It is Week 7 of the NFL season, and at least one underdog has won outright every single week. Last week, we saw massive upsets, including the Arizona Cardinals beating the Los Angeles Rams as a double-digit underdog. The upset loss dropped the preseason Super Bowl favorites to a 2-4 record. Six underdogs won outright last week, including the Tennessee Titans, who got their first win of the season.
The Cardinals have pulled off the season’s two biggest upsets, beating both the Los Angeles Chargers and Rams with the season’s biggest underdog spreads. With this trend continuing, Week 7 offers plenty of opportunities for teams to pull off an upset. Only one team enters this week as a double-digit underdog, while most games feature spreads of 6.5 points or fewer. That suggests many underdogs have a realistic chance to pull off an upset.
Here are the five NFL teams most likely to pull off an upset as underdogs in Week 7.
Week 7 Underdogs Most Likely to Pull Off an Upset
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Despite being one of the NFL’s three remaining unbeaten teams, the Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 7 as 2.5-point underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the Seahawks’ home-field advantage, I’m surprised they’re favored given how both teams have played this season. As a result, I’m backing the Chiefs as my favorite underdog to pull off an upset in Week 7.
The Chiefs enter this game as one of the NFL’s best teams, with a 5-0 record and the league’s second-best point differential. Patrick Mahomes has played exceptionally well since returning from a torn ACL and LCL injury last season, throwing for 1,309 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for one. Kansas City enters this game with the most yards per game (414) and the second-most rushing yards per game (159.8). The team is also tied for the third-best turnover differential in the league with five.
However, acquiring Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency has transformed this offense into one of the league’s best. Since joining the Chiefs, Walker III has been the team’s best player, rushing for 665 yards on 106 carries, scoring eight touchdowns, and posting the league’s best yards per rush (6.3). Now, it will be a revenge game for him as he faces his former team, hoping to keep his team unbeaten while handing the Seahawks a loss that will put them below .500.
As for Seattle, they have been skidding lately, losing three of their last four games since Sam Darnold‘s return. The Seahawks have struggled to protect the ball, committing 11 turnovers after only one in the first two weeks. Despite getting hurt in the season opener, Darnold is tied for the season’s most interceptions with seven; the team’s running game has struggled since Walker III’s departure; and the defense has allowed 26.25 points per game over the last four weeks.
Seattle’s home-field and rest advantage likely outweigh its recent struggles. However, Mahomes is one of the best players when his team is an underdog, going 12-5 in 17 career underdog games. It’s hard to beat Mahomes as an underdog, and given the Seahawks’ recent struggles, I expect the Chiefs to pull off an upset and remain undefeated.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Baltimore Ravens this week after their bye week. Despite the rest advantage and uncertainty at Baltimore’s quarterback position, the Bengals enter as a 2.5-point underdog. It remains to be seen whether Lamar Jackson will return for the Ravens, and this line could change if he’s inactive, so the Bengals may not be underdogs come Sunday. However, the Bengals should still be a popular underdog this week, regardless of who is at quarterback in Baltimore.
Cincinnati has shown signs of improvement as it heads into this game, with health on its side and its defense at its best in years. Joe Burrow has been effective for the Bengals, throwing 11 touchdowns on 1,361 yards and posting the seventh-best quarterback rating in the league (73.6). Ja’Marr Chase has scored four touchdowns, Tee Higgins leads the team with 423 receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki has been a dangerous weapon offensively, also scoring four touchdowns. On defense, they have forced eight takeaways this season and held opponents to 21.8 points per game.
Baltimore is coming off an upset loss to the Cleveland Browns, scoring only 10 points. Although Tyler Huntley has done a great job filling in for Jackson, he struggled against the Browns, completing 19 of 31 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown. His struggles could continue against a Cincinnati defense that has forced a turnover in three of its five games this season. Even if Jackson returns, the team has two weeks to prepare for whoever Baltimore puts under center.
This game will come down to who can execute best on offense, as both defenses have played well this season. However, Baltimore’s extra preparation and quarterback uncertainty give the Bengals a huge advantage. Divisional matchups are always hard to predict, and Cincinnati has already shown it can beat Baltimore as an underdog, upsetting the Ravens on Thanksgiving last season. However, with a well-balanced Bengals team on both sides of the ball, I expect them to pull off the upset regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Ravens.
3. New England Patriots
Week 7 opens on Thursday night with a big showdown between the AFC Champions, the New England Patriots, and one of the best teams in the NFC, the Chicago Bears. The Patriots travel to Soldier Field as 3.5-point underdogs, but despite being on the road, they have a chance to pull off an upset as they enter this game with strong momentum.
The Patriots got off to a disappointing 1-2 start this season, with quarterback Drake Maye struggling, throwing six interceptions and only one touchdown. However, the team has turned a corner since that rough stretch, winning three consecutive games, including the first loss for the Buffalo Bills. Maye has returned to the form that led his team to the Super Bowl last season, throwing 10 touchdowns, rushing one, and throwing only one interception. The offense has averaged 33.3 points per game during its three-game win streak, while the defense has held opponents to 20.7 points and forced four turnovers during this stretch.
As for the Bears, they got their starting quarterback, Caleb Williams, back last week after missing the past four games with a hamstring injury. He looked exceptional on his return, completing his first 12 passes of the game before finishing with 305 yards and a touchdown, completing 30 of 36 passes. Despite the win over the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago struggled late and nearly blew a 31-7 lead. The Falcons scored 16 unanswered points, cutting the lead to eight. In the end, the defense came up clutch, forcing a game-winning fumble recovery, but the Bears shouldn’t have let the Falcons mount a comeback in a game they dominated.
This should be a great game, as both teams are coming off big wins last week and have momentum. However, the Patriots’ three-game winning streak isn’t a fluke, and the team looks consistent. They are playing great on both sides of the ball, and the Bears are still adjusting to life with Williams back after four weeks without him. With New England playing its best football of the season and Chicago showing some late-game vulnerability, this looks like an ideal opportunity for the Patriots to pull off an upset and extend their winning streak to four games.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers head on the road to take on the Detroit Lions, who are coming off their bye week, in a big divisional showdown. The Packers enter as a three-point underdog, but with their recent momentum and the Lions’ defensive struggles, Green Bay has a strong chance to pull off a big divisional upset.
Like the Patriots, the Packers got off to a slow 1-2 start, struggling with the run game and offensive line. However, they have looked much better the past three weeks, going on a three-game winning streak despite a tough Week 5 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since Week 6, the team has looked like one of the league’s best, dominating the Bears and the Dallas Cowboys in their last two games. The offense has averaged 23.7 points during this winning streak, while the defense has allowed 11.3.
Quarterback Jordan Love is playing some of his best football, throwing 11 touchdowns for 1,684 yards despite having four interceptions. With the running game the worst in the NFL, wide receivers Matthew Golden and Christian Watson are stepping up, combining for 1,039 yards and nine touchdowns. Their elite passing game will be key to beating the Lions, who have one of the league’s worst secondaries.
Despite coming off a bye week, the Lions have been unimpressive in the first five weeks. Their defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 404.4 yards per game, the most in the NFL, and 29.6 points, tied for second-worst. One of the biggest reasons they have been able to offset their defensive struggles is their high-powered offense, tied for the most points scored per game at 32.8.
However, the Lions may not have enough on offense to overcome their defensive struggles, as they’ve beaten only one team by more than seven points. The Packers have momentum, and their offense should dominate a weak Lions secondary that has allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game. Despite being the road team and the rest of the disadvantage, it’s hard to see the Lions avoiding an upset against the Packers.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons will take on the undefeated San Francisco 49ers as a three-point underdog. Even though the 49ers enter this game unbeaten and the Falcons are on a two-game losing streak, this is a trap game on the road for the 49ers. The Falcons should be considered a sneaky underdog to pull off the upset this week.
Despite losing their last two games, the Falcons have looked much better offensively since Michael Penix Jr.‘s return in Week 3. They have averaged 31.5 points since Week 3 and got impressive road wins over the Packers and New Orleans Saints. Bijan Robinson has been one of the league’s best running backs, rushing for 641 yards on 111 carries and scoring four touchdowns. Drake London has played better since Penix Jr.’s return, averaging 117.5 yards per game. The offense should be a problem for the injury-riddled 49ers defense.
The 49ers may be one of the league’s best teams right now, as the only 6-0 team. However, injuries keep piling up, and they have now lost their best wide receiver, Mike Evans, to an Achilles injury. After Evans left late in the first half with an injury, the 49ers struggled to generate offense in their win over the Washington Commanders, scoring only 10 points on 79 yards. Now, the 49ers have only George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey as playmakers, with no real wide receiver threat.
The Falcons defense has played well despite giving up 61 points in back-to-back games, forcing a turnover in their last four games. With the 49ers wide receiver room decimated, the defense could give the 49ers offense serious problems if no one outside of Kittle or McCaffrey steps up. If the Falcons can play up to their offensive standards without committing critical turnovers, they have a strong shot at giving the 49ers their first loss of the season.
Main Image: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
