March Madness is just around the corner, and no matter your level of college basketball expertise, everyone wants to pick a better bracket than their family, friends, and coworkers. Yet, constructing even a semi-accurate bracket is nearly impossible. So how do you gain an edge in your bracket groups? Usually, the better team prevails, but with upsets bound to happen, you should consider these four factors when evaluating matchups.
Use these Tips to Crush Your Bracket Groups
Recent Performance
Like many sports, the NCAA basketball season is a marathon. The four-month regular season runs from early November to early March, followed by conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament. Some teams improve as the season progresses, while others fizzle out. Most teams deal with injuries, but the timing and extent of each injury are different; some are season-ending, while other teams are just getting healthy now. Regardless, every team is different now than it was in November.
Although it makes sense to analyze a team’s entire season to predict their future success, we should heavily favor their recent performances. Teams that finish the regular season with strong wins or make a run in their conference tournament often continue their hot streaks in March Madness. Likewise, inconsistent teams in March usually experience that same inconsistency in the tournament and do not deserve our faith. When it comes to picking your bracket, recency bias tends to help.
Rest
Another underrated factor to consider is rest. Simply put, tired players tend to play worse than energized players. The more well-rested team does not automatically win, but so many upsets happen when top teams are exhausted. For example, a team from a major conference may make a deep run in their conference tournament, which leaves them with only four days of rest before the round of 64.
On the other hand, a mid-major team may have wrapped up their conference tournament 10 days before the first round and can use that time to rest and iron out any kinks in practice. When evaluating how well-rested a team is, also consider the team’s depth, as teams with deeper benches naturally keep their players fresh even if they play a bunch of games. Again, most of the time, the stronger team prevails, but make sure to factor in how beat up a team is when entering the tournament.
Experience
Talent is important, but so is experience. For most of these players, March Madness represents the biggest stage and brightest lights of their basketball careers. With all this pressure, experience is a premium that every team needs, especially from their guards. In a close game, you want an experienced guard who can handle the ball and make sure your team continues to get quality shots on offense.
It sounds simple, but inexperienced teams that are heavy favorites are susceptible to panicking when down a couple of baskets in the second half. Far too often, fans see their teams crumble and play a completely different style once the pressure mounts. When filling out your bracket, make sure to think about teams that have played on the biggest stage before.
Location
Sometimes a game is simply so difficult to choose that it feels like a toss-up. When you run into these matchups, sometimes the deciding factor is whether one of the schools is close to the location of the game. Every game is played at a neutral site, but location can make a neutral site feel like a home or away game. Some teams travel across the country for a game, while other teams play right in their backyard, allowing their passionate fans to pack the arena. Since so many of these games come down to the slightest of margins, any sense of home-court advantage can prove pivotal.
Don’t Sweat it
At the end of the day, filling out a March Madness bracket is a crapshoot. Choosing teams based on who has performed better throughout the season is the logical way to fill out your bracket, but the tournament is also full of unpredictable upsets that make you want to tear up your bracket to pieces. Anything can happen, but you may just gain a slight advantage over your competition if you use these four tips.
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