score. Duke will put up a fight, however. Don’t be surprised if this one is back-and-forth.
[7] Washington (-17.5) at Arizona
Finally, we have some good ole #Pac12AfterDark as Washington takes on Arizona in a game that kicks off at 10:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. What a day. The Huskies own a 25-11-1 advantage over the Wildcats in a very one-sided rivalry. Will Washington extend its streak to seven?
If Michael Penix, Jr. has anything to say about it, they sure will. Penix has taken the college football world by storm this year and he’s been lighting it up at every stop. This Washington offense is one of the best in the nation and it would not be surprising if they end the year as a top-five unit.
Arizona has started off a respectable 3-1 after quite a number of futile years on the gridiron. Jayden De Laura leads the way and has seemingly taken another step in his development.
All in all, it’s nice that Arizona has started off well. However, Washington is here and is here to stay (at least for this year). The Huskies will cover and cover easily.
