It’s still a little weird to think about the Atlanta Braves as anything other than a 95-win juggernaut, right? For years, they’ve been the NL East standard-bearer. However, if you’re looking at the betting markets for the 2026 season, specifically that 87.5 win total, there are some sneaky (and not-so-sneaky) reasons to think the under is the move.
While this O/U is admittedly one of the tougher ones to call because of the Braves high-ceiling potential, many analysts are leaning toward the under. After an injury-riddled 2025 where the seven-year playoff streak ended, 2026 is feeling less like a guaranteed “bounce-back” year and more like a pivotal point where depth issues could catch up to them yet again. Here is a look at why the Braves might go under 87.5 wins in 2026.
2026 Atlanta Braves O/U: Why It Could Be Another Disappointing Season
1. The Injury Bug Won’t Let Go
The 2025 season was a nightmare of missed time, and that baggage is carrying over into 2026. One of the best young pitchers in the game, Spencer Schwellenbach, is already set to miss a massive chunk of the year with elbow issues, while fellow pitcher Hurston Waldrep, who was exceptional for Atlanta last season, is also starting the season on the 60-day IL.
It’s also dangerous to assume that Spencer Strider will immediately become the Cy Young contender he was in 2023. Not only will Strider begin the season on the IL, but his fastball velocity remains below where it was pre-injury and it may take even more time for Strider to figure out how to adjust to this. I do think Strider will be solid, but his 97-99 mph fastball days may be over.
The Braves lost over 14 wins of projected WAR to injuries in 2025, and with a core that’s aging and playing through previous injuries, relying on them to stay healthy is a massive gamble.
2. The Shortstop Merry-Go-Round
Remember when shortstop was a solidified position? The plan to start 2026 with Ha-Seong Kim took a nosedive when he suffered a hand injury in Korea. The Braves are looking to Mauricio Dubon to fill that spot until at least May.
Dubon is a serviceable utility player, but asking him to be an everyday starter to open the season, on a team that needs to win immediately, is different from having a true elite shortstop. Jorge Mateo was also brought in for depth, but the infield feels patchwork, not commanding, to start the year.
3. A Tough NL East
The days of beating up on the NL East are long gone. The Philadelphia Phillies remain a powerhouse, and the New York Mets have emerged as a serious contender. Not only are the Mets a serious contender, they are now considered the favorites to win the division, as they’ve made some moves that make them dangerous.
Most projections have the Braves only being the third best team in the division. Atlanta can always beat up on the Miami Marlins though, right? Maybe not, the Marlins are improving and are considered a potential sleeper team by many. If Atlanta splits or loses season series to all three of these teams, getting to 88 wins becomes a steep uphill climb.
4. Sale Isn’t Getting Any Younger
Chris Sale has been nothing short of spectacular since joining the Braves, but it’s important to remember he’ll be 37 years old this season. While he still has elite ability, he’s not exactly a bastion of durability.
If Sale misses 10 weeks or more again, as he did with a rib injury in 2025, the pitching depth becomes a problem. Relying on pitchers in their late 30s to carry a staff to 90+ wins is a tough bet to make, particularly when the rotation behind him is filled with hopeful recoveries.
Ever since Sale joined the Braves, it feels like he has had to put the team on his back when he’s on the mound, and he’s answered the call almost every single time. However, if he begins to show his age at all, someone else will have to step up and there’s just too many concerns with the rest of the rotation.
5. Roster Depth is Questionable
Alex Anthopoulos is a wizard, but even wizards run out of magic. The bench to start the 2026 season includes guys like Dominic Smith and Kyle Farmer. These are solid veteran role players, but not the kind of depth that fuels a 90-win season like the Braves are accustomed to.
The team had to make roster cuts that saw talented prospects and decent depth pieces get reassigned. If a starter goes down, or if the infield scenario breaks down, the drop-off to the next guy in line is significant. Let’s be honest, all of the Braves core pieces, except for Matt Olson, have a lengthy injury history, so there is a strong possibility that their depth will get exposed at some point this season.
6. The Underperforming Trend
Sometimes a team is good on paper but just…doesn’t do it. The 2025 Braves were supposed to be better, but they finished 76-86. Early projections might show the Braves competing for the division, but that relies on a massive rebound from Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies. If that rebound is just an average season, or if they struggle, this team could easily float in the 84-87 win range.
I want this team to succeed and the potential to blow the 87.5 number out of the water is certainly there, but if you take the over, then you’re asking a lot of guys to stay healthy that just haven’t shown the ability to do so lately. There are just too many “what-ifs” on this team, so I’ll be taking the under and hoping that they prove me wrong.
Main Image: © Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
