All 30 MLB teams will be in action Friday night, with 15 series kicking off this weekend. It is officially May, so we finally have a full month of data on each team as their profiles start to take more accurate shape. This gives us a solid dataset to work with when evaluating the upcoming matchups and making predictions, so let’s dive into tonight’s slate and see what information we can find to make some MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 3rd
Best bet #1) Toronto Blue Jays First 5 innings -0.5 run (-120)
While backing Toronto Blue Jays this year has not been profitable, coming in as the ninth least profitable team on their moneyline, they are a good bet in the first half of their game Friday night against the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are sending out LHP Patrick Corbin, who has had a bad start to the 2024 season after registering a 4.70 SIERA across his first six starts, ranking 127th of 136 starting pitchers with 20+ innings pitched, and has given up four-plus runs in five of his six starts. This bodes well for the Blue Jays despite their offensive struggles in the first half of the season, especially since they have been better against southpaws, ranking 12th in MLB with a 105 wRC+.
They will send out a LHP of their own in Yusei Kikuchi, who has been great this year and owns the 23rd-best SIERA at 3.18 due to a high strikeout rate and a solid 45.2% ground ball rate. With the much better-starting pitcher and the good matchup against Corbin, Toronto should carry a lead after five innings of work.
Best bet #2) New York Yankees Team Total over 4.5 runs (+120)
After a slow start to the year from the whole lineup, the New York Yankees offense has caught fire the past week, posting a .254 batting average and a .447 slugging percentage over their last three series. They host the Detroit Tigers this weekend and face RHP Reese Olson on Friday night, whose 4.09 SIERA ranks in the bottom half among starting pitchers with 20+ innings pitched.
This should bode well for the hot New York bats, who also rank third in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Even if they don’t tee off on Olson, the Yankees can also find success against a Detroit bullpen that ranks 17th in SIERA this season, giving several avenues for them to put up five-plus runs.
Best bet #3) Oakland A’s moneyline (-142)
No one could have expected it, but the Oakland A’s have quietly won six of their last seven games and are shaping up to be an alright ball club after an abysmal start. While the offense is nothing to write home about, their pitching has kept them competitive, getting serviceable work from the starters in front of a stellar bullpen whose 3.17 SIERA ranks sixth in the league.
This is less of a play on Oakland, however, as a play against the Miami Marlins. While the Marlins did just sweep the lowly Colorado Rockies, Miami is not a good team, sitting at just 8-24 overall. Their lackluster offense ranks just 26th in wRC+ and their pitching has also struggled, with the starters ranking collectively 25th in SIERA and the bullpen just 21st. The Marlins have to fly across the country on no rest for this matchup with the A’s, so I expect a rested Oakland team currently riding to get it done at home.
Main Image: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
