After a winning Friday where we went 2-1, we are back to look for more MLB best bets on Saturday, May 11th. There is another full slate of 15 MLB games to choose from, so we dive into the numbers to see what information we can find and how to use those to make winning picks.
MLB Best Bets for Saturday, May 11th
Best Bet #1) Philadelphia Phillies money line (-125)
This play may be one of the most simple in terms of explanation, being that the Philadelphia Phillies are good and the Miami Marlins are bad. After beating Miami in game one of their series last night, the Phillies’ 27-12 record this season is the best in MLB, the result of a combo of hitting and pitching excellence.
In their last four series, Philadelphia’s offense ranks top of the league in batting average, slugging, and wRC+. On the mound, their starting pitchers rank 3rd in SIERA and their bullpen ranks 2nd, showing just how complete this team has been. The Marlins have been the opposite, sporting bottom half ranks in average, slugging, and wRC+ in that same span, and their pitching hasn’t been any better, with the starting staff ranking 19th and the bullpen ranking 29th in SIERA. With the massive advantages the Phillies have in all facets of this matchup, they should get the win in a contest that they should be much larger favorites in.
Best Bet #2) Kansas City Royal First 5 Innings -0.5 run (+100)
The Kansas City Royals were able to take game one of their series against the Los Angeles Angels in dramatic fashion, where they needed a two-run home run in the top of the 9th to give them their first runs scored of the game, also giving them the lead and an eventual win. Kansas City have been a pleasant surprise this year, sitting 24-16 and just a half game back of the top of the AL West despite having low preseason expectations.
They have been able find success this year despite a middling offense, ranking 20th in the league in wRC+, however they have picked up the slack recently and rank 12th in their last four series. The Royals’ starters have been excellent, ranking 4th in ERA and 12th in SIERA this season. One of the starters who has contributed mightily to that is LHP Cole Ragans, who has been great in 2024, posting the 20th best SIERA and 22nd best Stuff+ grade of 143 starters with 20+ innings pitched.
We backed and cashed in on Ragans earlier this week, and am looking to do it again when he takes on a struggling Angels team on Saturday. Los Angeles has been alright against southpaws on paper this year (12th in wRC+) but their overall stats are inflated due to the injured Mike Trout, and they rank just 20th in wRC+ since his departure from the lineup.
The Angels will send out a their own left hander in Tyler Anderson, who has several negative regression characteristics in his profile. Despite having the 32nd best ERA among starters with 20+ innings pitched, his xERA is over twice that due to his low ground ball and strikeout rates, giving an indication that his results are exceeding how he is actually performing. Anderson has thrived on getting teams to swing on pitches outside the zone (22nd O-Swing%) and not making contact on pitches inside the zone (16th in Z-Contact%), but the Royals excel in each of those areas themselves, ranking top-half in O-Swing% and 5th best in Z-Contact over their last four series.
With the Royals sending out a dominant pitcher to the mound in Ragans and facing a starter due for regression in Anderson, they should be able to take a lead into the second half of the contest.
Best Bet #3) Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres o8.5 runs (-136)
While there were only three runs scored in the first matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres this weekend, don’t expect that to be the same tonight. Los Angeles will be looking to get back on track after dropping the opener on Friday, and their offense has a good chance to bounce back too.
Despite their lackluster performance last night, the Dodgers offense ranks in the top-five in almost every offensive category over the course of the year and the past few series.
This firepower should show up against Padres’ starter Matt Waldron, who has given up four or more runs in four of his seven starts due to low ground ball and strikeout rates, resulting in Waldron ranking 103rd in SIERA and 119th in his Stuff+ grade. The Dodgers stellar offense should be able to further Waldron’s issues before doing the same to the San Diego bullpen, which ranks in the bottom-half in SIERA and xFIP over their past four series.
On the other side, the Padres get a good matchup against a pitcher not performing as well as his results indicate in LHP James Paxton, who owns the worst SIERA among 143 pitchers with 20+ innings pitched and the fourth-worst Stuff+ grade. While the Padres haven’t done particularly well against left handed pitching (21st in wRC+), they have some positive factors against southpaws, including a top-five walk rate that could be helpful against Paxton’s 2nd highest walk rate among starters.
With the pitching problems on each side of this matchup, there should be plenty of opportunity for runs to be scored in game between these two on Saturday.
