As the NBA season heats up, several stars are emerging and seem to be having career years. While Luka Doncic entered the year as the MVP favorite, a slow shooting start has opened the door for an array of superstars to make their early-season case. Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards have gotten off to fast starts as they look to cement themselves as faces of the league. Anthony Davis and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have their teams sitting at or near the top of the Western Conference as they look to silence the critics. Nikola Jokic has gone supernova and is playing some of the best basketball of his life, yet his team is below .500. So, who are the leading candidates to win MVP two weeks in?
(stats as of morning of Nov. 2)
Players on MVP Watch Through the First Two Weeks
Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics
Tatum has started the season off playing with a chip on his shoulder. Maybe it was the limited minutes in the Olympics, or maybe it was him not winning the Finals MVP award, but Tatum is playing angrily and is off to the best start of his career. Through the Celtics’ first six games, he is averaging 30.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while shooting 48% from the field and 37% from three. He ranks third in the NBA in scoring and has the seventh-best plus-minus in the league, leading the Celtics to a 5-1 start while having the best offense in the NBA. The sportsbooks have noticed Tatum’s excellence, as while he started the year with odds of +1500 to win MVP, he now has the third-best odds, at +425.
Beyond the stats, the eye test confirms how good Tatum has been. His three-point stroke looks as good as it’s ever been, he’s playing hard on defense and crashing the boards, and he’s the vocal leader of the best team in the NBA. If the Celtics keep winning and Tatum keeps putting up stats, then the 26-year-old winning his first MVP could be in the cards.
Anthony Davis – Los Angeles Lakers
JJ Redick has found a way to unlock Davis. Redick has centered the Lakers’ offense around his talented big man, and Davis has responded by averaging a league-high 31.8 points on 57% shooting and also contributing 12 rebounds per game. This might be the best Davis has looked in his entire career, and his play has helped the Lakers shock the league with their 4-2 start. In addition to his role on offense, Davis has once again been one of the best defenders in the league, averaging 1.8 steals and 2.0 blocks per game. Davis has been doing everything for the Lakers so far this season and is showing that he is one of the best two-way players in the league.
The advanced stats back up Davis’ dominance. Davis has the second-best Player Impact Estimate in the league, only behind Nikola Jokic, and the second-best average game score, nearly 29. If he can stay healthy all year, Davis will have a career-defining season and put his name in the MVP race.
Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves
The addition of Julius Randle, a physical bruiser who lives at the rim, has forced Edwards to change his play style- but it might be for the better. Edwards is shooting a league-high 13.4 threes per game, two times more than last year, and is shooting a career-high 43.3% on those attempts. While we had come to know Edwards as an aggressive attacker who was at his best in the painted area, so far, he has been a knockdown shooter, off the catch and off the dribble, who still has the athleticism to get by his defender if needed. The limited shooting of the pairing of Randle and Rudy Gobert in the frontcourt has caused this change in Edwards’ game, but his adaptability has allowed him to continue to ascend, averaging 29.8 points per game.
Edwards has helped the Timberwolves get off to a 3-2 start, and Minnesota should only get better as their players continue to mesh and learn each other’s play styles. If the Timberwolves can win 50-plus games with Edwards averaging north of 30 points per game, it might be hard to deny him of the MVP award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder
While Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled to shoot the ball early on, his overall impact on the game and value to the Thunder cannot be denied. It seems he wanted to make it a point to shoot more threes this season, getting up nearly eight per game compared to 3.6 last year, yet he’s struggled to find his range. Despite shooting 25% from three, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 26.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and six assists throughout the Thunder’s 5-0 start. His playmaking capabilities have been evident, and his renowned composure and ability to play at his own pace have been on full display early on.
Another factor of Gilgeous-Alexander’s game that deserves recognition is his defense. He’s averaging 2.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, has the seventh-best individual defensive rating, and has the most defensive win shares in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander is a vital part of the best defense in the NBA and is putting his two-way abilities on full display. Gilgeous-Alexander is the current favorite to win MVP at +225, so this ranking should not surprise anyone.
Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
Jokic has been absolutely unstoppable in his first five games. He’s averaging a 30-point triple-double on 56% shooting from the field and 57% from three. Jokic is first in the NBA in Player Impact Estimate, first in average game score, third in offensive rating, fourth in assist percentage, ninth in rebound percentage, and fifth in net rating (behind four Celtics). I give all of these stats to show how unlikely it is that the Nuggets are 2-3 despite having their best player playing at a historic level. With Jokic on the court, the Nuggets are scoring 43 more points per 100 possessions than when he is off the court; their effective field goal percentage is 21 points higher when Jokic is playing. The on versus off-court time with Jokic has always been a problem for the Nuggets, but it has never been this drastically different. Jokic, one player, turns what would be one of the worst teams in the NBA into one of the best. Jokic has been by far and away the best player in the NBA this season, yet his team’s struggles hamper his chances of winning MVP. It is unfortunate that one of the greatest players in NBA history is wasting one of his best years on such a limited roster.
Will the MVP winner be one of Tatum, Davis, Edwards, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jokic? Will Luka Doncic get things going in Dallas? Can Giannis Antetokounmpo turn things around in Milwaukee? We are two weeks in and already have so many storylines. Make sure to follow along to keep up.
Main Image: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
I’m betting on Jokic!