Upstart Indiana makes its first-ever appearance in the college football playoff led by brash and ultra-confident first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. This will be the first game under the new expanded 12-team playoff. Adding additional intrigue to the game is that it’s an in-state rivalry and will be played under the lights at famed Notre Dame Stadium. Let’s take a look at what we think will happen in this one.
CFP Preview: Indiana at Notre Dame
Indiana
Indiana surprised everyone by finishing 11-1 on the season. They were dominant in almost every game except for a close win at home against Michigan and a blowout loss at Ohio State. While the Buckeyes’ win was decisive, the Hoosiers contributed with two big and uncharacteristic special teams mistakes.
Indiana is led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke who combined pinpoint accuracy over the course of the season with a knack for big plays. Rourke completed over 70 percent of his passing attempts for 2,827 yards with 27 touchdowns with only four interceptions.
The Hoosiers also have a pair of solid running backs who found the end zone often this year. Justice Ellison ran for 811 yards and 11 touchdowns while Ty son Lawson picked up 634 yards on the ground and found the end zone 12 times. Indiana also had proficiency through the air as previously evidenced by Rourke’s stats. Receiver Elijah Sarratt scored eight touchdowns and averaged 18.2 yards per catch while Omar Cooper scored six touchdowns and averaged over 21 yards per catch.
On defense, the Hoosiers utilized a committee approach as seven different players had an interception and 17 players had at least half a sack led by Mikail Kamara with ten sacks.
Notre Dame
The Irish offense is led by first-year incoming transfer quarterback Riley Leonard who came to South Bend from Duke. While his passing stats are not overly impressive with only 16 passing touchdowns he did add 12 scores on the ground. Just like the Hoosiers, Notre Dame also has two running backs who can carry the load.
The rushing attack was led by Jeremiyah Love who ran for almost 1000 yards and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground. Jadarian Price also pitched in nicely with 651 rushing yards and seven scores of his own.
Since the Irish relied heavily on the run game which included Leonard who is a physical runner if not overly elusive, no one on the receiving corps put up big numbers. However, the Irish did have an astounding 12 players with at least one receiving touchdown showing that they have significant depth there.
On defense, the team was led by Rylie Mills with 6.5 sacks and Xavier Watts with five interceptions. They also had nine different players with at least one interception and returned five to the house on the season showing that they have significant depth on the back end. The team has clearly rebounded well from the early season home loss to North Illinois and has an argument as one of the most consistent teams over the last half of the season.
The Matchup
Obviously, Notre Dame is the favorite here as it’s a home game against a playoff newcomer. However, we should expect Indiana to perform better than they did in their only other marquee matchup this season v Ohio State. With Cignetti having an extra week to prepare his team don’t expect the same level of poor special teams play we saw in Columbus.
The Hoosiers also have one of the best-run defenses in the country. Statistically, that is. This is misleading and will be apparent in the playoff game. Indiana blew out most of their opponents which caused their foes to abandon the run earlier than they hoped. It’s also no secret they didn’t play a tough schedule.
Indiana will be competitive in a game that Notre Dame will control but not dominate. Indiana won’t be way ahead at any point meaning the Irish will pound the ball throughout. They will wear down the Hoosiers defense that doesn’t have the depth to go toe to toe with the Irish for four quarters in the trenches.
Both teams rank a little above average in the special teams rankings so we don’t see them as a determining factor. But you never know.
Prediction:
Notre Dame 33 Indiana 20
Give Cignetti another year or two to add talent and depth on both lines and they will be dangerous come playoff time. Just not this year. The best story in college football comes to an end in the first round.
Main Image: MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
