The New York Yankees are the most successful franchise in baseball history, boasting 27 World Series wins throughout the franchise’s 121 years of history. However, they’ve had little success recently. They had a disappointing 2023 season, finishing in fourth place in the AL East with an 82-80 record, effectively missing the playoffs, and finishing with their worst record since the 1992 season. FanDuel has set their O/U at 93.5, but judging by last season’s struggles, it’s hard to believe they’ll be able to make such a dramatic turnaround in just one season.
Here are some reasons why the Yankees will fall short of the 93.5-win mark in the upcoming season.
2024 New York Yankees O/U: Why the Yankees Will Hit the UNDER
Expectations Are Too High
As mentioned above, the expectations seem excessive considering this team finished the 2023 season just two games over the .500 mark. Sure, they made some great acquisitions during free agency, highlighted by the arrival of superstar Juan Soto, but it’s very rare in today’s game to see a team radically shift its momentum in just one season. Surely the Yankees will win more than the dismal 82 games they won last season, but reaching 94 wins following last season’s lackluster performance seems like a longshot.
Recent Lack of Success
Let’s not forget that the Yankees haven’t appeared in a World Series since 2009, when they won their 27th ring in six games against the Philadelphia Phillies. Even when they make the playoffs, they fall short of expectations. It’s extremely frustrating when your team can’t reach its goal; that frustration will be reflected on the field. As they come off a frustrating season where they finished second to last and missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season, expect the frustration to play a part in this season’s performance.
Pitching Has Room for Improvement
The Yankees have one of the most stacked lineups in baseball, with names like Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, and newly acquired outfielders Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo making up their starting nine. However, starting pitching is a big unknown heading into the season.
While they have a solid ace in Gerrit Cole, the rest of the rotation is filled with question marks. Carlos Rodón hasn’t been able to find his rhythm since arriving on the team last year via free agency, finishing his 2023 season with a 3-8 record and 6.85 ERA throughout 14 games; Néstor Cortés Jr. saw little action in an injury-riddled 2023 season, posting a 4.97 ERA over 12 starts; Clarke Schmidt has spent most of his major league career on the bullpen after struggling as a starter; and new acquisition Marcus Stroman will have to settle in quickly to avoid being hit around in a known batter-friendly ballpark like Yankee Stadium.
On the bullpen, we find even more question marks. They enter the season without a clear candidate for closer after missing out on star closer Josh Hader, who signed with the Houston Astros earlier in the year. Clay Holmes is the most likely to take on closing duties for the Yankees in 2024, as has been usual for the past four seasons. However, there are far better options for this job, as Holmes has blown eight saves and allowed 38 earned runs in the past two seasons, high numbers for a closer. Further worsening the situation, Tommy Kahnle is expected to start the season on the injured list, stripping the Yankees of their favorite setup man in their bullpen.
Injuries
This has been a recurring problem for the Yankees in recent seasons. Remember what happened in the 2022 season? Matt Carpenter, Lou Trivino, Andrew Benintendi, Anthony Rizzo, Judge, LeMahieu, Cortés, and Rodón were all injured at one point in the season. It’s easy to blame the training staff for these misfortunes, but it seems like the Yankees have almost been cursed at this point. It seems like the team can’t catch a break with the injuries. Expect more of the same in 2024.
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