The Oklahoma City Thunder are just past the quarter mark of the 2025-26 NBA season. There are still many games left, but they are off to a historic start. If this keeps up, the Thunder are prone to make more history, which is why I’m here to make a few predictions on the remainder of the Thunder’s season.
OKC Thunder Quarter Point Check-In
True or False: The Thunder will break the Warriors’ win record?
Tramaine’s Verdict: False.
The Thunder are currently on a 79-win pace. Still, it’s hard to bet on that due to all of the factors that have to go their way, as Draymond Green pointed out that it took everything from his 2015-16 Warriors team to get 73 wins, highlighting the incredible sacrifice and luck (health, breaks) needed, which is improbable to count on.
According to Tankathon, the Thunder have the toughest remaining schedule (.540 SOS), making the overall task harder, so they could hit a bit of a wall.
On top of the difficult upcoming stretches, the Thunder will be disciplined in not prioritizing a record over the long-term picture of winning back-to-back titles. I’d expect the Thunder to have the No. 1 seed in the West locked up for a third straight year and likely the best record in the league pretty early, which means sacrificing wins by resting players at the end of the season to be healthy for the playoffs.
It would take going all out for that record to get that record, which is putting that discipline to the ultimate test to avoid being sucked into that chase for the betterment of the ultimate goal: NBA Championships. The Thunder will prioritize putting themselves in a position to make micro history during the parity era by winning back-to-back titles rather than breaking the win record.
True or False: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should win back-to-back MVPs?
Tramaine’s Verdict: True.
There’s no wrong answer here — with either Nikola Jokic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Both players are once again having historical seasons.
Here I’m mainly focusing on what SGA is doing, and it’s absolutely incredible. He’s averaging more points this season (32.8 PPG) in less minutes (33.3 MPG) on better shooting from the floor (55.6%) and has become a knockdown three-point shooter as well (44.3% on five attempts), and is shooting 88.1% from the free throw line, so he’s in the 50/40/90 territory, while averaging fewer turnovers (1.7) — despite his usage rate being the same (33.1%). Also, his defensive playmaking gets overshadowed as he continues to be among the leading leaders in stocks (steals + blocks) for guards.
Combine the historic individual performance + historical team success — on pace to win 70+ games = my current pick for MVP.
SGA has been the constant variable behind the Thunder’s 23-1 start. As we’ve seen, this team has dealt with internal adversity by having its key pieces unavailable at one point or another, yet the Thunder keep on winning. And with SGA, you’re looking at a guy who’s improved his individual game (with his three-point shot and playmaking), which not only has helped his game but has also taken his team to another level. With last night’s game against Utah being his first missed game this season.
Factor in all of these elements, and it’s hard to envision SGA’s play dropping off or the team falling off drastically.
True or False: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will shoot 40+% from 3?
Tramaine’s Verdict: True.
My reason for this claim is that every time I think he reaches his ceiling. He finds a way to break through it. And the improvement in the three-point category is another such instance.
SGA’s three-point shooting is a real development in his game — as he’s shooting 43% from the left corner, 51% from the left wing, 41% from the top of the arc, and 40% from the right wing, and 52% on step-backs. This shows he’s knocking down the three from multiple areas at an efficient rate.
It could just be a hot streak, as he started the season on a cold streak, and things could plateau, but it’s substantial evidence of SGA’s ability to improve his game, and this is the latest example, as his shot mechanics are smoother and quicker. Add in the fact that, unlike any other team he’s played with in OKC, this team can set him up and generate cleaner looks at a higher rate, which will obviously help his case.
True or False: Chet Holmgren will take another offensive leap this season?
Tramaine’s Verdict: True.
We’re starting to see Chet Holmgren be more decisive and find his spots. He’s finding out how much it makes the game easier for him — as he has really started to utilize the elbow spots, has dominated the middle of the floor and right outside the restricted area, and has done so in the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop.
Holmgren is averaging 18 points on 56/36/82 shooting splits. He’s capitalizing, which is very encouraging for where his offensive game is going to continue to go as he gets more efficient, comfortable, and gains consistency with his scoring and the chemistry he will continue to develop with SGA, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Ajay Mitchell as these guys will set him up in proper spots — now that he’s showing more versatility offensively.
All signs are trending upwards on Holmgren getting better than the improvement that you’ve already seen him make as an offensive player for the Thunder.
True or False: The Thunder are CLEARLY better this year and will perform better in this year’s playoffs?
Tramaine’s Verdict: True.
This Thunder team always talks about how all of these challenges “builds a muscle” and how you’re adding something to your toolbox that will come in handy in the postseason. The unfortunate injuries to multiple key players are perfect examples, as this set of adversities forced OKC to focus on other personnel.
For instance, an expanded offensive role for Holmgren, more development reps for the Holmgren-Hartenstein double-big lineups, Ajay Mitchell in a secondary-creator role + running the second unit, allowed Cason Wallace to get into the starter role.
Adding the experience from last postseason — being pushed to seven games twice. Now, the Thunder can utilize that experience this postseason. In addition to Holmgren’s offensive growth, which is crucial, SGA’s three-point shooting and playmaking improvement will be needed in the playoffs, after struggling from three (ranking 13th out of 16) and stalling in the half-court too often. Ajay Mitchell’s ascension as a creator will help OKC a lot offensively in the playoffs. It really feels like all of these situations and experiences will be very beneficial as a team in their quest to repeat.
Main Image: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
