There are few more significant events on the sporting calendar than the Kentucky Derby.
The most famous race in the United States is held on the first Saturday in May annually, with the contest kicking off the Triple Crown series in North America. The Derby is revered as one of the biggest events of the year, with even newcomers looking to make wagers on the action in the hope of finding the winner.
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However, if you’re looking to watch the race for the first time in 2025, what are some of the key tips that you should follow to enhance your chances of finding the winner?
Watch Prep Races
While the Kentucky Derby is the most famous race on the horse racing schedule, it is by no means the only race.
It is important to understand that the Derby is the long-term target for many talented horses aged three, but their starting place in the race will be determined based on performances in prep races. The Road to the Kentucky Derby gets underway in the year prior to the Triple Crown race, with the top performances securing their spot at Churchill Downs.
Newcomers to the race can consider the prep races and the performances of the leading contenders before making their selections.
Assess Markets
There are a wide range of wagering options available when it comes to waging on the Kentucky Derby, and understanding what each market entails to get returns is essential.
The moneyline is the most popular option among gamblers, as you will simply put your stake down on the runner than you believe will win the Derby. However, there is also a selection of markets available than can offer an insurance to newcomers.
These include the Place and Show, where runners can finish either in the first two or three, respectively, to gain returns. Exacta and Trifecta are also available, as these wagers can be placed on the exact finishing order in the race.
Consider Stable Form
Stable form is essentially important when considering the leading Derby contenders, as players will typically opt against waging on a trainer that has been in poor form.
Negative trends in terms of results could indicate that something may be amiss at a yard, and highlight a team that are underperforming. Solid win rates on track will indicate trainers that are getting the very best out of their runners.
When placing wagers on the Derby, it is always wise to consider the hot and cold yards before making selections. However, it is worth noting that these trends can typically be found in the starting prices, as cold trainers will rarely have a favorite for a big race.
Jockey’s History in Race
As well as assessing the trainer, newcomers to the race should also consider the jockey that is booked to ride their selection.
Experienced jockeys are an important factor to consider before watching the race, as the atmosphere and nerves could impact a more inexperienced rider on one of the biggest racing stages in the world.
Jockeys such as John Velazquez, Mike Smith, and Flavien Prat always rank among popular selections when it comes to the Derby, as each have wins to their name in the race. Meanwhile, the latter of the jockeys has only finished out of the places on one of his last seven rides in the opening leg of the Triple Crown.
Assess Trends
If a newcomer doesn’t wish to go through all the past performances of the runners in the Derby, then the trends are important reading. Historical trends can pinpoint runners that should be in the mix to win the race.
Among notable trends worth considering include the fact that fast finishers often prevail in the Derby. That is indicated by 19 of the last 26 renewals seeing the final three-eighths of a mile being completed in 0.38 seconds.
Horses from California and Florida have also had a winning record in recent editions, with the former producing seven of the last 13 winners. Prep races to overlook include the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial, with neither having produced a victor in the Derby in over 20 years.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders
The wagering for the 2025 Derby is already taking shape. Bob Baffert appears to hold a strong hand on his return to Churchill Downs, with Barnes and Citizen Bull both winning notable preps to this point.
Burnham Square also looks a likely contender from the Ian Wilkes stable at this stage after dominating the G3 Holy Bull Stakes.
Coal Battle is one of the sleeper picks at this stage after continuing his progression with a victory in the Rebel Stakes. Journalism and Disco Time are two further contenders that could take high rank at Churchill Downs in May.
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