The Kansas City Royals built up themselves a tough expectation to follow through with going into the 2025 season. After making a run to the American League (AL) Divisional Series, losing to the New York Yankees, the Royals had the expectation to make the playoffs back-to-back seasons. The AL Central was a very competitive division between the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Royals and the Minnesota Twins at times. However, after a late season surge by the Guardians, the Royals missed the playoffs and just fell short of their O/U number of 82.5, finishing with a 82-80 record.
Now looking at the 2026 season, Kansas City will be looking to find some of the same magic it had in 2024 and make the playoffs despite a very competitive division once again. The line is set at 82.5 wins once again according to FanDuel, which the Royals will have to eclipse if they want to make it back to the playoffs. With all that said, here is why Kansas City will hit the over for the 2026 season.
2026 Kansas City Royals O/U: Why the Royals will hit the OVER
Outfield improved?
The Royals hitting was overall pretty decent in 2025, over the league average as a team, hitting .247 on the year. However, its a bit skewed when you have a solid performance by superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and breakout third baseman Maikel Garcia. One of the downfalls for Kansas City in 2025 was the lack of good hitting by the outfielders. Centerfielder Kyle Isbel was the best of the bunch, batting .255 through 409 plate appearances. The next closest was left fielder Drew Waters, who batted .243.
The outfield needed some work and the Royals made a couple moves during the offseason. Outfielders Lane Thomas and Starling Marte were signed, while the Royals traded for Isaac Collins from the Milwaukee Brewers. That adds some decent hitting alongside Isbel and young outfielder Jac Caglianone, who had a less than ideal start to his major league career last season.
So, you got your three starters with Caglianone, Isbel and Collins. With the hope that Caglianone is figuring it out at the plate, while Thomas and Collins keep doing what they have done in the past, the Royals outfielders should be much better on the offensive end this season.
Can pitching continue to be a major strength?
Kansas City’s pitching rotation has been one of its strong suits the past two seasons. Strong top three starters and with a well rounded bullpen has certainly helped. The Royals ace, Cole Ragans, will be back from injury that sidelined him for most of the 2025 season. Kris Bubic is now back in the starting rotation and should be a strong second arm followed by a mix of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron. Cameron bursted out on the seam last season. He finished the season with a 9-7 win/loss record, posting a 2.99 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 138.3 innings. The starting rotation should be strong throughout 1-5, giving teams possibly a tough go.
Bullpen reliably rounds out the pitching staff for this Royals team. It’s led by closer Carlos Estévez, who is coming off an All-Star campaign in 2025. Estévez finshed the season tying his career best with a 2.45 ERA. Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber are solid for Kansas City. The Royals also added relief pitcher Matt Strahm from the Philadelphia Phillies over the offseason. Strahm has blossomed over the past couple of seasons, posting a 2.74 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 2025.
So, will the Royals hit the OVER?
Kansas City has its second straight over/under line at 82.5 wins. It seems to be a consistent line set by odds makers for a team in a potentially competitive division. The AL Central could go in any number of ways, with the Royals, Guardians, Tigers and Twins. Even improvements by the Chicago White Sox allow them to not be counted out right away.
FanGraphs projects the Royals to finish 81-81 and second in the AL Central, which most likely puts them as one of the last teams in the AL Wildcard. The Royals should be much improved on both sides and that gives them a good chance at hitting their OVER and should be in the playoffs.
Main Image: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
