The Jaguars vs Patriots week seven matchup is the breaking point of the Jaguars season, as it’s Doug Pederson‘s last chance to keep his job as head coach. The Jaguars are tied for the worst record in the NFL, with the historically awful Cleveland Browns offense, their week seven opponent the New England Patriots, and the aimless Carolina Panthers.
With only half the season remaining, the Jacksonville Jaguars desperately need a win. Pederson has been on the hot seat since the late season collapse from 2023, and now that the Jaguars are off to one of the worst starts in the NFL in 2024, this might be Pederson’s last chance.
Jaguars vs Patriots Week Seven: Pederson’s Last Game?
As has been the case since the Jaguars’ week one loss to the Miami Dolphins, Pederson has been on the hot seat. It’s been a struggle in nearly every phase, with the offense and defense struggling each week in various ways. There is so much that needs to be fixed following the loss to the Bears, and plenty of things regressed after the Jaguars beat the Colts and failed to build upon momentum. The pass rush has been inconsistent, and the cornerbacks have been banged up and giving up the most yards in the NFL. But the most prominent issue has been the offense’s ineptitude.
The offensive line has been one of the most disappointing aspects of the team, with a lot of hype for the revamped line coming into the 2024 season. Trevor Lawrence was supposed to have a breakout campaign with a strong receiving corps, but he’s struggled more than expected despite having good underlining numbers. Gabriel Davis has had multiple dropped touchdowns, and Brian Thomas Jr. has also had key drops in his rookie campaign. Christian Kirk has gotten off to a rough start and has only been recently playing closer to what he is being paid to be. Evan Engram finally returned from injury and played well against the Chicago Bears, but there is still more to be desired from one of the targets that Lawrence relies upon.
Overall, it’s been an incredibly disappointing and frustrating 2024 campaign, and with a one-and-five record, the Jaguars are on the verge of a full-blown collapse if they fall to the Patriots. Pederson, Trent Baalke, Press Taylor, and many other coaches could be on their way out of Jacksonville if the Jaguars lose to the Patriots. Their second London game in a row is a matchup the Jaguars can’t afford to lose, as it would effectively eliminate any chances of making the playoffs with how much of a struggle it’s been through six weeks. To keep their jobs and not lose to the Patriots, there are two main keys to victory the Jaguars need to achieve: establish a strong running game and get pressure on Drake Maye.
Establish The Run Early
In week six, establishing the run was one of the keys to victory for Jacksonville, but thanks to a rough start offensively from Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby on the ground, the Jaguars run game was completely snuffed out. Against the Patriots, the Jaguars run game needs to work early. Etienne is banged up and is a game-time decision, so Bigsby is expected to get most of the work on the ground. The Patriots are the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL according to PFF, and with a top-ten running game, the Jaguars should be able to move the ball on the ground.
However, one of the biggest issues with the Jaguars has been the overall disconnect throughout the organization. This also is apparent with how the Jaguars running game grades out inside the top ten, but the run blocking is in the bottom ten according to PFF. It’s a running game reliant upon the rushers, and with Bigbsy being the lead back for week seven, it’s a huge opportunity for the Jaguars’ second-year back to potentially earn a solid role down the stretch of the season.
D’Ernest Johnson will also see some work, with his main role coming on passing downs and situations. While not a bad back, Bigsby has a lot more rushing upside, and if the Jaguars fall behind they would be putting Johnson on the field more than Bigsby. The Jaguars must get off to a strong and fast start offensively, and one of the best ways to do that is by getting the ball to Bigsby on the ground early and often.
Generate Pressure
If the Jaguars defense had one area where they should be great, it would be in the pass rush game. Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, and Arik Armstead should be a dominant trio generating pressure. However, the Jaguars are one of the worst in the NFL in creating pressure, ranked ninth worst in the NFL by PFF pass rush grade. Hines-Allen leads the Jaguars in pressures with 24, while Walker is second with 23. Third is Roy Robertson-Harris, who was traded to the Seattle Seahawks, with 11 pressures.
The Jaguars’ pass rush is one of the worst in the NFL, ranked ninth by PFF and second worst according to ESPN. Fortunately for Jacksonville, the Patriots pass protection unit is one of the worst in the NFL. ESPN has graded the Patriots as having tied for the worst pass protection unit. It’s a stoppable force meeting a moveable object in London between these two units, and for Jacksonville generating pressure on Maye is something they must do to win.
One of the biggest frustrations with the Jaguars pass rush is that getting to the quarterback is so important, as the secondary has been banged up and easy to pass on through six weeks. Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown have struggled, but with Tyson Campbell potentially returning, things could be looking better for the secondary against a Patriots receiving corps full of journeymen and young players fighting for playing time. If there was one matchup for the Jaguars pass rush to succeed, it would be against the Patriots in week seven.
Is This The Breaking Point For The Jaguars Season?
It’s gotten to the point for Jacksonville, that it’s an elimination game this early in the season. With the Jaguars playing in London for the second straight week, they should be more than ready for the Patriots. Pederson needs to secure a win against what most see as an inferior opponent. The Jaguars’ offense should be significantly better, and the defense should generate pressure against a revolving-door offensive line. If there was one game of the season that could be called the breaking point, for better or worse, it would be the Jaguars and Patriots week seven matchup in London.
A win would buy Pederson another week or two, and make the fans, and especially Shad Khan, feel a little better about the team. While still firmly out of the playoff picture, it would give a window of opportunity for the Jaguars to have a strong second half to make ground for a potential wild-card spot.
A loss would be the beginning of the end for Jacksonville in 2024. Pederson would most likely be fired, and Taylor would follow. The Jaguars would be a one-and-six team that just lost to the Patriots, a team that has played incredibly poorly through the beginning of the season. A loss would be disastrous for Jacksonville’s playoff chances, and would effectively cement the Jaguars as one of, if not the worst, teams in the NFL.
Not only would a loss put Pederson and other members of the front office and coaching staff at risk of losing their jobs, but it could also spell a fire sale at the trade deadline. Kirk and Etienne have been floating around in trade rumors for some time now, and the Jaguars would most likely begin making moves looking to the future. There would be little hope left with a loss, and a lot of changes would most likely be made to try and salvage anything from what would probably end up being a disastrous 2024 season.
Between the heartbreaking week four loss to the Texans, and the monumental collapse that spurred the Jaguars into a downward spiral against the Bills, the Jaguars have been steadily collapsing for some time now. This is not only Pederson’s last chance to avoid a complete collapse, but also the Jaguars’ last chance to be competitive in 2024. A loss would end the Jaguars season, and mean a lot of change would be coming to Jacksonville in 2025. It’s already been disappointing, but a loss to the Patriots in London would be the final nail in the coffin for the Jaguars 2024 season.
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