With the season unraveling, the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions week 11 matchup presents a huge challenge for a banged-up Jaguars team to play spoiler. The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Jaguars are reeling after another brutal loss that was well within reach. Heading into week 11, the Jaguars are dealing with many injuries and are once again in prime position to play spoiler against one of the top teams in the NFL.
How the Jaguars Can Beat the Best Team: Jaguars vs Lions Week 11
Jacksonville and Detroit are heading in opposite directions, with the Lions ascending into stardom and the Jaguars falling by the wayside. Both teams had top two picks in 2022, and the Jaguars selected Travon Walker while the Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson. Since that selection, these two teams have been tied together, with comparisons being thrown at both teams and their decision-making both on and off the field. Despite the similar scenarios just a few years ago, the teams couldn’t be much further apart now.
The Lions are the best team in the NFL, and the Jaguars are tied for the worst team in the NFL. In the Jaguars vs Vikings week ten matchup, the Jaguars tried to play spoiler but came up short. Once again, the Jaguars face an NFC North team that has been among the best in the NFL, except this time the Jaguars are a poor matchup. If the Jaguars want to have any chance to beat the Lions and play spoiler, three keys to victory need to be met.
First Key To Victory: Have an Efficient Passing Game
Starting with the most unlikely key to victory, the Jaguars passing offense needs to be at its best against the Lions. One of the main factors behind the Lions’ success is their ability to stop the run, forcing teams to throw the ball. This dynamic also comes to fruition thanks to the Lions going up big early and often in games, causing the other team to play catch-up by throwing the ball. Jacksonville is in a tough situation, however, with their franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence out with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Mac Jones gets another start, and he needs to be better than he was against the Minnesota Vikings.
The offense under Jones was completely inept against the Vikings, with very few positives coming through the air all day long. Multiple turnovers, in key spots with a chance to drive down the field for a late go-ahead score, stifled any chance the Jaguars had at winning. Now, against the Lions’ defense which is prone to giving up passing yards, sixth most in the NFL through 10 weeks, the offense needs to find its footing and move the ball through the air. Jones is the key, and if he can tap into some of his rookie-year performances, the Jaguars have a chance to make things interesting on Sunday.
To have a successful passing game, Jones’ receivers also need to be utilized correctly. Against the Vikings, the offense didn’t use their wide receivers nearly enough. Brian Thomas Jr. needs to be involved early and often, including vertical shots down the field. Gabriel Davis also needs to play better and tap into some of his Buffalo Bills days. But most importantly, the Jaguars need to use Evan Engram and Travis Etienne Jr. in the passing game. Both are great options, some of the better receivers for their positions, but the offense has recently been using other players too much.
Against a strong run defense, Tank Bigsby won’t have nearly the same usage as he did in the Jaguars vs Patriots week seven game in London. Between the tough matchup and the injury to Bigsby, Etienne should be a focal point of the offensive attack in the passing game. Doug Pederson and Press Taylor also need to limit the usage of Brenton Strange and Luke Farrell in the passing game, as they don’t provide nearly enough of a spark as the rest of the receivers.
Another player to keep an eye on is Parker Washington. He wasn’t utilized much despite the season-ending injury to Christian Kirk, and the offense could benefit from such a dynamic player getting the ball more. Even two touches a game could lead to chunk plays that result in touchdown drives instead of punts or field goals.
Overall, the Jaguars pass game needs to be at its best if there is any hope of beating a tough Lions team. The potential is there despite Lawrence and Kirk missing this matchup, but if the right players aren’t utilized it will all be moot. Engram, Thomas, Etienne, and Davis should get at minimum 85 percent of the targets. They’re the best options on offense, and using the other players won’t amount to much success in a matchup that could devolve into a blowout at any moment.
Second Key To Victory: Stop The Run
It’s a simple part of the game plan for the Jaguars, but it might be the most important part. If the Lions can run the ball on Jacksonville, the game won’t be within reach. Looking across the NFL, there is no better running back tandem than the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The duo, self-proclaimed ‘Sonic and Knuckles’ has been the difference in so many games for the Lions. Gibbs has been one of the best runners in the NFL, breaking off long runs left and right, and is also involved in the passing game. Montgomery has been the power back, running over and through defenders en route to plenty of goal-line touchdowns.
Between the two running backs, the running game is one of the best in the NFL. If the Jaguars are to beat the Lions, stopping the duo, or at least limiting them, is the biggest key to victory on defense for Jacksonville. One of the best ways to limit the run game is to win along the line of scrimmage. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, along with Arik Armstead, DaVon Hamilton, and Jeremiah Ledbetter, will be the key pieces along the defensive line to break up the running game.
The Lions’ run blocking has been incredible, grading out by PFF as the fourth highest in the NFL. The Jaguars defensive line will have their work cut out for them against a stout front. But, the Houston Texans managed to limit the damage in a tough matchup against the Lions in week ten, and the Jaguars could capitalize on that momentum to limit the Lions’ run game.
Another massive part of the Jaguars run defense will be the linebacker play. Fortunately for Jacksonville, their linebackers are among the best in the NFL, and have a history of limiting the run. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case this season, but should be something that Jacksonville sees from the group in week 11 with everyone healthy and used to the new defensive scheme. Foyesade Oluokun, Devin Lloyd, Ventrell Miller, and Chad Muma make up the Jaguars linebacker corps, and a group that should be capable of limiting a strong Lions run game.
At the end of the day, the Jaguars’ defense has been slowly and steadily improving throughout the season, and the Jaguars should be capable of stopping the run game from Montgomery and Gibbs. If they can limit the run game, the Jaguars would be more than capable of staying in the game, as long as the offense can keep pace with the Lions’ incredible passing game.
Third Key To Victory: Limiting Goff and the Passing Game
What could be the toughest task for the Jaguars on Sunday, stopping the Lions passing game, is seemingly within reach thanks to what the Jaguars showed in their week ten loss to the Vikings. Despite the loss, the pass defense was much better, getting a strong performance from free agent acquisition Ronald Darby and the return of Tyson Campbell to elite levels. Jarrian Jones has steadily improved throughout the season, and the defense has been a much more cohesive unit in the past few weeks.
Jared Goff and the Lions will probably be the toughest matchup this iteration of the Jaguars defense has faced, with the efficiency for the Lions being amongst the best in the NFL. However, there is some hope for Jacksonville thanks to their division rival Texans. In week ten, Goff threw five interceptions, yet still won. While unlikely that the Jaguars match the defensive output from the Texans, the Jaguars are coming off a game with multiple key red-zone interceptions. It’s well within the possibility that the Jaguars’ defense can force a few turnovers from Goff.
Part of limiting the passing game will be to get pressure, and with Hines-Allen and Walker playing well, there is some hope that the defense can generate pressure, especially with the blueprint the Texans provided the NFL with during their Sunday night football performance from week ten. But, while the Texans’ defensive line has performed better this season, the Jaguars aren’t far off. Like the Jaguars defensive backs forcing turnovers, the pass rush has a chance to get home.
The other most important aspect of the Lions’ passing game is the receiving options. Amon Ra St Brown is among the best wide receivers in the NFL, and Jameson Williams is an explosive weapon that can be challenging to contain. Sam LaPorta is likely to miss the game, so the Jaguars defense will be spared from accounting for a tough tight end. But, Gibbs more than makes up for his absence in the passing game. Overall, the Jaguars will have to account for fewer passing options than the Philadelphia Eagles had, but the task won’t be any less challenging. The strong run game will make defending the pass difficult, not to mention how great Goff has been in 2024.
With a well-balanced offense, the Lions should be capable of moving the ball on any team. The Jaguars’ defense will have their hands full, regardless of what personnel the Lions throw out there. Gibbs and Montgomery will be hard to suppress in the run game, and St Brown and Williams are far from easy coverage assignments. The success of the defense comes down to the players, and which Jaguars’ defense will be present. Will it be the Jaguars defense we saw in week ten, where they got pressure and limited the Vikings’ passing game, to go with multiple key turnovers? Or, will it be the defense that the Jaguars have had most of the year, where they get beat by nearly every quarterback, regardless of receiving talent? It’s up to the players on defense, and with how great they have been playing recently, there is real reason for optimism for a Jaguars defense that’s finally finding its footing.
Final Jaguars vs Lions Preview
As orchestrated in the three keys to victory, the Jaguars will be relying on individual efforts more so than coaching if they want to beat the NFL’s best team. Campbell and Darby can show up and lock down the Lions’ receivers, or they could be burned all day long. Either outcome is well within the possibilities for the Jaguars. The same goes for the success of the run game, and whether the Jaguars can stop the dynamic duo of Montgomery and Gibbs.
At the end of the day, the Jaguars’ defense will be tested against the potent Lions offense. Was the performance against the Vikings real, or fools gold? There’s not a bigger question heading into the Jaguars vs Lions week 11 matchup than that. While the Jaguars passing offense will need to be efficient and effective, the defensive performance is much more important in determining the outcome of this game.
While it’s going to be a massive uphill battle for Jacksonville, the odds aren’t completely against them. Between the Jaguars’ recent resurgence on defense, and Goff turning the ball over five times in his most recent matchup, the Jaguars have more of a chance than most would think. Even in their week nine loss to the Eagles, where Jacksonville was outmatched for the entire first half, at the end of the game they had a chance to beat a top team in the NFL. This Jaguars team is capable of winning against tough teams, and this week might be the toughest one yet.
This game could be huge for the rest of the season for Jacksonville as well. Despite being so far from a playoff spot, the Jaguars, with a win, could see a reason to bring Lawrence back after the bye despite his injury. A loss would all but guarantee he sits down the stretch, but a win could bring the Jaguars starting quarterback back into the fold. And with Pederson, one of the coaches on the hot seat across the NFL, a loss, especially a blowout, could spell the end of an era in Jacksonville.
Regardless of the return of Lawrence, a loss to the Lions would be the final nail in the coffin to the Jaguars season. Trying to come back from a two and nine record would be near impossible, and signal that the season is officially a losing one. The Jaguars can avoid such an outcome if all the keys to victory happen, but against a top team like the Lions, the odds are not in the Jaguars’ favor. It’s the Jaguars’ last chance for the 2024 season, will they be able to pull off the biggest upset of the year?
Main Image: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
