NFL training camps provide a terrific opportunity to plan your fantasy football draft strategy. Which free-agent veteran running backs are destined to boom this year, and who will bust?
NFL Fantasy-Boom or Bust For Five Veteran RBs
Sometimes a change of scenery can breathe new life into a veteran running back. New coaching, an improved o-line, and an aggressive run-first scheme can make all the difference.
When Trades and Free Agency Lead To Great Outcomes
Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy managers benefitted greatly from the trade to the 49ers that reignited his athletic prowess and opened the door to his best season yet. Last year, his first full season with the 49ers, McCaffrey earned 1,459 yards on 272 carries with 14 touchdowns, and added 67 receptions for 564 yards and seven more touchdowns. Other than 2019 when he achieved 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season, it was a great improvement over McCaffrey’s production with the Panthers.
When Preseason Projections Get It Wrong
Remember not to rely solely on preseason projections when planning your draft strategy. Based upon his 2021-2022 production, Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler ranked within the top three draft picks last year. Ekeler was an absolute workhorse in 2022. Starting all 17 games, he earned just under 1,000 yards rushing with 915 yards on 204 carries with 13 touchdowns. Ekeler added another 722 yards with 107 /127 receptions and five touchdowns. The previous year, he posted 911 yards on 206 carries with 12 touchdowns and nabbed 70/94 receptions for 647 yards with eight receiving touchdowns.
Based on those performance metrics, preseason fantasy projections had Ekeler coming off the 2023 draft board in the number two slot behind Christian McCaffrey. But last year Ekeler was a bust. His numbers bore no resemblance to previous years, let alone one worthy of a first-round draft pick.
Appearing in only 14 games due to injuries, Ekeler posted 628 yards on 179 carries with five touchdowns in 2023. He brought in an additional 436 yards on 51/74 catches with one touchdown. His 3.5 yards per carry and 14.7% target share were all-time lows in his career.
What to Expect This Season:
Austin Ekeler
Signing as a free agent with the Washington Commanders in the offseason, early reports suggest Ekeler has fully recovered from the ankle injury that plagued him for much of last season. ESPN fantasy projections predict Ekeler will be drafted between the 26th-35th selections. Although the 29-year-old should rebound from last year’s disastrous performance, he will be sharing the workload with talented young running back Brian Robinson. In addition, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, known for his mobility, will likely be the go-to option in short-yardage touchdown scenarios. Where Ekeler does have a significant advantage over Robinson is his pass-catching ability. As one of the best running backs in the league for receptions, Ekeler should become a favored target for Daniels.
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry could experience a similar upgrade by signing as a free agent with the Baltimore Ravens. On paper, the highly mobile and agile scoring threat posed by quarterback Lamar Jackson and Henry is an offensive coordinator’s dream; one that could create nightmares for the opposition.
With 90 career touchdowns and 9,502 career yards, “King” Henry is one of the toughest, and most productive running backs in the NFL. Last year was his worst season and despite the limitations of former Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel’s offense, Henry still managed 1,167 yards on 280 carries with 12 touchdowns.
By comparison, Henry achieved 1,538 yards on 349 carries with 13 touchdowns in 2022. His best year was in 2020 when he delivered 2,027 yards on 378 carries with 17 touchdowns. Preseason projections have Henry listed as the number eight-ranked running back in the league.
Given his willingness to play hard despite any prior offensive restrictions placed on him, Henry’s only downside is his age. He is 29 years old and running backs are notoriously prone to age-related injuries. But assuming he stays healthy, it’s safe to say that playing for a genuine Super Bowl contender rather than the struggling Titans should result in an excellent year.
Tony Pollard
Speaking of Tennessee, they are currently in a rebuilding mode under new head coach Brian Callahan. The former offensive coordinator for the Bengals, Callahan brings an impressive resume to the job including two AFC Championships and a Super Bowl appearance. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow-led offense flourished under Callahan’s guidance. Despite the loss of Derrick Henry, the Titans should show steady improvement based on the numerous changes made in the offseason. Tony Pollard will now lead the Titan’s backfield after posting back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. Second-year back, Tyjae Spears who managed 453 yards with two touchdowns on 100 carries in his rookie season, will compete for touches.
Although Pollard is accustomed to bringing in 40-50 receptions a year, his target figure may go down slightly with the new and improved Titans receiving corp of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins. ESPN fantasy projects Pollard should be drafted between the 28th-32nd pick.
Joe Mixon
Signed as a free-agent running back to the Houston Texans this off-season, veteran Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has four 1,000-yard rushing seasons to his credit. Throughout his career with the Bengals, Mixon has been a steady reliable workhorse for his fantasy managers with 62 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. Joining a thriving young Houston offense under 2023 Coach of the Year DeMeco Ryans and sharing touches with Dameon Pierce, Mixon should see another 1,000 yards plus rushing season. He is listed as the 13th running back off the board in ESPN’s projected draft landing between the 11th and 16th picks.
D’Andre Swift
Chicago native D’Andre Swift came home as a free agent after signing with the Chicago Bears. Playing for his third team following three years with the Detroit Lions and last season with the Philadelphia Eagles, this signing looks like an advantageous reboot for the NFL Veteran. Although his tenure with the Lions was repeatedly compromised by injuries and competition for touches, as an Eagle, he had his best season with 1,049 yards rushing on 229 carries and five touchdowns plus another 214 yards receiving on 39/49 targets and one touchdown. It’s anticipated that Swift will have the starting assignment and share touches with Khalil Herbert and second-year running back Roschon Johnson. The Bears offense is expected to be much stronger with the excitement surrounding the signing of number one draft pick Caleb Williams as their franchise quarterback. ESPN Fantasy’s number 22 running back, Swift is predicted to go off the board somewhere between number 20-25.
Any of the above veterans have the talent and stat history to complement a fantasy manager’s team. Each of these players has the potential to enjoy a boom season with their new team. Hopefully, the change of scenery and a different coaching staff will bring out the best in these five running backs.
Main Image: Andrew Nelles / USA TODAY NETWORK
