5 Best NBA Win Total Bets

As much as it feels like the Boston Celtics were just crowned champions, the start of the next NBA season is less than two months away. That means that it is time to put your bets in now and prepare for the return of basketball. But which teams should your money be on? Which teams will underperform and outperform their expectations? What are the five best win total bets ahead of the NBA season?

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5 Best NBA Win Total Bets

(Lines via Fanduel Sportsbook)

Dallas Mavericks OVER 49.5

After reassembling their roster last year at the trade deadline, Dallas went 21-9 in the second half of the regular season- the third-best record in the league during that stretch. They were top ten in both defensive and offensive ratings and won 70 percent of their games, a 57.4-win pace in an 82-game season. Oh, and the Mavericks also made it to the NBA finals. A flip was switched at the trade deadline, and Dallas didn’t look back.

In the offseason, the Mavericks replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., and Josh Green with Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, and Naji Marshall. Jones Jr. is a painful loss that likely will show up at points next season, but the Mavericks received a net benefit. These three additions will complement Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic perfectly, and I expect the post-deadline Mavericks to be the norm. Doncic seems destined to win an MVP at some point in his career, and this might be the year. As long as the Mavericks stay healthy, they should soar over 50 wins.

Confidence: 10/10

Denver Nuggets UNDER 51.5

Taking the under on a team led by a three-time MVP may seem risky, but the Nuggets seem bound for regression. The most apparent reason for this is due to the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Caldwell-Pope was one of two of the Nugget’s high-volume shooters who eclipsed 40 percent from three last year and was Denver’s primary lead defender. Replacing him will be hard, and the Nuggets are now relying on young guys like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson to make significant improvements. Even if these players do take steps forward and Denver proves to be a legitimate title contender, the growing pains of an inexperienced and new team are bound to happen.

In addition, the Nuggets made it clear that they were tired in last year’s playoffs. They were tired from a championship the year before and tired from a long regular season. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver chose to rest their guys more this year. Home-court advantage seems to have little-to-no impact anymore, so the Nuggets sneaking into the playoffs with 47 or 48 wins and well-rested players may be beneficial in the long run. As good as Nikola Jokic is, the league is improving while the Nuggets are getting worse- another 50-win season is unlikely.

Confidence: 8/10

Golden State Warriors OVER 43.5

The Warriors are similar to the Mavericks in terms of post-deadline improvement. After a first half filled with Draymond Green drama, the Warriors went 22-11 after the trade deadline, a 54.7 win pace. In fact, the Warriors went 33-22 with Green, but without him, they went 13-14. I know it seems like insanity to say, but the Warriors will win games if Green can keep his cool next season.

Furthermore, 43.5 seems way too low, given that the Warriors won 46 games last season and got much deeper in the offseason. Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson should prove to be important rotation pieces, and one can expect improvement from Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Kuminga is the one that has already shown superstar potential and could easily be a 20 points per game scorer next season. If Kuminga can turn into a consistent second option next to Stephen Curry, Green, and Jackson-Davis can control the center spot, and Andrew Wiggins can provide some signs of life, the Warriors might be a dangerous sleeper in the Western Conference.

Confidence: 9/10

Brooklyn Nets UNDER 19.5

There has been a team under 20 wins in each of the past two seasons; this year, that is the Brooklyn Nets. Trading Mikal Bridges and then trading for their own first-round picks was a telltale sign that the Nets don’t plan on winning any time soon; instead, they have chosen the Cooper Flagg route and are again entering a rebuild. They had their chance with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, but now will return to being the little brother of New York.

The plan next season seems to be giving Cam Thomas the ball as much as he wants, and that simply isn’t a winning formula. They have good role players- such as Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith– but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them traded sometime soon. The Nets are trying to tear down their roster and lose games, so betting their under is just buying into what the front office is saying. Just comparing last year’s bottomfeeders of the league with this year’s Nets, it becomes evident that Brooklyn is worse than Detroit and Washington teams that won 14 and 15 games, respectively.

Confidence: 8/10

Orlando Magic OVER 47.5

The Magic won 47 games last year with one of the best defenses in the league yet one of the worst offenses. They ranked 26th in the NBA in terms of three-point shooting and 27th in assist-to-turnover ratio while having the third-best defensive rating. If the Magic can maintain a top-ten defense while improving their offense to even league average, they will go over their win total.

The addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will help a lot of these issues. As much as he was a loss for the Nuggets, Caldwell-Pope is an elite signing by the Magic. His shooting will drastically improve Orlando’s spacing and take some of the burden off Paolo Banchero’s shoulders. His veteran savviness should help point guards Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony with playmaking, and the turnovers should decrease. The addition of Caldwell-Pope, as well as improvements from young stars like Franz Wagner and Banchero, should only make the Magic better. Due to this, even in a more competitive Eastern Conference, 50 wins is on the table for Orlando.

Confidence: 8/10

In a league that features upwards of 24 teams trying to make the play-in, wins are as valuable as ever. One game can be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, just ask the Sacramento Kings. There are no days off in today’s NBA.

Main Image:  Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports