The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a second consecutive first-round sweep in the postseason and will have had nine days off by the start of this series. The Thunder are trying to accomplish what Denver accomplished in 2023: winning a championship.
Despite losing key role players over the past couple of seasons, the front office experienced tension regarding Denver’s depth issues, which led to Michael Malone’s shocking firing. The Nuggets still won 50 games and are now in a second-round showdown with the Thunder.
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a tough seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers. As a result, Denver will have just one off day before facing the Thunder in the second round.
Here is my preview, things to watch for, keys, and series predictions for this second-round matchup between the Thunder and the Nuggets.
Thunder-Nuggets Preview
Season Series
The Thunder split the regular season series 2-2.
- Game 1: October 24th: @ Denver (Won 102-87)
- Game 2: November 6th: @ Denver (Lost 122-124)
- Game 3: March 9th: vs Denver (Won 127-103)
- Game 4: March 10th: vs Denver (Lost 127-140)
In the four meetings, the Thunder had a +24 point differential.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets put up the most points (140) by any opponent this season against the Thunder.
Playoff History
This will be the second time Oklahoma City has faced Denver in the playoffs. The Thunder are 4-1 all-time against the Nuggets in the playoffs.
The only playoff series between the two teams was in 2011, which the Thunder won 4-1. The most recent playoff series between the two teams was in 2014, which the Thunder won 4-1.
Main Storyline
Battle of the MVPs
Denver and Oklahoma City have been linked all season due to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s and Nikola Jokic’s battle for MVP.
This matchup features two players who finished in the top two in MVP voting the last two years.
Jokic, a three-time MVP, is viewed as the best player in the NBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has quickly ascended into a superstar and is likely this year’s MVP.
The MVP stakes and bragging rights between both sides will be as heightened as we’ve seen in quite some time.
Things To Keep An Eye On
The Non Jokic Minutes & The Bench Production
Throughout the season, the Nuggets have been one of the worst offenses in the NBA when Jokic is not on the floor. In their matchup against the Clippers, in 61 minutes with Jokic off the floor, the Nuggets were a -27 NETRTG and were a +5.6, with him on the floor.
The Thunder have been the best defense all season, and they have to keep that statistic as a trend and punish Denver during the non-Jokic minutes.
Those non-Jokic minutes will likely coincide with the non-SGA minutes. This is where the Thunder’s depth comes into play. These playoffs have shown that depth is equally essential as star power, and the Thunder have a clear advantage in this area.
The Thunder can go 10-11 deep into their rotation. Need defense? The Thunder have two All-Defensive caliber guards, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. Need some scoring? The Thunder have Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, who can heat up in a second. Need some toughness and grit? The Thunder have Kenrich Williams and Jaylin Williams, who do the things that don’t appear in the boxscore.
Denver will only go seven deep, as the Nuggets are only comfortable playing Russell Westbrook and Peyton Watson off the bench.
The Thunder have a clear edge, and it will be interesting to monitor whether the Nuggets slow down throughout the series.
The Front-Courts
The most crucial matchups in this series are the frontcourts of Jokic and Aaron Gordan vs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Everything starts with Jokic, and there’s no stopping him, but the Thunder can not allow him to dictate everything.
In the regular-season series, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, 11.5 assists (2.8 turnovers), 1.8 blocks, and 1.5 steals on 52 percent shooting from the floor and 28 percent from three, with a 57.5 true-shooting percentage.
The schemes that will be utilized and how both teams attack the frontcourts on both ends will play a significant role in the outcome of this series.
The Holmgren-Hartenstein-Williams frontcourt will have to play with force and contain the interior to advance.
Who Controls The Pace
Both teams will look to play quickly, as both teams are in the top 10 in pace.
In the regular season, Denver was number eight in Pace (100.7), number four in ORTG (118.9), number three in PPG (120.8), number one in paint points (58.5) and fast break points (20.1), and number five in 3-point percentage (37.6% percent).
Oklahoma City was number five in Pace (100.90), number three in ORTG (119.2), number four in PPG (120.5), number two in drives per game (54.5), number one in points allowed in the paint (42.5), forced turnovers (17), points off turnovers (21.8), and in DTRG (106.6).
Jokic is currently the best player in controlling the pace, whose ability to create for others will provide a big test for Oklahoma City, the best team in disrupting the pace, making for a fun clash of styles.
Keys To The Series
Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray has earned a reputation as a playoff riser, which began in Orlando’s “bubble” playoffs in 2020 and solidified it with his play in Denver’s 2023 title run—averaging 24 points per game in 72 career playoff games.
Although Murray has had consistency issues, mainly due to injuries, he can score 30+ points on any given night, and his two-man game with Jokic will be challenging to solve.
Lu Dort will defend Murray, who is familiar with his game. The two played together on the Canadian men’s national team. A key factor in this series will be whether Oklahoma City’s elite perimeter personnel can contain Murray.
Aaron Gordan
Arguably, the biggest X-factor in this series is Gordan, who has been a major problem for the Thunder since arriving in Denver. Gordan has averaged 14.4 points and 7 rebounds in 13 games for the Nuggets against the Thunder.
Gordan was very impactful in the first-round series against the Clippers, averaging 18.9 points on 51.6 percent shooting from the floor.
Limiting Gordan’s activity in the paint and on the glass will be crucial for the Thunder.
Michael Porter
While Michael Porter’s production has been inconsistent, he’s playing on one good arm but is still an X-Factor with his ability to knock down the three-ball and crash the glass.
When Porter is knocking down the three-ball, it completely opens up the floor and unlocks Denver’s offense.
Limiting Porter’s effectiveness from the perimeter will allow the Thunder to takeaway space and play the gaps, putting more pressure on Jokic.
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook will make his triumphant return to Oklahoma City. Although he is not the star he once was when he played for the Thunder, he provides an elite motor and infectious energy that has the potential to change the tide of the series.
It’s no secret that there are highs and lows that come with Westbrook, which was evident in the series against the Clippers.
Westbrook will provide a massive energy boost for the Nuggets; whether his tenacity helps or hurts the Nuggets will be a storyline against his former team.
Offensive Keys
Offensively, Denver’s main priority will be slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, as he is the engine.
In the regular-season series, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.2 points, 6.5 assists (3.5 turnovers), 1.7 blocks, and 1 steal on 49 percent shooting from the floor and 26 percent from three, with a 53.1 true-shooting percentage.
Just as Jalen Williams stepped up and performed in the first round, his creation will be pivotal for the Thunder.
Holmgren falls into the same category. His ability to stretch out the defense, space the floor, and attack Denver’s frontcourt off the dribble will be a key factor in this series.
Knowing how Oklahoma City lost at this stage a season ago, there’s bitterness and motivation to advance past this stage.
Expect Oklahoma City to scheme ways to create offensive advantages by generating paint touches and putting pressure & attacking Jokic on the defensive end.
Series Prediction
Oklahoma City in six. The Thunder have the star power, the depth, the attrition, and the hungrier team, which makes beating them four times in a best-of-seven very difficult. The Nuggets don’t have the depth, but they’re still a 50-win team and have the best player in the world.
This will be a test—Denver’s size and frontcourt skillset present problems. Oklahoma City is the better team with the personnel to overcome those problems.
Main Image: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
