The 2024 Cleveland Guardians won the American League Central for the fifth time in nine seasons and had their deepest run since losing the 2016 World Series. American League Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt ushered in a new era of Guardians baseball with the way that he empowered every one of the 50 players to come through the clubhouse door. This was not a 92-win roster, but it was led by one of the best bullpens we’ve ever seen and some productive situational hitting.
Now fast forward to this season. According to FanDuel, the Guardians’ total wins are projected at 82.5. I can understand why the betting markets are down on Cleveland’s ability to repeat last season’s success and are expecting something closer to .500. The Guardians traded Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez in moves that could be viewed as cost-cutting measures. Postseason hero David Fry is also out for a while after Tommy John surgery and 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is still recovering from his. Despite that, this projection is too low, and here are some reasons why.
2025 Cleveland Guardians O/U: Why the Guardians Will Hit the OVER
The Roster is Strong Enough to Win 83 Games
The Guardians are the defending divisional champions. Yes, they lost some players, but this team does bring back a lot of its core from a team that just won 92 games and went a respectable 30-22 against the American League Central in 2024. They also added Carlos Santana, while he may not be able to replace Josh Naylor’s offensive production, he is a clear defensive upgrade at first base and a guy who will continue to draw walks and hit somewhere around 20 home runs.
A full season of Lane Thomas should be able to help, as he struggled badly after the trade from the Nationals, but he came around late in the year and carried that into the playoffs. Tanner Bibee is one of the reasons why this team is good, as he went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA last season. Bibee has a good fastball and an above-average cutter and slider. Ben Lively is a candidate to take his game to the next level after going 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA over 29 starts. He thrived with a 90 MPH fastball and a barrel rate of 6.5 percent.
The Bullpen
The Guardians’ bullpen did a tremendous amount of heavy lifting in 2024. Emmanuel Clase dominated again, with 47 saves in 50 chances. He produced an elite cutter that fooled hitters regularly. Cade Smith struck out nearly 36 percent of the hitters he faced in his rookie season while working in important roles in the back end of the bullpen. Ultimately, he only did it with a strong fastball and a good splitter. Look for him to improve and possibly add another pitch to his repertoire. Hunter Gaddis had increased velocity and a good slider that thrived under pressure. Additionally, Tim Herrin had a 1.92 ERA.
Andrew Walters, Erik Sabrowski, and newcomer Paul Sewald are in to offset the high workloads from the 2024 season. The two worst relievers, Nick Sandlin and Scott Barlow are both gone too. This was a bullpen that ranked 4th in ERA last season and you could make the case that this bullpen is even better this year on paper.
Cleveland’s Top Two Offensive Threats
Jose Ramirez was sensational last season, hitting 39 home runs, 118 runs batted in, and scoring 114 runs. If that’s not enough for you, he also stole 41 bases. This was Ramirez’s fourth consecutive season with at least 24 home runs, and he was incredibly close to having a 40-40 season. Look for one of the most consistent hitters in baseball to have another big year.
Steven Kwan is an elite leadoff hitter who draws a lot of walks and is a Gold Glove outfielder. Overall he had 14 home runs, 44 runs batted in, and 83 runs scored while swiping 14 bags. He is an extremely tough guy to strike out, making every at-bat difficult for opposing pitchers.
These two carry the Guardians’ offense at times and paired with the team’s great pitching, it turns out to be enough to win more times than not. The Guardians love what these two bring to the table.
Final Win Total
It is not far-fetched to believe that the Guardians can win the American League Central again. Yes, the offense will have cold stretches during the season, but that’s nothing that this team hasn’t already dealt with before. They have an elite top half of the rotation, along with what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Another interesting factor to consider is that Shane Bieber should be back from injury after the All-Star break for the stretch run. Realistically, a healthy Guardians team should win around 85-88 games, which should be enough to compete for the division or a wild card spot, but most importantly break the 82.5 projected win total.
Main Image: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
