As we close in on the midway point of the season, the teams with the best chances to win the Super Bowl are becoming clearer. I’m going to take a look at the five teams that could win the big game who AREN’T in the top 10 highest Vegas odds entering Week 9. According to ESPN, the ten favorites are San Francisco, Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Seattle, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati, Denver, and Detroit. According to Sports Illustrated, around 60-70% of Super Bowl winners have ranked in the top 10 heading into Week 9.
The NFL is one of the most fickle sports leagues we have and is known for its unpredictability. Of course, the age-old saying “Any given Sunday” directly describes that unpredictability on a week-to-week basis. Any team that makes the playoffs obviously has a chance at it, but getting the bye and home-field advantage is insanely important to your chances. Over 70% of Super Bowl champions are one or two seeds, and only about eight percent of champions were a five seed or lower.
A couple of the teams I’m going to highlight in this article have legitimate shots at home-field advantage and possibly even a bye week, despite not being in the top 10 of Super Bowl favorites. Read along to see who could upset the odds and become unlikely Super Bowl Champions.
Five Dark-Horse Super Bowl Contenders
1. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots have the strongest case of any of the teams on this list to get to the Super Bowl. They’re the reigning AFC Champions and arguably have a better team than they did last year. Their biggest problem? Injuries.
Besides the 49ers, no one else has dealt with more injuries to the starting 22 than the Patriots. The Patriots had a rough start to the season, but have turned it around with multiple strong offensive performances in a row. As the season continues, their schedule gets harder, but they should keep getting key offensive players back. Drake Maye has been elite without A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins, TreVeyon Henderson, and multiple offensive linemen.
If those guys can come back healthy by the playoffs, watch out. The Patriots also have the most playoff experience of any team on this list after their Super Bowl run in 2025 and have the disciplined leadership of Head Coach Mike Vrabel. They also still have a realistic shot at the AFC East title. The Bills have some tough games coming up, including a tough matchup with New England, who beat them 29-26 back in Week 4.
A home playoff game would make all the difference for New England’s Super Bowl chances. Now it won’t be an easy road; the Patriots have the seventh hardest strength of schedule remaining and play six potential playoff teams in their last nine games. If everything goes well, the Patriots could be playing at home in January, or they could realistically miss the playoffs. That’s the risk you take with any of these teams.
2. Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings were the last undefeated team remaining heading into Week 8, but came up just short of extending their winning streak to seven games. It’s crazy they’re outside of the top 10 Super Bowl favorites as the literal ONE SEED in the NFC. The problem for Minnesota lies with their offense, which has been a bottom-five unit in the NFL despite their 6-1 record. They rank 27th in the NFL with just 20 points per game, but are allowing just 13.3 points per game on defense.
I don’t think you can give Coach of the Year honors to an assistant, but Brian Flores deserves to be an exception for what he’s done with this defense. This is a championship-caliber defense, but the question remains: can the offense take the step needed for a Super Bowl run? They held the Lions, the number 1 offense in the NFL, to just 19 points, but only scored 15 of their own. On paper, the Minnesota offense should be better than it’s been playing.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are one of the best receiver tandems in the NFL, but have been let down by poor quarterback play from Kyler Murray. I do think Kevin O’Connell could get this offense playing at a better clip by the playoffs, but if not, I respect Vegas’s ranking. They don’t need to be spectacular, but even ranking in the middle of the pack in points per game would make them a Super Bowl favorite. The Vikings have a brutal schedule to close out the year, the second hardest, but their strong start should be enough to propel them into the playoffs and potentially even the one seed.
3. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have shown enough offensive potential to be considered a dangerous team in the NFL. Through the first six weeks, they were one of the worst running teams in the NFL, but for now they have Josh Jacobs back, which gives their whole offense a big boost. The running game doesn’t have to be great for the Packers to put up points with the pass-catching combination of Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft. Matt LaFleur is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL and will keep Green Bay in the running even if their run game doesn’t take its next step.
The Packers have sat right around 10th in the league in multiple defensive rankings and should be getting star pass rusher Micah Parsons back by week 11. Parsons could have a huge impact on the Packers’ postseason chances. They’re 1-2 in division play and are definitely on the outside looking in a bit, in my opinion. Their chances are still squarely in their hands if they can win out in divisional play, but they also sit with the sixth hardest remaining schedule and a brutal run of games still to go. The path is still open to winning the division, but they’re going to need some help to get there.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have a great shot at the one seed in the AFC, but will need to play to their full potential to get it. Along with Denver and Jacksonville, they’re one of three teams in the AFC with six wins. Their two losses to the Patriots and Bills definitely hurt their chances, but don’t define them. The biggest advantage they have over those two? Strength of schedule.
The Steelers have the 23rd-ranked schedule remaining, with their two hardest games coming vs. the Broncos and Jaguars. Now, if you were following along, you would notice Denver is ranked above them in the standings, and Jacksonville is right there at five wins. I see a legitimate chance where the Steelers could win out if they play their cards right or at least get to 12-13 wins. I mentioned earlier how important home-field advantage was to your Super Bowl chances.
The AFC North is going to come down to the Bengals or the Steelers, who could both be near the top of conference standings. Pittsburgh’s offense has some work to do in the passing game, but has also enjoyed one of the best run games in the NFL. Their defense is arguably a top five unit and plays at a high level of physicality. They also have legitimate championship and playoff experience with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy.
The Steelers play old-school football and are more than willing to punch anyone in the mouth. They’ve won four straight, and their path just became a lot easier with Lamar Jackson’s injury and two games against Baltimore left on their schedule.
5. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are the most difficult sell on this list, and has the worst odds of any of these teams for a reason. The Texans are 2-5 and are definitely on the outside looking in. In the seven-team format, 11 wins almost guarantees you a spot, 10 wins is a strong chance, and some nine-win teams have also snuck in. Looking at their schedule, there are seven games I’d give to them and three that feel like toss-ups.
Their games vs. the Steelers, Texans, and Packers could make or break their season. At this point, they need to be nearly flawless if they’re going to sneak into the playoffs. If they win all seven of the easier games and even just one of the toss-ups, that’s the 11 wins they need. The Houston offense has been good this year, and it’s really been their defense that’s been the letdown. This is weird because not a lot has changed from last year’s top-ranked unit, but they’re instead the 28th-ranked pass defense and the 19th-ranked overall defense.
If DeMeco Ryans can figure out how to turn those numbers towards the positive side, Houston would all of a sudden be a dangerous, well-balanced team. They have the 31st-ranked strength of schedule for a reason, and could have a very easy path towards the playoffs where anything can happen.
The Last Word
All five of these teams need some things to go right if they’re going to make a Super Bowl run, but all have a legitimate shot at it. It’s crazy to me that some of these teams are outside of the top 10 favorites, but also have an outside shot at the top seed in their conference. In a perfect world, we could see both conferences won by a team on this list.
The Vikings and Patriots are my two favorites to prove the statistics wrong and potentially be the team that makes it all the way to the big game. My pick? The Patriots. Thank you for reading. Leave a comment if you think one of these teams has what it takes.
Main Image: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
