Like every prior year, the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament will play host to an unbelievable level of basketball, as well as unimaginable upsets. Although we likely will not see a 16-seed topple a 1-seed this year, at least one team will spoil a contender’s championship hopes and shock the world. Picking these unlikely upsets requires a sizable amount of luck. Fortunately for us, we can determine which teams are seeded higher or lower than they deserve, thereby making an upset slightly likelier than we otherwise would expect.
Teams Seeded Too High and Too Low in the NCAA Tournament
Three Over-seeded Teams
St. John’s
At 30-4 overall, St. John’s has had a terrific season so far. They ended Big East play with nine straight wins and a conference regular season and tournament title. They climbed their way into the top 10 in the AP national rankings and have sat comfortably there for several weeks. While I believe the Red Storm are a great team, I question if they are truly deserving of a 2-seed.
They are an elite defensive team, holding opponents to only 65.9 points per game, but they really struggle to shoot the three, at only 30.4 percent as a team. This weakness may hurt them once they play opponents outside of the Big East, as two of their four losses came in the 10 out of conference games before Big East play.
Memphis
As discussed in one of my other pieces, Memphis is consistently inconsistent. They recruit well since everyone wants to play for head coach Penny Hardaway. Yet, the American Athletic Conference is a slightly weaker conference, so Memphis often struggles to play quality opponents.
They performed well at the beginning of the season in their out of conference schedule, picking up wins against Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Ole Miss. Since then, they have settled into conference play, often playing down to their opponents’ level even though the winning has continued. For example, they barely escaped the conference tournament with a championship, nearly losing in three different games. My confidence in the Tigers is low heading into March Madness, especially facing off against a tough Colorado State team.
Arizona
Despite advancing to the Big 12 title game, Arizona received a higher seed than they earned. They only had seven wins against teams that made the NCAA tournament, despite playing in the Big 12 and having an opportunity to pick up quality wins every night. Their best player, Caleb Love, could score 30 points or could shoot 4-15 from the field, and this inconsistency is difficult to trust. Do not be surprised if Akron knocks off Arizona in the first round.
Three Under-seeded Teams
Kentucky
Earlier this season, the Wildcats spent 10 consecutive weeks ranked in the top 10 in the national poll. After losing some key players to injuries, they sank down to 19th as recently as two weeks ago. While guard Jaxson Robinson is out for the season, Kentucky will get Lamont Butler back for the NCAA tournament. The point guard brings toughness, elite defense, and underappreciated winning plays for a Kentucky team that can score with any team in the country but has lacked reliable guard play since his injury. Although a 3-seed seems like a fair ranking, the Wildcats are not drawing too much attention and could quietly make a deep run this year.
Gonzaga
Gonzaga has been a tough team to judge this season. In the preseason poll, they ranked sixth, but by week 12, they sat outside the top 25 and were quickly forgotten by many analysts. Yet, they have the same talented players, the same future Hall of Fame coach, and won nine of their final 10 games, including a West Coast Conference tournament final against a tough Saint Mary’s team. While they probably deserve an 8-seed based on their losses, they have the experience and skill to give Houston some problems in the round of 32 if they advance past Georgia in the opening round.
Louisville
The Cardinals had to feel cheated with their selection as an 8-seed. They finished second in the ACC in the regular season, and they came up just short against Duke in the conference tournament championship game. They even finished the year ranked in the top 15 in the AP poll. ACC Coach of the Year Pat Kelsey will surely use this seeding as motivation for his team. Louisville has a tough path though, as they face off against a steady Creighton team, and then would likely play the top seeded Auburn Tigers if they advance.
Main Image: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
