The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby takes place Monday night and a catcher is the headliner and odds-on favorite.
The Seattle Mariners‘ Cal Raleigh is having a historic season with 38 home runs, marking the most by a catcher at the All-Star break in MLB history. This season, Raleigh ranks ahead of MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in homers, and now, Raleigh is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby. However, to get it done he will have to overcome some tough historical trends.
Raleigh will become the second-ever player to switch-hit in the Derby, plus no catcher has ever won the Derby. This is year 39 of the event, so history is against Raleigh despite him being the favorite.
The Minnesota Twins‘ Byron Buxton is having a great comeback season and has the longest home run of this field at 479 feet, while Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates is second with a 463-footer, and the Washington Nationals‘ James Wood is third at 451.
Matt Olson is also in the field after replacing his Atlanta Braves teammate Ronald Acuña Jr., who has dealt with some injuries over the last few weeks. Rounding out the field are the Athletics‘ Brent Rooker, New York Yankees‘ Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays.
MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Predictions
Odds to Win the Home Run Derby
These are the latest odds as of Monday afternoon at FanDuel.
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+300) – Bet $10 to win $30
- Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+310) – Bet $10 to win $31
- James Wood, Nationals (+370) – Bet $10 to win $37
- Byron Buxton, Twins (+850) – Bet $10 to win $85
- Matt Olson, Braves (+950) – Bet $10 to win $95
- Junior Caminero, Rays (+1000) – Bet $10 to win $100
- Brent Rooker, Athletics (+1000) – Bet $10 to win $100
- Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+1600) – Bet $10 to win $160
The Format of the 2025 Home Run Derby
During the first round, the eight hitters have three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, to hit dingers.
Each player has an untimed round that continues until three outs occur following the first three-minute round. If a batter hits a homer longer than 425 feet during the first three minutes or 40 pitches, that player may be awarded an extra out, like last season.
The semifinals will have a round of two minutes or 27 pitches, whichever comes first, for the four-player field. The first round totals will not carry over into the second round, so the two best head-to-head totals advance to the finals where the format will be the same as the semifinals.
Top Betting Trends to Know Ahead of the Home Run Derby
- No catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby
- Raleigh leads the MLB with 38 homers
- Wood has hit 11 of his 24 home runs to centerfield, which leads MLB
- Caminero has the second-fastest bat speed in all of MLB this season
- Buxton has the longest homer of the derby field at 479 feet this season
- Rooker will have his childhood hitting coach throwing to him in the Derby
- Chisholm Jr. (17 homers) is on pace to shatter his career-high of 24 from last season
- Olson is a Georgia native and attended the Derby as a fan the last time it was in Atlanta in 2000
- Cruz hit a baseball 122.9 MPH this season, which ranked as the fastest of the tracking era
Predictions
My favorite pick here is Wood (+370). He is a superstar in the making for the Nationals and this is a big opportunity to introduce himself to a national audience. He has also played four games in Atlanta this season and hit a homer in his first appearance. He has played plenty of games at Truist Park over the last season and a half being in the same division as the Braves, so he is very familiar with the park.
Olson (+950) would be my favorite sleeper. He is the only player in the field with experience in this unique format and has whatever home-field advantage exists in this event, so the +950 price is certainly one I will be taking a shot on.
Main Image: Â Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
