Coming off their week 12 bye, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the chance to beat a divisional rival in the Houston Texans. Answering the question of how the Jaguars can beat the Texans in week 13 hinges upon two key phases of the game. The two keys are to get pressure on C.J. Stroud throughout the game, and for the Jaguars offensive line to protect Trevor Lawrence.
How The Jaguars Can Beat The Texans In Jacksonville
For the Jaguars, a matchup against the Texans presents an opportunity to get right coming out of the bye. On both sides of the ball, the trenches will be the deciding factor in who wins. For the Jaguars, the most important of the two trenches comes on the offensive side of the ball.
Key To Victory: Protecting Trevor Lawrence
For the past two weeks, the Jaguars have been without their franchise quarterback. Lawrence is expected to return in week 13 against the Texans according to Doug Pederson. A divisional matchup against the current first-place team in the division is a great opportunity for a team to play spoiler. The Jaguars, despite being all but out of the playoff hunt, could spoil the mood in Houston by beating the Texans. To have the best chance at success, the Jaguars need to be able to protect Lawrence.
This would normally be one of the keys to victory, but there might be no more important game for the offensive line to play well than against the Texans. It’s a simple reason: Lawrence is entering this game with a banged-up shoulder. His injury was something that could’ve been season-ending, but Lawrence fought through the bye week and is ready to go in week 13. Protecting his left shoulder will be paramount not just for the health of Lawrence, but also to the success of the Jaguars’ offense.
With Gabriel Davis and Christian Kirk done for the year with injuries, the Jaguars’ offensive personnel is a lot more lacking than the Jaguars and Texans’ week four matchup. Evan Engram and Brian Thomas Jr. will be the focal points, but Parker Washington and Travis Etienne Jr. will need to see action in the passing game. A strong Texans run defense means the Jaguars will likely throw the ball a ton, but the protection of Lawrence is paramount to the success of the offense.
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter lead a strong front for the Texans, one that is ranked 11th in pass rush grade according to Pro Football Focus. Both Anderson and Hunter have at least ten sacks each, and against a pass-blocking line in Jacksonville that is ranked 22nd in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars will be tested in blocking a dynamic pass-rushing duo. Walker Little and Anton Harrison will have their hands full and might be the most important game for both the Jaguars’ short-term and long-term success.
The most important key to victory for the Jaguars is to protect the quarterback. Lawrence is banged up, and any hits he takes to his left shoulder could knock him out for the game, and potentially the rest of the season. Pass protection is imperative every week in the NFL, and how the Jaguars can beat the Texans in week 13 is reliant upon the protection of the quarterback.
Key To Victory: Pressure Stroud
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars need to generate pressure. It’s always important to do so, but with the Texans surrendering 40 sacks on the year, tied for fourth most, the Jaguars defensive line should be able to get home. The Texans’ offensive line ranks just behind the Jaguars line according to Pro Football Focus. But, there is one key difference in the two matchups: the Jaguars’ pass rush grade is the 23rd ranked pass rushing unit according to PFF.
Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen are the leaders for Jacksonville up front, but their sack production hasn’t been nearly as impressive as the Texans duo. Hines-Allen has only six sacks, while Walker has seven. The two are more than capable of wreaking havoc along the line, but they have yet to completely take over a game in 2024. While they haven’t been finishing their pressures with sacks, the pressures have been present in every game. In their last matchup, the duo combined for nine pressures on Stroud, hitting him three times.
But, just getting pressures won’t be enough to slow down the Texans’ offense. Nico Collins and Tank Dell lead the Texans receivers, with Stefon Diggs out for the season. Collins emerged as a superstar in 2024, and one of the games where he began his breakout campaign was a 151-yard, one-touchdown performance in week four against this Jaguars secondary. The key difference will be the Jaguars getting Tyson Campbell back for this bout, as he was injured the last time these teams faced off in Houston.
For the Jaguars’ defensive front, getting pressure will be imperative to limiting the Texans’ passing game. Winning in the trenches, and stopping Joe Mixon from running all over the Jaguars is a major focal point, but if Stroud has time to throw the Jaguars will have no hopes of stopping the Texans’ offense. The offensive line in Houston has constantly been changing, with players being shifted all around to figure out the best fit. The line has yet to solidify itself, and the Jaguars have a chance to change the game and play spoiler if Walker and Hines-Allen can get to Stroud.
Final Outlook on the Jaguars Chances Against the Texans
It’s no secret, as the reporting has been consistent since the Jaguars loss in week eleven: Pederson is on the hot seat in Jacksonville. The belief was that his team getting embarrassed in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions week 11 game would be the final straw, but he remained through the team’s bye week. It seems likely that he will stay around for the end of the year, and changes will be made in the offseason, despite the fans clamoring for changes now. Whether it’s the right decision or not is open to interpretation, but the Jaguars are barely hanging on to any chance for the playoffs thanks to the Texans struggling to pull away in the division.
While a long shot, the Jaguars’ chances of beating the Texans are a lot more feasible if Lawrence suits up. Mac Jones has struggled in his few starts, and the offense was beginning to get into a grove before the Philadelphia Eagles game where Lawrence ultimately got banged up. Taking the offense to another level is something Lawrence can do, even with multiple starting wide receivers out to injuries. Protecting him during the game is the key to the Jaguars’ success, and the only way for the Jaguars to beat the Texans.
For the Jaguars, the season is already over. Playing Lawrence is already a controversial decision, as opposed to getting the necessary surgery early to prepare him for 2025. But, Lawrence and the team want to compete. The Jaguars need to protect Lawrence and get pressure on Stroud. As long as the Jaguars fronts can do both, their chances of victory are a lot higher than many would give them credit for. At worst, if it’s just one last week to play spoiler against their division rival, the Jaguars can put together one last hurrah for the Pederson era.
Main Image: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
