Yankees O/U

2026 New York Yankees O/U: Why They Will Take A Step Backwards This Season

The window for winning the World Series is closing rapidly for the New York Yankees.

Two years ago, the Bronx Bombers made it to the World Series, and last season, despite battling inconsistency and injuries, the Yankees finished with a 94-68 record but lost a tiebreaker to the Toronto Blue Jays for first in the AL East Division.

In capturing an AL Wild Card spot, New York would go on to defeat the Boston Red Sox in a winner-take-all Game 3 before having their quest for a World Series title end with a ALDS (American League Division Series) loss against the Blue Jays.

Heading into this new season, the Yankees O/U have been set at 90.5 wins but will fall short due mainly to an aging core group of player and questions about starting pitching.

Yankees Will Hit the Under on Their O/U Projected Win Total

 

New York Yankees Dealing With Starting Pitching Injuries

Their two fearsome sluggers, which consists of  Giancarlo Stanton (36 years old) and Aaron Judge (turning 34 in April)  both battled long term injuries last season and are in their 30’s means their best days could be behind them. Meanwhile Ryan McMahon (32 years old), Amed Rosario (30 years old), and pitchers Gerrit Cole (35 years old), Max Fried (32 years old), Carlos Rodon (33 years old), Clarke Schmidt (30 years old) and stopper David Bednar (32 years old) are all 30 and over.

Meanwhile, there are several question marks with the starting rotation, where Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA, 203 K’s), Schmidt (4-4, 3.32 ERA, 73 K’s in 14 starts) and Cole (missed all of last season) will all be sidelined when the season starts.

Rodon underwent surgery last October to remove a bone spur in the left elbow. He is not expected back until approximately early May.

Last year, Schmidt’s season ended on July 10th , when he underwent a second Tommy John surgery, and he is aiming to be back this season around the All-Star Break.

The biggest loss last season was Cole, who last spring had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire year. He is expected back in May at the absolute earliest.

Another potential issue surrounding a starting pitcher is Fried and his history of blister issues on his left index finger, which had him spend time on the disabled list. With so many starters on the shelf to begin the season, Fried will be heavily counted on.

Will Yankees Shortstop Anthony Volpe Rebound From Tough Season?

Following a tough season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe which saw the 2023 AL Gold Glove Award winning shortstop uncharacteristically make 19 errors, he is feeling optimistic about bouncing back.

Volpe, who at times was criticized by fans and media along with being mentioned in various trade rumors, will also be looking to rebound from off-season surgery on a partially torn labrum in his shoulder. Currently, he is rehabbing and won’t be beginning his minor league conditioning rehab until sometime around mid-May.

Once considered a can’t miss shortstop, Volpe, who hit only ,212 last season will find himself competing with the likes of Jose Caballero when he finally returns to the big club.

Yankees Looking For pitcher Cam Schlittler To Take That Next Step

When Schmidt got injured last season, it opened the door for fireballer Cam Schlittler and the 25 year-old didn’t disappoint.

Right from the start, Schlittler showed that he belonged as this 2022 Yankees seventh round pick made his debut in July against the Seattle Mariners where he struck out seven in 5 1/3 innings in getting his first MLB win. Schlittler would go on to make 14 starts where he ended up with a respectable 4-3 record along with a 2.96 ERA.

Schlittler’s finest hour in Yankee pinstripes came in the AL Wild Card Series when in the deciding Game 3, he struck out 12 batters and allowed only five hits through eight shutout innings in pacing the Yankees to a 4-0 series win against the Red Sox.

The good news for Yankee fans is that in Schlittler’s final start of the spring, he averaged 97.5 mph on his four-seam fastball as he threw 3 2/3 shutout innings.

Can Yankees Outfielder Trent Grisham Have Repeat Performance?

Last season, at the age of 28, Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham emerged with a solid year which saw him set career bests with 116 hits, 34 home runs and 74 RBI’s.

Grisham, who is a two-time Gold Glove winner (2020, 2022), re-signed with the Bronx Bombers for one-year at $22 million. The million-dollar question is whether he can build off that career season or if it was just a one year thing.

In a stunning turn of events, New York Post reporter Greg Joyce pointed to Grisham as the Yankee player “most likely to disappoint” this season.

An article written by Joyce on March 23 said,  “Nobody expected much out of Trent Grisham entering last season, only for the center fielder to grab an everyday role and crush 34 home runs, doubling his previous career high.” He also added, “That resulted in the Yankees making him the $22.025 million qualifying offer and Grisham accepting, turning up the heat on him to produce at a similar clip in 2026. The Yankees believe his breakout season was not a fluke, but if he does not match that .811 OPS, there will be renewed questions about whether the Yankees made a mistake with the qualifying offer.”

Yankees Re-Sign Veteran Outfielder Cody Bellinger

The Yankees biggest offseason move was re-signing veteran free agent outfielder Cody Bellinger.

Last season, which was his first in Yankee pinstripes the 30 year-old enjoyed a solid season which saw him hit 29 home runs, 98 RBIs, 160 hits and a .272 batting average. On January 26th, Bellinger made it official when he re-signed with the Yankees a five-year deal worth $162.5 million with an opt-out after both the second and third year where he can once again become a free agent.

This was a great move by the Yankees as Bellinger is a former Gold Glove outfield who is still strong defensively and is a professional hitter.

Season Prognosis

As mentioned, the biggest concern has to be starting the season with three injured starters.

If Judge and Stanton stay healthy and first baseman/catcher/DH Ben Rice continues to develop, the Yankees, who are playing in the toughest division will finish with about 88 wins.

Main Image: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images