Whether someone only casually bets baseball or is diving into the advanced box scores each and every night, there is probably a certain sportsbook promo everyone has heard about; Dinger Tuesday. FanDuel’s coveted promo began a couple of seasons ago, which gives bettors incentive to place a “To Hit a Home Run” bet on a player, with the chance to get their money back if the bet loses. This works by placing a $25+ wager on someone to hit a home run in a game and receive $5 in bonus bets for each home run hit in the game by either team, regardless of whether the original home run bet wins or loses. Not only is it a great promo due to home runs being inherently fun, but because it also offers some insurance on losing your wager.
Not all games are equal when it comes to home runs, however. There are several different factors to take into consideration when placing Dinger Tuesday bets, several of which aren’t just related to whomever you choose to hit a home run that day, so it is best to preview the data and situational factors beforehand.
Dinger Tuesday: Preview and Best Bets
Home run factor #1) The Hitter
Of course, the top factor in placing best bets for the Dinger Tuesday promo starts with the hitters themselves. While people have different methods of which specific stats to use when predicting home runs, it comes down to a few key factors. First, you have to have someone who is hitting the ball hard enough to go over the fence. Whether a batter is “good” or not in terms of average or slugging matters less in this instance, as they have to show they can hit the ball hard with enough velocity to go far enough for a home run. Some statistics to consider when deciding what players have that ability include:
- Exit Velocity (EV)
- Max Exit Velocity (Max EV)
- Hard-Hit Rate (HH%)
- Barrel rate
The second most important factor for the hitter is whether or not they get the ball off the ground enough for a home run. A hitter could show great exit velocity or barrel rate, but that won’t matter if they aren’t ever hitting the ball high enough to go over the fence. The statistics to consider here are:
- Launch Angle (LA)
- Ground ball rate (GB%)
- Line drive rate (LD%)
- Fly ball rate (FB%)
Home run factor #2) The Pitcher
The same factors apply to the pitchers the batters will be facing. When making home run bets for Dinger Tuesday, targeting pitchers who let hitters make hard, elevated contact is crucial. This can be tricky, as some pitchers will show mixed signals in their profiles. Some of the best pitchers will show they allow harder contact rates and exit velocity, but that can be because they are strikeout artists who are aggressively attacking batters. This can be used to your benefit, betting on batters who don’t whiff or strike out often, but they and their teammates will probably be getting fewer opportunities to put the ball in play at all, limiting the utilization of the Dinger Tuesday promo. On the other hand, other hurlers pitch to contact, even allowing some higher hard-hit rates, but excel at keeping the ball on the ground. It is normally better to target pitchers who don’t do either well, which makes practical sense, because pitchers who don’t strike out a lot of batter or keep the ball on the ground are usually struggling overall, making them great targets for home run bets.
Home run factor #3) The Ballpark + Weather
Maybe the most overlooked point when betting home runs, especially for Dinger Tuesday, are ballpark and weather factors. Unlike a football field or a basketball court, each ballpark is built and shaped differently, which can highly affect home runs. Normally, the Colorado Rockies’ Coors Field is ideal for home runs and is annually one of the top parks for them, due to it sitting 5,000+ feet above sea level, making the ball fly further in the thinner air. However, Colorado is cold for the first couple months of the season, making it something else to factor in before automatically betting the shorter home run prices the bookmakers set when playing at Coors Field. Some parks, like the Cincinnati Reds’ Great American Ballpark, are short parks in terms of distance with no other determining factors such as asymmetry or abnormal fence heights, making it an ideal park for home runs. On the other hand, parks can have disadvantages, such as the Oakland Coliseum’s large park overall with a massive outfield, or Fenway’s 37-foot tall “Green Monster” in left field. These can make or break a home run, especially when betting on someone who doesn’t have significant power in MLB terms.
Dinger Tuesday: Best Bets
Home run bet #1) Christian Walker (+310)
While it isn’t great to play much chalk when betting on home runs, Christian Walker is worth a play despite the short price. Walker will be playing in the aforementioned Great American Ballpark, yearly one of the best parks for home runs (making it a good target for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo where you get $5 back for each home run hit). He is in the midst of a good stretch of contact, where in his last five games Walker has hit eight balls 100+ mph, with a combined fly ball and line drive average exit velocity of 103 mph. This includes two home runs in one game last week where had three balls hit 100+ mph, which is something he just did in his last game on Sunday, setting up for a great spot to hit another tonight.
Home run bet #2) William Contreras (+520)
When talking about the best players in the MLB so far in 2024, William Contreras is one of the first names brought up. Contreras is hitting for an absurd .328 average, along with having a .507 slugging percentage, putting him top-10 in most offensive categories and tied for the fifth most RBIs. While Contreras’ 51% ground ball rate is concerning when betting him to hit a home run, it can’t be ignored just how hard he is hitting overall. The 26-year-old slugger has nine balls in play hit over 100 mph the last five days, tied for 2nd in that span. While the ball has to be hit in the air to go out, extremely hard contact is usually a good indicator that a home run is looming. Of the 12 players with seven or more 100+ mph balls hit the last five days, only three haven’t hit a home run during those games, one being Contreras, making him very due to hit one soon.
Home run bet #3) Manny Machado (+340)
While it is another short price, Manny Machado is a good look for a home run tonight. Machado gets a tougher assignment in having to face budding star Shota Imanaga, it can’t be overlooked how well he has made contact against southpaws this season. When facing left-handed pitching this year, Machado has an average fly ball and line drive exit velocity of 97 mph and is hitting a fly ball 44% of the time. Imanaga has been great at racking up strikeouts this year, but this aggressive approach also has left him allowing fairly hard contact (bottom 37% of pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed) that has often been in the air, shown by his low ground ball rate. Another reason to target this game is how receptive Wrigley Field is to wind, making home runs more likely overall when the wind is blowing out like it is today, giving bettors better chances of taking advantage of FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo.
Home run bet #4) LaMonte Wade Jr. (+600)
While there are a couple more obvious home run targets on the San Francisco Giants tonight, the price on LaMonte Wade Jr. is too good to pass up. Wade Jr. has been on a tear the last four series, with an average exit velocity of 92.68 mph in his last four series when facing right-handed pitching. This also includes only three ground balls in his last 14 batted balls, so he has been hitting the ball both very hard and in the air. That should bode well tonight when he will take on a middling right-handed pitcher in Dakota Hudson, who ranks in the bottom 28% of all pitchers this year in hard-hit rate allowed. Not to mention that this game will be played in Denver at Coors Field, so the thin air may help carry out Wade Jr.’s recent hard-hit line drives and fly balls.
Main Image: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
