As the playoff picture is coming into focus for the remainder of the fantasy year, it’s a good time to reflect on what we might have done differently. The fate of a fantasy manager’s entire season can often be won or lost in the early weeks following the draft. By now, fantasy managers who chose to auto-draft might be celebrating or questioning the wisdom of that choice.
Fantasy 101- How’s That Auto-Draft Working For You?
To Draft or Auto-Draft?
Auto-drafting can be a great option for beginning players or experienced fantasy managers who simply don’t have the time to invest in research and preparing for a draft. But it can also leave you vulnerable and at the mercy of the fantasy site’s algorithm that relies solely on an individual’s pre-draft ranking and the average draft position (ADP.)
Chosen by the auto-draft, players selected in the first and second rounds of the draft are the foundation of your team. Except for their team’s bye, these individuals would be in your lineup every week.
While the auto-draft feature guarantees that a manager will get the best available player based on the algorithm, the numbers don’t always translate as planned. For example, an algorithm doesn’t account for season-ending injuries (Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy), mid-season trades, or a non-performing offense.
Why Relying Solely On The Auto-Draft Can Be A Disaster
This year, perhaps more than any other year in recent memory, relying on an auto-draft could have torpedoed your fantasy team and sunk it before the mid-point in the season. The algorithm has overestimated some players, underestimated others, and completely misfired on certain athletes. Check out an analysis of how the top 28 players ranked in the ESPN fantasy algorithm have performed thus far in the 2024 season.
The undisputed number one player drafted this year would have been Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers (who would have celebrated their good fortune at the time of the draft), McCaffrey was injured before the first game. He was out of the 49er’s lineup for the entire first half of the season. To use a baseball analogy this would have translated to a monumental swing and a miss for those relying on auto-draft.
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is another player who would have been selected early in the draft. Pacheco was injured in mid-September and spent the rest of his time on injured reserve, Pacheco’s year-to-date points are 31.9.
Houston Texans’ talented wide receiver Nico Collins is another example of a player who missed significant playing time during the season and whose fantasy managers fell victim to the dreaded injury curse. Before his injury, Collins was leading the NFL with his productivity. During the first five games, Collins achieved 567 yards on 32 of 45 receptions with three touchdowns. His managers rejoiced over the 106.7 points he brought in for those few games.
When The Auto-Draft Is Correct
The number two selected player Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has enjoyed a healthy and productive season for his managers with 190 fantasy points on 155 carries for 748 yards, six touchdowns, and another receiving touchdown from 41 of 46 targets for 331 yards. Score one for the auto-drafters.
The number three ranked player New York Jets running back Breece Hall has been limited by the lackluster play of his team’s aging veteran quarterback and a dismal offense. Nonetheless, Hall has appeared in all ten games and produced three rushing touchdowns on 554 yards from 136 carries plus a fourth receiving touchdown on 39 receptions for 358 yards. This translates to 152.2 points or 15.2 points per game for his managers.
Similarly, the number 13 overall pick of the draft, New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson overcame the limitations of a poor offense and his team’s lost season to provide his fantasy managers a decent return on their investment with 166 points.
When The Algorithm Gets It Wrong
Conversely, the following first-round draft candidates have proven to be disastrous selections. Fantasy managers with the 12th overall pick in their draft would have been delighted to get LA Rams superstar wide receiver, Puka Nacua. Sadly, after scoring 8.2 fantasy points in the first game of the season, Nacua was injured. Despite missing the next 6 games, Nacua returned strong in week 8, only to find himself ejected the following week for throwing a punch after posting only 2.1 points. To date, Nacua has scored a total of 47.2 points.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver, Chris Olave played in eight games before ending his season with another severe concussion. Viewed as a top receiving option for the Saints, Olave was ranked number 18 overall but in eight games, he was 32 of 44 for 400 yards with one touchdown. Bringing in only 76.7 points for his fantasy managers, ESPN was off by a mile on this projection. Michael Pittman Jr. is another example of this. As a wide receiver on a team with a struggling offense and a quarterback controversy, Pittman can be forgiven for not being up to projected standards. However, he still underperformed with his top 20 placement. Throughout nine games, Pittman has earned 78.6 points based on 30 receptions for 366 yards and two touchdowns.
When The Algorithm Is Wrong But It’s An Advantage For Their Fantasy Manager
Sometimes the algorithms get it wrong by severely undervaluing a player and fantasy managers feast on the unexpected banquet. Derrick Henry and Saquan Barkley are two players who benefitted from mid-season trades to winning teams and saw their draft capital skyrocket. Candidates for both league MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, Henry ranked number 24 overall, and Barkley (number 10) are thrilling their fantasy managers each week with fantasy point totals that equal unimaginable riches.
Enjoying a brilliant season paired with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, Henry is seeing some of the best numbers of his career. To date, he has 1,120 yards on 184 carries with 12 touchdowns. Barkley is enjoying a career resurgence with the Philadelphia Eagles and has 1,137 on 197 carries with eight touchdowns. Hopefully, the sensational seasons continue for both of these outstanding players and their fantasy managers can bask in a championship title.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
