Last year, behind a rather awful pitching staff, the Baltimore Orioles collapsed after being a contender for a couple of seasons. However, in 2025, that doesn’t mean the O’s didn’t show some real potential, especially behind some really young talent. Last year, a few things went wrong, including underperformances and injuries, and of course a horrible pitching staff.
Orioles O/U Projection Will Hit the OVER in 2026
Underperformances and Losses of Key Players Led to a Bad 2025 Season
The Orioles lost Anthony Santander and Corbin Burnes after 2024. Santander didn’t do anything and still won’t do anything for the Toronto Blue Jays, but he did hit 44 homers that the O’s couldn’t replace in 2025. Burnes provided the staff with a Cy Young caliber arm that they also couldn’t replace in 2024. Multiple players, including Gunnar Henderson, Tyler O’Neil, Colton Cowser, and Adley Rutschman couldn’t provide very good offense at all.
Henderson hit just 17 homers after hitting 37 the year prior. O’Neil was downright awful after he hit 31 home runs in limited action in 2024 for the Boston Red Sox. Cowser went from being a near rookie of the year to hitting .196 with 16 home runs. Finally, Rutschman, who was once seen as the future of the O’s along with some others was awful nothing short of atrocious in 2025. However, even with all of this, the Orioles are set to change in 2026, because their offseason and remaining core.
The Orioles Offseason Improves Both Their Lineup and Rotation
For the lineup, in addition to having already Henderson, the Orioles also have youngsters Samuel Basallo and Jackson Holiday, two mega prospects. The Orioles didn’t stop with their core however, they also added both Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso. Ward had a career year in 2025, hitting 36 homers with 103 RBI’s with the Los Angeles Angels before being traded. He did have an .228 average, but that doesn’t matter when you can provide such offense. In free agency, the O’s picked up power with the addition of Alonso. Alonso hit 38 homers with 126 RBI’s in 2025.
On average, Alonso can provide 162 games, over 40 home runs, and of course a ton of RBI’s. If the O’s can get players like O’Neil, Cowser, and Henderson to be better, then this lineup is the best in baseball. As for the rotation, the Orioles will have this:
Trevor Rogers, LHP
Kyle Bradish, RHP
Shane Baz, RHP
Chris Bassitt, RHP
Zach Eflin, RHP
To be rather honest, this rotation other than the top two pitchers can be really bad. However, all pitchers have starting experience and have been good or decent over the last few seasons. The O’s will need this to come together, but it doesn’t look too bad at all. Not to mention, for the Orioles to win the AL East, they don’t need the best rotation, they just need one that is decent with the offense they have.
Why the Orioles Can Win Over 85.5 Games Next Season
With all that being said, it is pretty clear that the Orioles can win over 85 games next season. Their main obstacle? The AL East itself. The Red Sox got better. The Blue Jays remain scary. The New York Yankees remain scary as well, even after a quit offseason. Even the Tampa Bay Rays aren’t exactly an 100-loss team. In other words, the Orioles will have to fight, and fight hard to win this division or just make the AL Wild Card.
However, with the offseason additions and the remaining young core, this seems like it is a very realistic thing to do for the O’s. Overall, the O’s will need to get better performances from both pitchers and hitters, not to mention, the team’s bullpen must perform better as well. Nonetheless, with such young talent and an offseason that feels like a W for Baltimore, the Orioles look like a team that will win more than 85 games.
Main Image: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
