The race for the NHL’s 2026 Hart Trophy begins to take shape long before ballots are cast. As the league’s most prestigious individual honor, the Hart Trophy reflects not only raw production but also overall value to a team’s success. Early market movement offers insight into how voters, analysts, and sportsbooks evaluate elite players as the season enters its heart.
Performance trends, team context, and narrative momentum all play decisive roles in shaping expectations. Established superstars remain central to the conversation, while emerging talents continue to force their way into contention.
With multiple MVP-caliber players driving their teams, the Hart Trophy picture remains fluid. Understanding which players are gaining traction and which are losing ground adds valuable context for fans tracking the evolving landscape.
Nathan MacKinnon
Team: Colorado Avalanche
Nathan MacKinnon continues to anchor the Hart Trophy conversation through elite consistency and sustained dominance. His impact extends beyond scoring totals, as Colorado’s offense often flows directly through his pace, vision, and physicality.
Market sentiment remains strong because MacKinnon rarely experiences prolonged downturns, and his production tends to rise as games intensify. When Colorado strings together wins, projections around his candidacy strengthen quickly.
Recent analysis from 2025 highlights how MacKinnon’s two-way commitment elevates the Avalanche during tight playoff races, reinforcing his reputation as a complete player. His ability to control possession and tilt the ice fuels confidence that his Hart Trophy outlook remains stable, if not improving.
As other contenders fluctuate, MacKinnon’s reliability keeps his projection near the top of the board. If Colorado maintains divisional pressure, his standing will continue to trend upward as a safe, high-value candidate.
Macklin Celebrini
Team: San Jose Sharks
Macklin Celebrini emerges as one of the most fascinating Hart Trophy storylines entering 2026. As a young cornerstone for San Jose, his rapid adaptation to NHL competition fuels steady movement in his favor. Analysts note that Celebrini’s offensive creativity and maturity far exceed typical rookie expectations, creating optimism around his long-term value.
While team success remains a challenge for the Sharks, individual brilliance often reshapes award narratives. Celebrini’s growing influence on possession and scoring sequences strengthens projections that his candidacy is continuing to climb. Coverage throughout 2025 emphasizes how his presence accelerates San Jose’s rebuild, giving voters a compelling “most valuable” argument despite standings limitations.
As his role expands and confidence grows, market momentum reflects rising belief in his ceiling. Celebrini’s trajectory suggests his Hart Trophy outlook improves with every sustained scoring stretch and highlight performance that reinforces his star potential.
Connor McDavid
Team: Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid remains the league’s benchmark for individual excellence, and his Hart Trophy profile continues to command respect. Even when narrative fatigue emerges, McDavid’s ability to separate himself statistically and stylistically resets expectations. His speed and playmaking remain unmatched, keeping his candidacy relevant regardless of preseason assumptions.
In 2025 coverage, analysts noted that McDavid’s market perception fluctuates less with short slumps and more with team momentum. When Edmonton surges, projections around his Hart Trophy chances quickly stabilize or rise. His influence on every facet of the Oilers’ offense sustains confidence that he remains a viable frontrunner.
Fans tracking scores and odds nhl understand that McDavid’s outlook rarely collapses entirely. Instead, it adjusts incrementally, reflecting his near-guaranteed elite production. As long as Edmonton competes near the top of the conference, his Hart Trophy positioning remains firmly in play.
Nikita Kucherov
Team: Tampa Bay Lightning
Nikita Kucherov’s Hart Trophy outlook hinges on timing and narrative momentum. Known for explosive scoring runs, Kucherov tends to surge later in the season, which historically reshapes perceptions of his candidacy. When Tampa Bay stabilizes defensively, his offensive impact becomes more pronounced, drawing renewed attention.
Recent 2025 analysis highlights how Kucherov’s playmaking efficiency and power-play dominance elevate team results during critical stretches. When the Lightning regain consistency, projections surrounding his Hart Trophy chances often rise sharply. His ability to carry offensive load during injuries or roster transitions strengthens the “value” argument central to the award.
Although early sentiment may fluctuate, Kucherov remains one of the league’s most dangerous momentum players. Sustained production during playoff races positions him as a sleeper whose outlook improves rapidly once Tampa Bay gains traction in the standings.
Leon Draisaitl
Team: Edmonton Oilers
Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy candidacy thrives on efficiency and versatility. While often paired with McDavid, Draisaitl’s individual value becomes clearer when he drives scoring independently. Analysts note that his physical presence, finishing ability, and power-play impact remain elite league-wide.
Throughout 2025, online NHL narratives emphasize that Draisaitl’s perception rises when Edmonton relies on him during key stretches. His ability to dominate below the circles and maintain production through contact strengthens long-term projections. When his line carries games, his Hart Trophy narrative gains clarity.
Although his outlook occasionally trails his superstar teammate, it rarely declines significantly. Instead, it responds to usage and results. As Edmonton balances offensive responsibilities, Draisaitl’s projection improves when his contributions visibly tilt outcomes, reinforcing his standing as one of hockey’s most valuable forwards.
An Exciting Period
The 2026 Hart Trophy race remains fluid, shaped by performance trends, team success, and evolving narratives. Established superstars like MacKinnon and McDavid continue to set the bar, while players like Celebrini inject intrigue with rapid development. Veterans like Kucherov and Draisaitl rely on momentum swings that historically redefine award conversations late in the season.
As team trajectories shift, so do perceptions of individual value. Monitoring these movements offers insight into how the Hart Trophy picture evolves long before voting begins.
With months still to play, sustained excellence, not short bursts, ultimately determines whose candidacy rises and whose stalls. For fans and analysts alike, the race underscores why the Hart Trophy remains one of the NHL’s most compelling individual awards.
Main Image: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
