With Week 6 in the books, the college football season is halfway through. Now the margin for error is shrinking for AP Top 25 teams bidding for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Week 7 features six matchups between ranked opponents, with major implications for the Playoff race, conference standings, and national championship aspirations. However, some AP Top 25 matchups against unranked opponents will be season-defining, as a loss could significantly derail their Playoff chances. While every game matters at this stage, some teams face far greater pressure to win than others.
As the second half of the season begins, here are the five AP Top 25 teams facing must-win games in Week 7.
AP Top 25 Teams Facing Must-Win Games In Week 7
1. No. 22 LSU
After Kentucky upset them last week, LSU‘s College Football Playoff hopes hang by a thread. They probably need to win out now to have any chance at the Playoff, starting this week against No. 16 Mississippi State.
This isn’t a spot LSU expected to be in at this point in the season, after working their way up to No. 7 after the first two weeks, before losing their game against Ole Miss. Since then, the Tigers have struggled as they still haven’t won a road game this season. They have also fallen in the AP Poll from No. 7 to No. 22 and now have two SEC losses that essentially eliminate them from the SEC Championship game, and they need a lot of help to make it.
LSU’s playoff hopes took a major hit when Kentucky upset them in overtime with a game-winning two-point conversion. This loss gives the Tigers a 1-2 record in SEC play and puts them at 11th in the conference standings. Now, they can’t afford a third loss, as no three-loss team has ever made the Playoff without playing in its conference championship game. Fortunately, they have a chance to save their season for now against a Mississippi State team that may be without starting quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Even though the Tigers now face a must-win scenario every game, this matchup matters because beating a ranked Mississippi State team could help them climb in the AP Top 25 poll. It would also build confidence as they still have to play Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee this season. LSU’s path to the Playoff isn’t easy, as another loss would realistically knock them out of the SEC Championship game. However, this team has the talent to win out, which should be enough to have a resume that helps them make the Playoff.
2. No. 12 UCLA
UCLA has been one of the biggest surprises this season, going from one of the Big Ten’s worst teams last season to one of the conference’s best. First-year head coach Bob Chesney deserves a lot of credit for turning the program around and putting it in the College Football Playoff conversation. However, despite their unbeaten record, they can’t afford to have a letdown this week as they take on unranked Wisconsin.
The Bruins have done an amazing job to get to this point in the season as they have gone from unranked at the start to No. 12 in the span of six weeks. They have won all their games convincingly, led by running back Wayne Knight, who has scored 11 touchdowns this season and made UCLA’s running game one of the best in the country. They finally broke through last week, defeating No. 13 Oregon. Still, now they will need to be at their best against a dangerous Wisconsin team, especially without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is dealing with a lower-body injury.
Despite being unranked, Wisconsin has been strong this season, holding off Notre Dame for the first half before losing and beating Penn State on the road. Their defense has been among the best in the country, allowing 16.6 points and 152.6 passing yards per game and ranking ninth nationally. This is also an important game for Wisconsin, as a win over UCLA could put them in playoff contention, making it a must-win for both teams.
One of the biggest reasons UCLA is in must-win territory this week is their remaining schedule: they don’t face another ranked team until the last week of the season against USC. With few chances to strengthen their resume, the Bruins will struggle to earn an at-large bid unless they reach the Big Ten Championship game. To do that, they will need to finish the season unbeaten, especially since Ohio State or Indiana will get their first conference loss. UCLA has a big opportunity to strengthen its position, but first it must get past Wisconsin.
3. No. 20 Houston
Houston was among this year’s dark horses to win the Big 12 heading into the season after the team won 10 games in head coach Willie Fritz’s second year. They have stayed in the Top 25 since the start of the season, when they were ranked No. 23. They are now ranked No. 20. Still, due to their loss to Texas Tech earlier in the season, the Cougars have little room for error if they want to remain in contention for the Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth, with a matchup against No.18 Oklahoma State looming.
This week, the Cougars face an Oklahoma State team that has won four straight, including an upset over Oregon. This is a must-win, as another loss would realistically knock them out of contention for the Big 12 Championship Game, especially with five teams currently unbeaten, including Oklahoma State. This is also a huge opportunity to move up in the AP Top 25 poll as they try to strengthen their resume.
Houston has the talent to make a run in the Big 12, with one of the nation’s most potent offenses, scoring 40 points per game and ranked 15th in the country. Despite losing to Texas Tech, they played them close in this road game, led 10-0 after the first quarter, then fell by two. They have beaten all their opponents by 10 or more points and are coming off a big road win against Kansas State, where many people thought they were on upset alert.
They need this win not only to keep their Playoff hopes alive, but also to build confidence heading into another must-win game against No. 11 Utah next week. Stars like quarterback Conner Weigman and wide receiver Amare Thomas will lead them through this difficult stretch, and this matchup against Oklahoma State will be their defining moment this season.
4. No. 24 SMU
This season, everyone expected Miami to dominate the ACC after it made the national championship game, and the bigger question was who would challenge them. SMU was one of those teams, and after five games, it has a huge opportunity to push for the College Football Playoff, starting this week against Virginia.
Despite one loss in ACC play, SMU still has a strong chance to make the ACC Championship Game, as every team in the conference except Miami has at least one loss. This week, the Mustangs take on a Virginia team that, despite being unranked, has one ACC loss and was previously ranked. This matchup will have huge implications: the winner will still have a path to the ACC Championship Game, while the loser will need help to get there.
Despite having no ranked wins right now, the Mustangs are still considered among the best teams in the country, ranked No. 24. They also have a chance to boost their resume by facing No. 2 Notre Dame in their second-to-last game of the season.
SMU still has a path to the College Football Playoff despite one loss, but it can no longer afford another conference loss, or it will no longer control its destiny. Quarterback Kevin Jennings and the rest of the team must play at their best for the rest of the season, as they will face three ACC teams with one conference loss, just like them. They cannot afford a loss to Virginia, or they will not only fall out of the AP Top 25 poll but also kill any hope of making the Playoff.
5. No. 9 Ole Miss
Ole Miss might be the No. 9 team in the AP Top 25 poll, but because they play in a loaded SEC Conference, they have little room for error, as three of their next four opponents are ranked in the top 15 of the AP Top 25 poll, including this week’s opponent, No. 13 Missouri. For that reason, the Rebels must win this week.
The Rebels looked like one of the four best teams in the country through the first three weeks, with two wins over ranked opponents, including LSU. However, in Week 4, they suffered a major setback before their bye week, losing to Florida and dropping out of the top four in the AP Top 25 poll, leaving them with less room for error in the SEC. They responded with a blowout win over Vanderbilt to stay in the SEC Championship Game race.
However, they still face a tough road to make the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. After facing Missouri, they will face No. 7 Texas next week and then No. 1 Georgia, games that could determine their national championship hopes. A win over a ranked Missouri team would give them some breathing room heading into those matchups, while a loss would put even more pressure on them to pull off an upset in the weeks ahead.
Their game against Missouri will be a tough test, as they blew out Florida and Texas A&M in their last two games since losing to Mississippi State. Quarterback Austin Simmons and running back Jamal Roberts are one of the most lethal duos in college football, with Roberts scoring eight touchdowns. He also ranks second in the nation in rushing yards and carries with 828 yards and 147 carries. Ole Miss will need to be at their best to win and move up in the AP Top 25 poll. The stakes couldn’t be higher for either team, especially Ole Miss.
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