Death, taxes, and the NBA world calling Luka Doncic a terrible defender seem to be the three biggest guarantees in life. How bad of a defender is Doncic though? Actually, the better question should be is Doncic a terrible defender? Is he even a bad defender? I know NBA fans and the media will sound off with “Yes he is a horrible defender”, “he leads the league in blow-by percentages”, and “Look at the ending of the Utah Jazz game that happened almost a month ago. He doesn’t even try to play defense”. However, as social media would say, those are casual takes. Let’s look at the actual data and stats of Doncic’s defense and break down if he is actually a bad defender.
A couple of terms and their shorthand notation for you to know in this article: DR is defensive rating which means the amount of points someone would score on them per 100 possessions. Defensive FG% is the field goal % a defender held opposing players to as the primary defender. Steal percentage is the percentage of possessions that end in a steal by the defensive player as the primary defender. DWS is defensive win shares which is the amount of wins shared as a player based solely on their defense.
Stats as of December 10th, 2024
Is Doncic Bad At Defense?
Luka’s Defensive Stats
As of now, Doncic has a defensive rating of 108 and is averaging 2.6 steals per game. The two steals per game is a career high and the 108 DR is second behind his 107 DR the year they got to the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors. Luka is currently holding opposing players to 46% field goal percentage. While that is not great, the league average for field goal percentage is about 47.5%. So it is better than average.
Now, let’s compare Doncic to another point guard who, for many years, was labeled as a horrible defender who at least put forth effort on the defensive side, Stephen Curry. Curry has a career average of 108 DR and 1.5 steals for his career. Doncic has an average of 110 DR and 1.2 steals per game for his career. While there is a disparity in career lengths, their defensive stats are fairly similar. You may say that Doncic is 6’8” while Curry is 6’3” so he should be a better defender, but you can also say that Curry is faster and quicker than Luka so he should be a better defender.
The point of this comparison is to show that there are some inconsistencies when it comes to claims about Doncic and his defense. People say he doesn’t give any effort on defense and that Curry, while not a great defender, gives effort, and that makes him better. However, the data says they are about the same defensively.
Great Comparisons
Let’s move past the Curry comparison and move on to another great who was known as a great offensive and defensive player, Michael Jordan. Now, let’s be clear here, Doncic is nowhere near the defender that Jordan was and never will be. Those claims are not being made. This comparison is to see how difficult it is to be a good defender and the number one option on offense at the same time.
Jordan had a DR rating of 103, 3.1 steals, and 1 block per game for his career. Those are fantastic defensive numbers for anybody. However, when Jordan first came into the league he had three years of a defensive rating of 107, 107, and 104. That is the worst three-year stretch of defensive ratings he had ever had in his career. Even worse than his Wizard days. In 1988, however, he would have a defensive rating of 101 and win the DPOY and MVP that year. So what changed? Scottie Pippin was drafted at the start of the 1987-1988 season and Michael got help on the offensive side. Jordan’s usage percentage also dropped by 3% that year and would continue to stay in the 31%-34% for the rest of his career while he racked up MVPs and DPOY contending years.
So what does that all mean? It goes back to the age-old saying “Even the greats needed help”. Jordan was still a great defensive player when he was having to do everything on the court for the Bulls, but he got even better when the entire offensive load was not on his plate and he had other players to help on both sides of the court. Doncic’s worst defensive years with DRs of 110, 111, 113, and 113 were during the years 2019-2021 and 2022-2024. Those are the years before Jalen Brunson blossomed and before him and Kyrie Irving began clicking and he didn’t just run the offense, he was the offense. If he didn’t get 28-30 points a night, they had no chance.
When offensive and defensive help came his way though and his usage percentage went down and other players could take the load off his plate, his defensive got better. Just look at the 2024 playoffs when they got to the NBA Finals. Luka had a defensive field goal percentage of 43.9%. That was better than defensive stars Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, Payton Pritchard, Jaden McDaniels, Bam Adebayo, Luguentz Dort, P.J. Washington, Chet Holmgren, and Jrue Holiday during the playoffs.
Player Comparisons
Now let’s do player comparisons for this season with players who are similar to Doncic. The biggest comparison that stands out to me is to Jrue Holiday. Holiday is considered one of, if not the, best perimeter defender in the NBA. However, his DR this year is 114 and his defensive field goal percentage is 46% compared to Luka’s 108 and 46%. Pretty dang close.
Now, you can easily make the argument that Holiday is always picking up the opposing team’s best players while Luka is not. You would be correct there. Those stats will be skewed a little because Holiday is relied more on his defense than his offense for the Celtics. So, yes, Holiday is a better defender than Luka. That is clear. But what about other players who are similar to Luka in usage percentage and offensive expectations? Here is a list below of those players and their DR and defensive field goal percentage:
Kevin Durant: 115, 38%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 105, 43%
LaMelo Ball – 116, 49%
Giannis Antetokounmpo – 111, 44%
Nikola Jokic – 110, 48%
Jalen Brunson – 119, 47%
Ja Morant 110, 44%
An interesting comparison is that of Gilgeous-Alexander. Doncic and SGA get compared to a lot due to their team’s success, recent playoff matchups, and MVP races. A lot of people say they prefer SGA because he plays defense and doesn’t whine to the refs. First, and this is a whole other article to be written, but yes he does whine to the refs. All players, especially star players, whine to the refs. Some are just more animate like Doncic and lose control too often. Secondly, if you look at Shai’s DR you’ll see a similar trend. From his first season with the Clippers to now he has a DR of 112, 109, 115, 113, 113, 110, 105 (this season) as well as his steals going up sporadically. So what happened for him to make this improvement offensively? Help. Lu Dort developed an outside shot and continued to improve as a defender, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams were drafted, and Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t have to be the entire team. He got help and his defense got better.
A couple of other defensive comparisons for Doncic to other players. Here is a comparison of two players on steal percentages:
Luka Doncic – 30%
Alex Caruso – 32%
Mike Conley – 30% (it should be noted that some statistic websites have Mike Conley as the highest-rated defender, albeit in a smaller sample size.)
Now here are comparisons for defensive wins shared (DWS):
Luka Doncic – .145
Amen Thompson – .146
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Former DPOY) – .146
Lu Dort – .146
Victor Wembanyama (DPOY Favorite) – .125
Fake Stats
Now let’s talk about a stat that has become super popular since the Thunder/Mavericks playoff series: blow-by percentage. What is this stat? Where did it come from? Short answer, it’s fake. There are no official sites or associations that track “blow-by percentage”. Why? It is a loaded stat that has no clear definition. What classifies as a blow-by? If a player gets by a defender, but then the defender recovers and stops him is that a failed defensive assignment because he got by him? If a defender is riding a player’s hip and jumps, but the offensive player makes a tough shot does that count as a blow-by? If a defender closes out hard or lets a player get by him in hopes of doubling them because they struggle to finish or are a bad passer and that increases the likely event of a turnover, is that a blow-by still? The stat, it seems, has only been brought up to use on Luka, and no evidence it has any validity to it.
Some Context
There is some important context for these defensive stats. The reason so many stats are presented is that if you look at one single defensive stat, then you only get a partial picture. Wemby has a lower DWS because his team’s defense is bad and doesn’t help him win as many games as, say, the Mavericks who are ranked 9th. Jrue Holiday has a higher DR than Luka because he defends better players. If you want to get a good view of a player, offensively or defensively, you need a combination of different stats and the eye test.
So What Does It Mean?
So, simply put, Doncic is not a terrible defender. He doesn’t even seem like a bad defender. You could argue, based on stats, that he is an above-average defender in the league. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness or athleticism needed to be a shutdown defender (his offense is all based on balance, breaks, and pace so he doesn’t need them offensively either), but his biggest roadblock as a defender is himself. Doncic doesn’t have a big of a plate on offense anymore. The Mavericks proved that by going 6-1 when he was out with a wrist injury.
Luka needs to stay focused and continue to give great effort on defense and he’ll be fine. He showed how much losing focus can hurt against the Jazz when he was confused and gave up the game-winning dunk. What did he do after that, though? Blamed himself and said he needed to get better. Doncic has shown that he can be a competent, and frustrating, defender for opposing players at times. Just look what he did against the Clippers and Timberwolves in the playoffs last year.
The reason people keep saying he is a terrible defender is because once a criticism is said, it locks on no matter what. People will always say LeBron James isn’t clutch, people will always say Curry can’t win alone, and people will always say Doncic can’t defend. That data doesn’t lie though.
Main Image: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
