The Vanderbilt Commodores have been one of the most exciting and surprising stories of the 2025 college football season. Led by Head Coach Clark Lea and quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores have reignited excitement for football in Nashville like it hasn’t seen in decades. Vanderbilt’s preseason win total projection was 5.5 games. They surpassed that, securing their first 10-win season in school history with a victory in Knoxville against rival Tennessee. Now 10-2 with only two conference losses, the Commodores will definitely make their case for a spot in the CFP top 12, but here’s why they will not make it.
Vanderbilt Won’t Make the College Football Playoff
Critical losses in the biggest games
While Vanderbilt did win 10 games, their two losses are what will crush their playoff hopes, starting with their loss in Tuscaloosa against then No. 10-ranked Alabama. It was their first real test after starting the year 5-0, and after scoring over 31 points in each of those five wins, they walked into Bryant-Denny and left with only 14 points on the board. The Alabama defense made Pavia and the rest of the offense uncomfortable throughout the game, and it showed in the box score, with Vanderbilt committing two turnovers.
The Commodores’ next real test was in Austin, Texas, as they faced the then #20-ranked Longhorns. The final score, at first glance, is misleading about how the game played out, with Vanderbilt only losing by three. Texas was in control of the game for the first three quarters, and by the time the Commodores were able to find their offense, it was just too late. Vanderbilt scored just 10 points in the first three quarters but found itself in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 unanswered points and almost recovering an onside kick that would’ve given them a chance to tie or win the game.
No elite wins
Winning 10 games with an SEC schedule, Vanderbilt surely would have some elite wins to boost their chances of making the CFP, but unfortunately for them, that’s not how it turned out. The Commodores’ best win of the season came this past weekend against the #19 Tennessee Volunteers, who finished their season at 8-4 and are ranked 9th in the SEC. After that, it’s LSU and Missouri — both wins that felt huge at the time, but as the season went on, the flaws of Missouri and LSU became clear, and both fell out of the rankings shortly after playing Vanderbilt. So on paper, they have four ranked wins, but of those, only Tennessee was ranked this past weekend.
5 SEC Teams with Better Resumes
Aside from the strength of schedule not favoring the Commodores’ case for a playoff bid, many SEC teams have a clearly better resume than Vanderbilt. Starting at the top, Georgia and Alabama will face off in the SEC Championship this weekend. Georgia finishes the year 11-1, with wins over Texas, Ole Miss, and Georgia Tech, while Alabama is 10-2, with wins over Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee, including the head-to-head victory against Vanderbilt.
Next are the other likely at-large SEC playoff teams: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Ole Miss ended the season 11-1, with a road win over Oklahoma, just a week after narrowly losing to Georgia in Athens. Texas A&M just lost its first game, in its final regular-season game, but before that, they secured a road win over Notre Dame and won all their other games except for this weekend against Texas. Lastly, there’s Oklahoma, which went on a hot streak after losing to Ole Miss, going undefeated in November by beating Tennessee, Alabama, and Missouri, along with an out-of-conference win against Michigan in week two.
The common thread here is that the rest of the SEC has the same wins as Vanderbilt, along with better ones or head-to-head victories, which will likely eliminate the Commodores from playoff contention despite being one of the most compelling stories in college football this year.
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