The Minnesota Twins are coming off a brutal 2025 season, finishing 70-92. The Twins are projected to be around the 72.5 win mark according to FanDuel, but it could be much worse this season if injuries happen like they always do. However, with the American League Central feeling like it will be open for anybody to win it, the Twins could be better than the oddsmakers think. They could also hit the over on wins and still have a underwhelming season.
With that said, here’s why the Twins will hit their over but still be underwhelming.
2026 Minnesota Twins O/U: Why the Twins will hit the OVER?
Offensive roster should be okay
It’s hard to believe that a roster that had Carlos Correa, Ty France, Harrison Bader, Byron Buxton, etc. finished in the bottom third of the entire league in runs. Now all of them minus Byron Buxton are not on the roster. So you may ask, why would the offense be okay? Well, you keep Buxton on the roster, plus add Josh Bell, who has had an above average OPS+ every season since 2020. The Twins also have rookie Luke Keaschall, who had a nice debut last season, batting .360 in a small sample size.
The main thing is, can this team stay healthy? The Twins have a bad history with injuries, especially with potentially high profile players like Buxton and even Royce Lewis. That will be key once again for Minnesota. If they stay healthy, the Twins offense should be okay and keep them afloat.
Pitching should be interesting
It was expected that the Twins would trade starting pitcher Joe Ryan this offseason and the Twins managed to keep him in the rotation. That will keep the starting rotation decent, however, it is expected that Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez will most likely be out for the entirety of the 2026 season. The rotation will include Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. They should be serviceable in 2026 and will be much better when Lopez returns.
What should be worrying is the bullpen. The Twins traded their best reliever in Jhoan Duran over the offseason in a trade to acquire Abel from the Phillies. The only veteran in the bullpen is Taylor Rogers. Outside of Rogers, there is a lot of lack of experience and could be a long season ahead if it goes bad. There is a lack of a true closer in the bullpen and it will require for one of the arms to step up into that position.
How will the 2026 season go for the Twins?
This season could go a number of ways for Minnesota. The over on wins is achievable for this Twins team, even with pitching concerns. However, it could go poorly and the Twins could look to sell players like Ryan and Buxton around the trade deadline. However, with new ownership, the Twins could look to rebuild its roster this summer.
The Twins should get over 72 wins this season and that slots them around fourth place in the AL Central, soley depending on how the Chicago White Sox perform in the 2026 season.
Main Image: © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
