Baseball season begins this week, and according to Fanduel’s season win total betting odds, the market expects the San Diego Padres to take a step back this season and not hit over their win total.
Currently, the team out west has a win total of 83.5, which is a slight decrease from last year’s number of 85.5. After the disappointing early postseason exit and the changes in the offseason, you could argue both sides, but the Friars will hit over their win total again in back-to-back years.
Last season, the Padres were eliminated in three games in the NL Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs after the bats went ice cold for most of the three games. Now they head in with a new manager after Mike Shildt retired after two seasons, claiming mental and physical burnout during his tenure. Craig Stammen takes over the reins, with most looking at it as a friendly hire by General Manager AJ Preller.
While there are a lot of unknowns for this team, one thing is certain: this is one of the most talented rosters in all of baseball, and it will be good enough to hit the over mark again.
2026 San Diego Padres O/U Win Total Analysis: Betting the Over
The Roster is Talented Enough to go Over
We shouldn’t be surprised that the Padres had a quiet offseason, as they finished just three games behind the back-to-back World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego made the postseason for the fourth time in the last six seasons in 2025, and they should make it five for seven after this year.
San Diego lost a couple of key players, such as starting pitcher Dylan Cease and infielder Luis Arraez, and they have already ruled out pitcher Yu Darvish for the entire season. However, they will be getting back a key pitcher in Joe Musgrove, whom they expect to be available by mid-April and will need to have a stellar season to get this team to the postseason.
Hitting
Hitting-wise, the Friars have a star-studded offense led by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill. You know what you’re getting from those three key players, but the rest of the production will be relied upon: Ramón Laureano, Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth. If some of these four role guys can exceed expectations, the Padres will be able to hit the over 83.5 wins.
Catcher Freddy Fermin has finally solidified the position behind home plate, and newly signed Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) player Sung-Mun Song is expected to produce at second base immediately. The argument can be made that the team doesn’t have much depth once you get past the starters, but I expect Preller to make moves to help solidify the NL West franchise.
This may be the last real push for a title this year for the Friars, as the projected Opening Day lineup has six players older than 30, including an additional four in the rotation. It’s now or never for the San Diego franchise.
Look for Merrill and Tatis to lead the team and Machado to provide veteran leadership in the clubhouse when necessary.
Pitching
Yes, the starting pitching rotation doesn’t jump off the page for San Diego, but this is a team that has shown they can make the most out of players on one-year deals.
The expected pitching rotation will include Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Walker Buehler, and Germán Márquez. Musgrove, currently not on the active roster, is expected to return in April; until then, the team will rely on Vásquez, Buehler, and Márquez. Buehler and Márquez, who joined the team on one-year deals in the offseason, add experience as the club looks for depth. JP Sears and Matt Waldron are additional options competing for spots, providing further flexibility as roster changes occur.
The key this season will be allowing the team to get to their bullpen, which is the biggest strength, to say the least. It’s led by flamethrowing closer Mason Miller, setup man Jason Adam, who is returning from a quad injury sustained last season. As well as relievers Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta, and Jeremiah Estrada, who will take over for Adam before he returns. The bullpen should expect to be in the top five overall once again this season.
Expectations will be high in Stammen’s first year as manager. This is a make-or-break season for the San Diego franchise, and it will be up to the new manager to get as much as he can out of this roster. This could come as a shock to some, but if the team falls short this year, they could be willing to sell key pieces to build back a depleted farm system after the major trades over the past few seasons.
However, I expect Stammen to get the most out of this team and the Padres to make one final postseason push.
Prediction: Over 83.5 wins and make the postseason
Main Image: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
