The Cincinnati Reds head into the 2025 season with a new manager. Terry Francona, who spent more than a decade in Cleveland, takes over after David Bell was fired with just five games remaining in the 2024 season. Francona and the Guardians mutually parted ways at the end of the 2023 season so that the 65-year-old could step away to focus on his health. Francona is a candidate for Cooperstown and has an impressive resume that many managers would envy. He signed a three year deal with a club option and is committed to turning this team around after taking a year off from baseball.
The Reds have not won more than 83 games in a season since 2013 and have only had three winning seasons in that time frame. According to FanDuel, Cincinnati’s O/U win total has been set at 79.5, and considering recent results, this is a fair projection. Despite that, Cincinnati has made a lot of good under-the-radar moves this offseason and they will go over their projection. Here’s how the Reds will hit the over for wins in 2025.
2025 Cincinnati Reds O/U: Why the Reds Will Hit the OVER
Newcomers
Cincinnati brought in a few new faces to beef up the roster for the upcoming season. Former Kansas City Royals right-handed pitcher Brady Singer joined the rotation. Singer posted a solid 3.71 ERA over 32 starts last season, pitching nearly 180 innings. The Reds need innings eaters, as they haven’t had a pitcher throw more than 151 innings since 2021.
The Reds also swung a deal to acquire Gavin Lux from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The versatile 27-year-old can hit right-handed pitchers but was limited to just 50 plate appearances against lefties in 2024, so Cincinnati will likely use him in a platoon role. Lux is someone who can play a lot of different positions which is a valuable skill to have over a 162-game season where injuries are inevitable.
Cincinnati acquired Austin Hays as a free agent. The 29-year-old outfielder was squeezed out of the stacked Baltimore Orioles roster at the trade deadline last season and finished the 2024 season with the Philadelphia Phillies. This could be an underrated addition to the team. Hays dealt with a calf injury in 2024 and never fully got on track, however, Hays was a productive offensive threat the previous three seasons.
Despite having a down year in 2024, Hays still hit .354 against left-handed pitching and will now be playing half of his games in the Great American Ball Park, which is considered one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Hays could be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year with the opportunity to hit behind TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Elly De La Cruz.
The Reds Superstar
Is there a more exciting player than Elly De La Cruz? In 2024 De La Cruz finished batting .259 with 160 hits, 25 home runs, 76 runs batted in, and an incredible league-leading 67 stolen bases. De La Cruz also finished with a .339 on-base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage, adding up to an OPS of .813 and 4.4 WAR. He is a five-tool player and his talent is off the charts.
De La Cruz will be entering his third season in the big leagues and is the face of the Reds franchise as it’s attempting to build a team around the young star. De La Cruz is set to have another great season, barring any injuries, and the scary thing for the National League Central is that he hasn’t even hit his ceiling yet. He is a player that is on the cusp of being in the MVP discussion on a yearly basis.
Potential Players to Watch
Terry Francona has a history of unlocking his player’s full potential, and there are a few young guys on the roster who have the potential to step up in 2025. One of those players is starting left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo. The first-round pick out of TCU got called up to the big leagues in 2022 and made 19 starts, going 4-7 with an impressive 3.66 ERA, and an 11.41 K/9. To put that into perspective, last year’s National League Cy Young winner Chris Sale, had an 11.4 K/9.
A stress reaction in his left tibia derailed Lodolo’s 2023 campaign. In 2024, Lodolo returned to form as he was racking up the strikeouts with a 9.52 K/9 to go with a 4.76 ERA. Lodolo was a bit unlucky, as his expected earned run average was 3.72, showing potential signs of progression heading into the 2025 season.
Another name to watch in 2025 is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He entered the 2024 season with the prospect of being a 30-home-run hitter after hitting 13 home runs in 63 games for the Reds in 2023, following his promotion from the Minors. Before the call-up, he had hit 20 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. Unfortunately, a wrist injury limited him to 29 games last year, and we failed to see what Encarnacion-Strand could do over a full season. He appears to be entering the season healthy and the potential to be a great hitter is still there.
Final Win Total
To say that the Reds could win the National League Central may not be as far-fetched as some may think. On paper, the division is wide open. Keep in mind that Terry Francona took over a 68-win team in Cleveland and turned them into a 92-win season in his first season. The Reds have made good offseason moves to improve the roster and they have a few young, high-ceiling players that could thrive under a good coaching staff. To say that Francona can immediately turn the Reds into a 92-win team is a little too bold for my taste, but this team has more than enough to win 82-85 games, breaking the 79.5 projected win total.
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